Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Joey Buttafueco Jr

Halifax June 09 -0.5% Mom, -15% Yoy

Recommended Posts

As I have said on numerous occassions.... this is of passing interest only.... the number itself is meaningless..... all it can possibly tell you is that "possibly" the rate of decline in house prices may have slowed........then again a figure of -1% or +1% in this environment would have told you exactly the same thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah but you see house values are higher than under any tory government and we historically low interest rates, plus despite the GLOBAL economic slowdown unemployment is still under that of the tories.

See I be just like Hamish and Sibley too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good news.

With Property Bee I have been tracking the numbers of properties turning SSTC, as well as asking prices, in Worcester, Lichfield, parts of Birmingham, Bromsgrove, etc. and June saw the numbers of properties turning SSTC fall significantly (compared to March, April and May) back to 1 - 1.5 properties going SSTC per week, per Estate Agency. There seems to be a bit more asking price cutting going on now and Estate Agents also seem much more proactive in trying to make contact by phone and e-mail.

I'm not really sure why but the green roots of recovery may well have begun to die off significantly by the end of May up here in the West Midlands.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As I have said on numerous occassions.... this is of passing interest only.... the number itself is meaningless..... all it can possibly tell you is that "possibly" the rate of decline in house prices may have slowed........then again a figure of -1% or +1% in this environment would have told you exactly the same thing.

party pooper :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It merely suggests to us that the public sentiment generated from media ramping was short lived.

I will admit to being surprised. I had begun to think there would be at least another couple of months in positive territory.

This figure will accelerate downwards soon. The very force that has been keeping it up against all economic fundamentals will drive this figure downwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest KingCharles1st
As I have said on numerous occassions.... this is of passing interest only.... the number itself is meaningless..... all it can possibly tell you is that "possibly" the rate of decline in house prices may have slowed........then again a figure of -1% or +1% in this environment would have told you exactly the same thing.

But it doesn't tell you that the number of home "owners" who are no longer in a positon to sell at ANY PRICE has gone UP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

next weeks lottery numbers would be more useful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Typical ridiculous overreaction..... just becasue the number is down everyone seems to get excited, it really is pathetic on both sides. When will people realise that due to the current market conditions these figures are largely meaningless... possibly the only thing you can have gleaned from them is that the rate of decline might have slowed... but you could have gleaned the same thing if the data had been -1% or +1%. getting excited about the figure from a bear or bull perspective is just plain stupidity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is just the mortgage book of a bankrupt bank, whose recklessness in lending has never been surpassed in UK corporate history, apart from Northern Shithouse and Royal Bung of Scotland. and maybe a few others. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-0.5%........what is the confidence interval on this? I wouldn't be surprised if the upper limit is in positive territory which you could spin as us all being saved. One month's change is fairly meaningless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Typical ridiculous overreaction..... just becasue the number is down everyone seems to get excited, it really is pathetic on both sides. When will people realise that due to the current market conditions these figures are largely meaningless... possibly the only thing you can have gleaned from them is that the rate of decline might have slowed... but you could have gleaned the same thing if the data had been -1% or +1%. getting excited about the figure from a bear or bull perspective is just plain stupidity.

They aren't meaningless though. A positive number would be splashed all over the newspapers in a ramping frenzy. At least we can avoid that nonesense, which undoubtedly suckers some buyers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They aren't meaningless though. A positive number would be splashed all over the newspapers in a ramping frenzy. At least we can avoid that nonesense, which undoubtedly suckers some buyers.

They are largely meaningless ... the fact that bears will leap on negative numbers irrationally and do their own VI ramp, in the same way that bulls will leap on the positive numbers does not make them any more meangingful... it just means both sides are similarly deluded about what the numbers really mean.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-0.5%, trivial compared to the number of houses, jobs and pensions shafted by HBOS, boy Hornby and his ilk.

All the best to Hornby in his new job. I hope it goes REALLY well for him at Boots.

(I mean that most sincerely folks)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They are largely meaningless ... the fact that bears will leap on negative numbers irrationally and do their own VI ramp, in the same way that bulls will leap on the positive numbers does not make them any more meangingful... it just means both sides are similarly deluded about what the numbers really mean.

The vasy majority of people aren't on any side and are affected by the media. You might think that what the papers print is irrelavant, but you are wrong, otherwise they wouldn't bother ramping at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Typical ridiculous overreaction..... just becasue the number is down everyone seems to get excited, it really is pathetic on both sides. When will people realise that due to the current market conditions these figures are largely meaningless... possibly the only thing you can have gleaned from them is that the rate of decline might have slowed... but you could have gleaned the same thing if the data had been -1% or +1%. getting excited about the figure from a bear or bull perspective is just plain stupidity.

Statistically there are indeed grounds for treating these monthly figures with a great deal of caution - particularly because of the very low number of transactions. However, I think these figures are important in respect of the impact they have on sentiment - sentiment of vendors gets dented and eroded by any negative figure, and similarly for the general public. I also think that it plays an important role in denting the morale of Estate Agents. Negative figures such as this one from the Halifax also make it much more difficult for the media and VI's to churn out their spin to try and talk the market up and conversley makes it much more likely that the press and other media will be publishing articles with a bearish slant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest theboltonfury
They are largely meaningless ... the fact that bears will leap on negative numbers irrationally and do their own VI ramp, in the same way that bulls will leap on the positive numbers does not make them any more meangingful... it just means both sides are similarly deluded about what the numbers really mean.

At what point do they become meaningful?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.