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News From The 1930's

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http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/07/t...204-296-14.html

July 10th, 1930

Major stocks hit new highs for the current rally; attributed to optimism on business conditions. Current seasonal slowdown hoped to be low point of the depression; market also considered technically stronger due to recent liquidation. Also some news of increasing construction activity in June and higher freight traffic for week ended June 28. Strength in major industrials, rails and utilities.

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http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/07/t...204-296-14.html

July 10th, 1930

Major stocks hit new highs for the current rally; attributed to optimism on business conditions. Current seasonal slowdown hoped to be low point of the depression; market also considered technically stronger due to recent liquidation. Also some news of increasing construction activity in June and higher freight traffic for week ended June 28. Strength in major industrials, rails and utilities.

That's a pretty cool site.

Thanks for posting.

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That's a cool site, thanks for posting it.

Does anyone have a link to an image of the Dow Jones during the great depression?

I've seen our crash overlaying the 30's and it looked eerily similar. Wish I could find it again.

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That's a cool site, thanks for posting it.

Does anyone have a link to an image of the Dow Jones during the great depression?

I've seen our crash overlaying the 30's and it looked eerily similar. Wish I could find it again.

It should be up in the "favorite charts" pinned thread.

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It should be up in the "favorite charts" pinned thread.

I had a look through and coudn't see it. But hey! thanks for the heads up on that 'pinned' thread. I've been coming here for years and never been bothered to look at it before. Never noticed it.

So thanks, some interesting stuff on there.

From the blog highlighted by the OP, this point stands out. "Looking at the economy as a whole, GDP went down by 40% and unemployment went from around 3% to 24% ..."

Wonder if that's where we are heading.

Particularly like this chart from the pinned thread, showing up the how wrong they got the GDP projection fanchart figures for our crash.

IRGDPfan0508X2.gif

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One for the gold/silver bugs....

Saturday 11th July, 1930

Drastic fall in the price of silver has caused problems for countries that hold much of their savings in that form, including China, India, and Mexico.

and one for the Darwin awards

US has the world's only known deposit of helium, meaning world's airship operators will need to come to us or use highly dangerous inflammable gas, “because of which smoking must be prohibited in or near the huge gas bags.â€

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/07/s...486-253-11.html

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Wednesday, July 23, 1930: Dow 234.30. +5.01 (2.2%)

Market commentary:

Market opened at about the previous low levels with some further decline; increasing resistance to bear efforts as the morning progressed; rallies developed in recent trading favorites. Good news on steel encouraged bulls, as well as rumors of important operators "lining up their forces for another bullish demonstration;" rally broadened in the afternoon. Good rebounds from Monday lows in many majors. Banks and trusts higher.

Administration members reported telling Wall Street that business has turned corner, and should curve slowly upward until winter, becoming clearest in October. No forecast beyond that ventured. However, administration strenuously denies rumors of using "its influence to bring about organized support for the stock market."

Irving Trust July review says we may be entering "ultimate pit of the depression;" sees mostly bad news in June, including declines in most lines of business, lower commodity prices, stock market declines, and possible tariff reprisals. Nevertheless, advises remembering that "It is always darkest before dawn."

Sentiment improved by market support yesterday. Conservative observers still advise buying on dips and selling rallies, but if market can get above previous resistance, would be considered confirmation of uptrend and convert many observers to the bull side.

:unsure:

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/07/w...430-501-22.html

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That's a cool site, thanks for posting it.

Does anyone have a link to an image of the Dow Jones during the great depression?

I've seen our crash overlaying the 30's and it looked eerily similar. Wish I could find it again.

Lots of charts here on the pinned charts thread.

5th on down on my first post is the one you want. :rolleyes:

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I recently saw a chart on tele of interest rates and 'the major difference' between then and now. He argued very strongly that this was a signficantly different scenario, but the chart showed almost identical momentum however interest rates started at a different point. There was no difference! I am not sure whether the commentator was presenting a shakespearian double meaning (visual v verbal) in the newspeak world (he's very well regarded), but it was blindingly obvious that there is going to be a partial recovery followed by more trouble and that it will take a couple of years to sort out. Sorry can't find the chart.

