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Si1

Nationwide's "real" House Price Index Recorded An Increase Of 1.6pc In June

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Nationwide's "Real" House price Index recorded an increase of 1.6pc in June, compared to the "doctored", or seasonally adjusted, figure of + 0.9pc.

says Ray Boulger today

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...-this-year.html

(I'm bearish by the way - thought some people might find this interesting...)

Edited by Si1

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Yeah I'd seen this.... I don't think it makes the case for the bulls though as these figures are so unreliable either way.

true

it does make a case for Boulger being a total *rse tho imho. awfully unbalanced desperate storytelling

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true

it does make a case for Boulger being a total *rse tho imho. awfully unbalanced desperate storytelling

I don't blame Boulger... thats his job after all, he's actually paid to ramp... its the telegraphs job (supposedly ) to put some balance to it.

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I don't blame Boulger... thats his job after all, he's actually paid to ramp... its the telegraphs job (supposedly ) to put some balance to it.

it IS an opinion piece, but I would agree it's up to the DT to provide balance in other articles, which I think they do

and Ray chose his job and accepted the promotion, so I still don't like him (admit I'm prejudiced - never liked 'im!?)

rgds

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As we have said before, no-one remembers Boulger writing in the paper that seasonal adjustment prevented falls from looking far worse.

Exactly. What Boulger said is I'm sure quite true... except that he never applied the same logic when the adjustment went in his favour.

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Hello everyone,

I have asked this questions several time and never got a straight answer. Si1 could you please tell me how these indexes (indices) are calculated?

- Price of property sale completed during the month?

- Price of offer accepted during the month?

- Asking price for new properties put on the market during this month (I have a great feeling that is it not this one)

.....

Thank you in advance for your response.

Maya

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I have asked this questions several time and never got a straight answer. Si1 could you please tell me how these indexes (indices) are calculated?

Not a simple question.

There is a lengthy answer at:

House Price Indices pdf from Bank of International Settlements

You'll probably want to make a cup of coffee before diving in...

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As we have said before, no-one remembers Boulger writing in the paper that seasonal adjustment prevented falls from looking far worse.

He was curiously silent on the matter in December when he could have pointed out that property actually fell by 3.4% instead of the seasonally adjusted 2.5%. The headlines were not screaming "£5,394 WIPED OFF THE VALUE OFF THE AVERAGE HOUSE IN ONE MONTH", which is what the Nationwide figures actually showed.

Anything that the man says or writes in public should carry a VI health warning.

Edited by Hip to be bear

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This is odd as it was reported (here) yesterday that the Halifax figure has been SA'd upwards for June, yet the N'wide figure is SA'd down???

I would have thought that the SA factor should be consistent between the 2 indicies. Which one of them is wrong?

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This is odd as it was reported (here) yesterday that the Halifax figure has been SA'd upwards for June, yet the N'wide figure is SA'd down???

I would have thought that the SA factor should be consistent between the 2 indicies. Which one of them is wrong?

WHich of them is state owned? :ph34r:

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WHich of them is state owned? :ph34r:

I won't go with that particular theory as I believe that April's Halifax figure was actually +ve, but significantly SA'd to give a -ve figure. (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

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I won't go with that particular theory as I believe that April's Halifax figure was actually +ve, but significantly SA'd to give a -ve figure. (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

The SA is dependent upon previous years figures. It's in the methodologies. Good luck!

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When we get to the winter months the seasonally adjusted figure will be higher than the 'real' one.

In December or January, will Ray Boulger be telling us how the 'real' figures are actually much worse that the widely reported ones?

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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