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Captain Cavey

City House Prices 'stabilising'

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BBC - City house prices stabilising

House prices in Glasgow and across the west of Scotland are showing signs of stabilising, according to new data from a leading home seller.

Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre (GSPC) said the pace at which prices were falling had begun to tail off.

It also said average selling times for properties had shortened for the first time in two years.

GSPC said the two trends gave hope that the worst of recent price falls "were now behind us".

The latest quarterly market report from GSPC showed average selling prices are now 7.4% lower than they were 12 months ago.

However, this is unchanged from the previous quarter.

'Worst over'

The average price of a home in Glasgow is £146,000, almost £10,000 lower than at this time last year.

Professor Gwilym Pryce, from Glasgow University, conducted the analysis of the GSPC data.

He said: "It's too early to tell whether these are green shoots or a false start, and one should always be cautious about reading too much into a single quarterly figure.

"But these results do suggest that the worst of the housing market downturn is probably over."

Come on everyone, rejoice. The man said it’s all over, so fill yir boots.

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From The Hootsmon

ESPC say they sold more in June than any month since last August - but don't tell us how many!

There are two things worth mentioning here:

1. There seems to be a confusion with many estate agents and the press between rising sales volumes and rising prices (rises in sales are always touted as recovery in the housing market). I think this is far from the truth. With the currently low sales volumes prices will become skewed to more expensive properties who tend to hold up better than smaller, first-time buyer properties, and thus drive up the average house price. When sales volume increases it will probably increase at the lower end, thus driving down the average price. We'll see.

In any case I don't buy the 'increased competition between buyers holding up prices' argument. In Q2 2009 ESPC sold 1,130 properties and they have 4,300 for sale. So they shifted about 25% of their stock - doesn't sound like much competition to me.

2. ESPC seem to be very bullish about rising sales volume. But in the spring bounce sales volume always goes up. If we look over history by how much sales volume has increased in Q2 compared with Q1 of that year, we find:

2005: 61%

2006: 79%

2007: 90%

2008: 30%

2009: 38%

So this is not a very impressive increase in sales at all, compared with previous years.

Now let's see how much sales volume has gone down between Q2 and Q3 of each year:

2005: 8%

2006: 6%

2007: 5%

2008: 36%

2009: ?

If 2008 is anything to go by, this will be a quiet summer.

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Got it now; total sales in Edinburgh of 1130 over Q2, April was 375, May 325, therefore they sold 430 in June.

With somewhere between 215 - 230 member firns (they don't seem able to decide, as it varies between press releases), that's an average of around 2 sales per member firm last month.

They say they sold 634 throughout Central Scotland in June - so that's (634-430) 204 sales in all other areas that month - less than one per member firm....

Edited by TTD

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