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I check that site every day. July 21st 1930 had a good one:

Governor R.A. Young of Fed. Reserve Bd. warns banks to be careful about the increasing amount of loans against securities. About the crash last fall, says: "there is food for serious thought in the fact that, under our excellent banking system ... we nevertheless came to the brink of a collapse, had to resort to heroic action to prevent a panic, and were not able to avoid ... severe liquidation and what appears to be a business depression. Is this unavoidable? Is it necessary for this country to go through periods of reckless exuberance, accompanied by enormous credit expansion and fantastic levels of money rates that profoundly disturb the financial structure not only here but all over the world?" The cost of these episodes is paid in unemployment and worldwide depression. Reminds banks that security loans are safe only if a liquid market exists for the security; large scale sales can cause a drop in value, "and there is no telling when such a drop may terminate and what catastrophe may follow ..." Calls on banks not to assume Fed will always be able to help them, since its resources are "not inexhaustible."

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I check that site every day. July 21st 1930 had a good one:

Governor R.A. Young of Fed. Reserve Bd. warns banks to be careful about the increasing amount of loans against securities. About the crash last fall, says: "there is food for serious thought in the fact that, under our excellent banking system ... we nevertheless came to the brink of a collapse, had to resort to heroic action to prevent a panic, and were not able to avoid ... severe liquidation and what appears to be a business depression. Is this unavoidable? Is it necessary for this country to go through periods of reckless exuberance, accompanied by enormous credit expansion and fantastic levels of money rates that profoundly disturb the financial structure not only here but all over the world?" The cost of these episodes is paid in unemployment and worldwide depression. Reminds banks that security loans are safe only if a liquid market exists for the security; large scale sales can cause a drop in value, "and there is no telling when such a drop may terminate and what catastrophe may follow ..." Calls on banks not to assume Fed will always be able to help them, since its resources are "not inexhaustible."

I didn't see that one. Great quote FT.

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Becoming my favourite blog......

Yesterday's idiots.....

Baar, Cohen & Co. believe stocks headed higher, “and we think within a few days sufficient momentum will be generated on the bull side to start the advance in earnest.†Foresee general business improvement, even if only seasonal, and halt in commodity price decline.

J. Barringer, National Cash Register GM, optimistic on foreign sales, and on general business outlook in Europe. “Germany, in my belief, is recovering from the world-wide depression, and France seems to be entirely over it.†Believes US depression has hit bottom and “we are slowly but surely on the upward trend.â€

sanity.....

E. Woollen, Pres. Fletcher Savings & Trust, catalogs some of the follies recently committed by businessmen: thinking rate of business in early 1929 could last; thinking the depression was caused by the market crash (the crash came 4 months after the depression had inexorably started); thinking the depression was caused by bad psychology; thinking our economy independent of the rest of the worlds';"mortgaging future income for luxuries.â€

and deflationary clues.....wholesale prices , freight, bankruptcy. Good indicators today.

General wholesale price level declined in July, and in last week of July was almost 20% below 1929 level. Wholesale prices of farm products fell 10% between June 15 and July 15, to postwar low of 111% of 1913 level, and declined further to 109% in last week of July. Farm prices rebounded to 112% in early August, while non-agricultural prices continued to decline.

Volume of freight traffic handled by class 1 rails in June was 34,419B ton miles, down 15.5% from 1929; first half was 212.251B ton miles, down 11%.

Bankruptcy cases pending as of June 30 were 61,430 vs. 59,113 in 1929. Liabilities in cases concluded were $948.3M vs. $883.6M in 1929.

tax receipts down, spending up

Federal expenditures for July and first 15 days of August were $403.1M, up $29.1M from 1929; total receipts were $197.4M, down $54.8M; customs receipts were down over $36M.

and one comedy idea that would never work

New wingless aircraft based on rotor principle being tested at Mamaroneck; backed by Walter P. Chrysler and H.E. Talbott, Jr.

!

Edited by MrB

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and this!!

Financiers and economists “somewhat befuddledâ€

by current business situation; economy has descended from “the heights of the greatest business prosperity the world has seen,†and it's difficult to “get their bearings in the new scheme of things.†Most are “watching and waiting rather than predicting.†Of course, things will eventually turn around, “and when the upturn does come it will be based on the most solid foundations in many years.†In the meantime, the market is marking time.

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