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Timm

Ft Hpi June

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http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/FTHPI%20News...20June%2009.pdf

• House prices in June fell by 0.3%

The average price of all property transactions completed in England & Wales in June 2009 was 0.3% lower than in May …quot; the lowest monthly fall since April 2008.

• Prices are now 13.1% lower than a year ago

On an annual basis, the average price of all completed transactions in England and Wales in June is 13.1% lower than a year ago …quot; and together with the revised figure for May now show that on an annual basis, the fall in house prices was at its highest in April 2009 at minus 13.7%.

• Housing Transactions are on the increase

Although from a very low base, the traditional increase in housing transactions during the Spring did take place in 2009, despite the reported difficulties in obtaining mortgage finance. May housing transactions were up 43% over February 2009, against an average increase of 36% for the equivalent period over the last 9 years. However the overall level of housing transactions in May 2009, at approximately 40,000, is down 62% from the average 103,937 homes sold in May, for the years 2000…quot;2008.

Edited by Timm

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
Great news - the dam is breaking.

If you're a first time buyer reading this site - the SPRING BOUNCE IS OVER - DO NOT BUY A HOUSE.

WAIT FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND YOU'LL THANK YOUR LUCKY STARS.

But the television makes me need to decorate a shabby terrace in Hull.

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Great news - the dam is breaking. If you're a first time buyer reading this site - the SPRING BOUNCE IS OVER - DO NOT BUY A HOUSE. WAIT FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND YOU'LL THANK YOUR LUCKY STARS.

I agree with you.

But this index does not support our view.

It shows falls bottoming out.

rehash of old news

Apart from the predictive element that is.

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The FT results often seem to be ignored... I suspect because they give a different feeling for things.

The results now mean that average prices are £197,802, having fallen from £231,822 this is a non-inflation adjusted 14.7% fall, which compares to the non-inflation adjusted peak to trough fall of 16.4% in the last crash.

The data is based on all LR transactions but excludes commercial (becasue LR does) which means most auction and repo results are excluded.

It uses the biggest sample size of any of the indeces and is the only one not driven by vested interests (its governed by a cambridge acedemic).

Excluding repos and auction perhaps adds weight to the argument that a large portion of the current falls (reported elsewhere) have come from distressed sales and that these prices have yet to work their way into the main market, its worth also noting that the same was true of the last crash and a large portion of the falls then I think didn't work their way through to the main market either. ( the distressed end fell by 50% odd , the main market fell by 16% the mix of the two resulted in the records showing something like 25% for the market as a whole).

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I’ve added the FTHPI for Jun to the house price inflation roundup below (corrected time line, so YoY is shifted by 6 months, QoQ by 1.5)

2d18oao.jpg

edit: typo

Edited by spline

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I’ve added the FTHPI for Jun to the house price inflation roundup below (corrected time line, so YoY is shifted by 6 months, QoQ by 1.3)

2d18oao.jpg

We appear to be on an upward trend according to those graphs. Perhaps the bulls are right.

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We appear to be on an upward trend according to those graphs. Perhaps the bulls are right.

Yup, let's assume this is 2005 all over again. The graph looks like a sine wave at an incline of about 20 degrees, so that pattern must repeat for ever.

If that is the case, we'll only be down 5%YoY by next year, and just about to go into the next leg down to -45%YoY in 2011.

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We appear to be on an upward trend according to those graphs. Perhaps the bulls are right.

Yes, they are... :rolleyes:

Edited by Kazuya

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I am not conviced these graphs showing month on month and year and year don't confuse the picture, I think looking at the actual price graphs and then using the monthly data as a read accross is better... I find it easier that way anyway.

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The fundamental problem with trying to track trends / turning points in house prices is that the MoM figures, while being timely, are far too noisy. You need to try and see through the noise, but there is a fundamental tradeoff – differencing over a number of months (QoQ 3m, YoY 12m) will always introduce a lag, i.e. there is an inevitable compromise between timeliness and noise, and then you need make the timeline consistent by back-shifting (QoQ 1.5m, YoY 6m). This is what's been done in the graphs above, as well as comparing all the usual suspects on the one chart. :)

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could always try and actually buy a house and see what you can get it for.

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could always try and actually buy a house and see what you can get it for.

Ha ha, Interesting idea, but then it’s only a single data point. I suppose you could argue that it’s very relevant (and accurate) because it’s exactly the sort of house you’re interested in – but therein is the risk, you might actually decide to buy it. :lol:

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Yup, let's assume this is 2005 all over again. The graph looks like a sine wave at an incline of about 20 degrees, so that pattern must repeat for ever.

If that is the case, we'll only be down 5%YoY by next year, and just about to go into the next leg down to -45%YoY in 2011.

So frustrated by my lack of understanding.

But can this crash be predicted by looking at previous crashes or trends?

Its not really 2005 all over again is it?

Didn't your RMBS chart:

Timms Rmbs graph towards the bottom of the thread

Show that the Splines graph only went up because by 2006 50% of lending came from the RMBS market? That isn't going to happen again is it?

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