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In Case You Haven't Noticed...

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In Case You Haven't Noticed

Report July 07, 2009

In case you haven't noticed, the markets are back to being bearish. The DOW has sunk over 500 points in less than a month, back to a low we haven't seen since April. When the DOW boomed 500 points from mid-May to mid-June, numerous pundits/journalists/amateur fools continued to talk about how the recession was over, how it's time to be bullish, how we broke some technical resistance point, how Nouriel Roubini needs to be tossed aside, blah blah blah.

In case you haven't noticed, the world's 7th-largest economy is breaching its contracts and using a payment method normally reserved for the third world.

In case you haven't noticed, we're now past the mid-point of 2009. All of the following economic forecasters have been proven severely wrong: Ben Bernanke (numerous), CNBC/Jim Cramer (numerous), CNBC/Dennis Kneale (numerous), Forbes (recession over in May 2009), Robert J. Gordon (Northwestern, projected recession over based on "false signal" jobless claims data), Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust, predicted unemployment to be at only 8%, under 9 at the end of the year), Liz Ann Sonders (Charles Scwab, preidcted end of recession in April), and on and on, not to mention people who either don't or took a really long time to grasp the root of the problem (Obama/Geithner).

In case you haven't noticed, numbers can be easily manipulated. Life is not a linear y=x^2 curve. Percentage-based declines and rates of change are highly misleading and highly susceptible to manipulation and poor reasoning. Your government likes to manipulate them, frequently.

In case you haven't noticed, this isn't your father's recession. Claims about previous post-WW2 recessions do not apply. The problem began in real estate, but the bigger problems are now unsustainable credit/debt loads (in general) and recovery numbers being buoyed artifically by massive stimulus packages and federal intervention by a government whose dependence on debt has bomed. In short, the federal government is doing exactly what Barry O. claims its citizens did to lead to the recession in the first place.

And in case you haven't noticed, a lot of people are telling outright lies right now to make themselves feel better.

The market goes up before the recession ends? Lie - look at '01 and '02. Recession ended in Nov. 2001. Market crashed downward again in 2002. Also, GDP rose from 1933 to 1937...

Once we're out we're out? Wrong. Look at the data from 1969 to 1982; wide-spread, fundamental, systemic problems would be expected to resolve with multiple dips, right?

Unemployment is a lagging indicator? Maybe in previous recessions, but that doesn't guarantee it is in this one. In this recession, credit card defaults are swiftly becomming a major issue (was this the case in 1982? NO). Unemployment is a cause of, not a reaction to, credit defaults. It also is a cause of foreclosure. Comparing today's conservative unemployment numbers to previous recessions is ludicrous because the average consumer in previous recessions had significantly less debt and was at a significantly reduced risk of losing their home. The credit card default rate just hit a new high. This is both a conclusion and a cause of more problems.

Anyone claiming the recession ended in April, May, or June needs to seriously have their head examined. This is a systemic, many-headed hydra that still has developments that are catching our fearless leaders offguard, just as they did from late 07 to late 08. Few have talked openly about the credit card default rate, which causes a spiral of reduced credit-worthiness/bankruptcy/defaults for the consumer and layoffs/liquidity reductions for the bank. Unemployment also affects foreclosures, and with 1/5 of the country underwater a rise in unemployment means a rise in people walking away from their homes, which entails a drop in real estate prices and bank assets.

In case you haven't noticed, ungrounded optimism is a futile weapon against reality.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable

Personally, I think it's all sentiment based.

Whoever the government are using to do PR at the moment, they need sacking.

This lack of recovereh has nothing to do with no-one having any money.

Edited by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

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ungrounded optimism is a futile weapon against reality.

However in Britain it seems a co-ordinated attack of distorted rollox has been fooling most of the people nearly all of the time

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
However in Britain it seems a co-ordinated attack of distorted rollox has been fooling most of the people nearly all of the time

You look so beautiful in the afternoon sunshine.

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However in Britain it seems a co-ordinated attack of distorted rollox has been fooling most of the people nearly all of the time

Quite.

I was back in a small west of Scotland town recently and remarked that it looked worse now than it did in the darkest days of the early 80s when Thatcher closed most of the industries. Very few real shops. All bookies, pubs, charity shops and banks. Plenty of people standing outside pubs smoking in the middle of the day. No jobs.

The person I was with didn't agree. But then she had been living in the place day-in , day-out.

By the end of 3 days, after I kept pointing out all the things that were worse than the 80s, she agreed with me.

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Whoever the government are using to do PR at the moment, they need sacking.

Well they are doing a decent job of fooling the masses so I'd say they are doing their job quite well - but you can't polish poo for long!

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Well they are doing a decent job of fooling the masses so I'd say they are doing their job quite well - but you can't polish poo for long!

Sibley, Poo Polisher In Chief, may have a thing or to to say about that.

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You look so beautiful in the afternoon sunshine.

OH is away & left me scrubbing at the pool.

I shall be at it for days.

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