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Realistbear

" Green Shoots" Hype Exposed

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/10072009/323/iea-c...trong-2010.html

Friday July 10, 10:11 AM

IEA cool on green shoots now, sees strong 2010

PARIS (AFP) - Signs of a strong rally in global economic growth and oil demand this year are fading but there could be a dramatic turnaround next year, the IEA said on Friday.

Recent data is showing that American motorists might again hold back on their so-called driving season this year, and emerging economies would be the main force behind renewed strong oil demand when it came, the IEA said.

In the last two months many economists had announced that the global recession was bottoming out and were forecasting a strong recovery in the second half of this year, the International Energy Agency commented.

But "over the past two weeks the mood has suddenly changed, as many leading economic and energy indicators continue to show very weak readings, suggesting that the 'green shoots' have been largely driven by a rebuild of inventories rather than by strong end-user demand," the IEA said.

"We thus remain sceptical regarding the much-trumpeted, strong second half 2009 demand rebound, even if China exceeds expectations," it said in its monthly oil report.

But "in 2010, by contrast, the picture could be dramatically different," the agency said while stressing that forecasts were "perilous" given "the great uncertainty regarding the pace and strength of the global economic recovery."

The agency based its headline outlook in part on the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund, published too recently to be fully reflected in the IEA's figures.

We are moving slightly westward in a few weeks and the removal estimator said the property market around here is dead and that if it was not for overseas business they would be in deep trouble. BTW, there are very few places to rent east of Brighton as the market consists mostly of more informed people* who know renting is the way to go for the next couple of years.

Lets hope the "green shoots" talk can now be laid to rest for a few years so we can get on with the monster recession, hit bottom and look forward to a recovery once the bubble has been fully deflated (another 30% off house prices).

___________________

* non-moronic sorts

Edited by Realistbear

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Lets hope the "green shoots" talk can now be laid to rest for a few years so we can get on with the monster recession, hit bottom and look forward to a recovery once the bubble has been fully deflated (another 30% off house prices).

:P Shall we make that another 40-50% off.... :lol:

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They will get their 'strong end user -demand' when I get my tax cut or when they encourage employers to increase wages. Labour pride themselves on a low wage slave economy and just look where that's got them.

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My part in the "user demand" ?

20% off requested from firm to clean my roof. Granted, no arguments.

30% off car repairs after saying I might go to local garage rather than usual chain. No arguments.

Free tyre upgrade to better quality after saying I would wait till end of summer before replacing.

£50 single fare for flight from Nice-London 2 weeks ago (EZYjet), booking 3 days before departure. Would have cost 2-4 times as much if I'd tried that last year.

etc.

All this within the last month. The demand is there if the price is right. Same with housing ;)

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Swine flu will be blamed for a horrific collapse.

It will be blamed for destroying the recovery.

Swine Flu? That cant be so. Gordon said Britain was 'best placed' to deal with the pandemic

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Guest spp

It really is simple!

World trade is broken.

The west has lived beyond it's means while it's jobs have been shifted to the cheaper labour in East. The money is no longer coming from the East through the banks because they fear they will not get their money back (so they should).

The West is simply now unable to compete with the lower wages of the East.

The mountain of debt the West got itself into is ensuring there is no recovery.

Recovering to what I ask...another phony economy? not a chance.

Living standards are going to fall drastically. Mind you I never really enjoyed seeing chavs living their celeb wanna b lifestyles on borrowed money.

The greater problem we now have is... what the hell are our Governments doing about it?

The scary thing being...they don't know what the hell they are doing and will refuse to accept the above!

:ph34r:

Edited by spp

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It really is simple!

World trade is broken.

The west has lived beyond it's means while it's jobs have been shifted to the cheaper labour in East. The money is no longer coming from the East through the banks because they fear they will not get their money back (so they should).

The West is simply now unable to compete with the lower wages of the East.

The mountain of debt the West got itself into is ensuring there is no recovery.

Recovering to what I ask...another phony economy? not a chance.

Living standards are going to fall drastically. Mind you I never really enjoyed seeing chavs living their celeb wanna b lifestyles on borrowed money.

The greater problem we now have is... what the hell are our Governments doing about it?

The scary thing being...they don't know what the hell they are doing and will refuse to accept the above!

:ph34r:

+1 Good post!

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What does "Green shoots" mean to the man on the street?

More consumerism.

More spending.

More debt.

More extravagance.

More credit.

More waste.

Higher taxes.

Higher house prices.

Higher wages but less to spend.

To be honest I can't see how green shoots can be good for everyone. ;)

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