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Home Loan Squeeze

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Article in today's FT, couldn't find it in the on-line section so here's the salient paragraph.

"Robin Hardy, a broker at KBC Peel Hunt, says that the fundamental supply-and-demand balance in the housing market has changed for the first time in decades. Analysts put the natural churn rate of the UK housing market-the number of sales made because of births, deaths, and marriages plus moving out-at about 900,000 to 1.2m transactions a year.

Prices should tend to rise as long as the number of mortgages being written stays above that rate-as it has done since 1982, with the exception of a period in the early 1990's when it averaged 866,000.

But last year, according to the CML, the figure dropped to 517,000, the lowest since 1974.

In the first five months of this year home loans were taken up at an annualised rate of 364,000."

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