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7/7/2009 Cnbc : Brace For "october Crash" - Enzio Von Pfeil

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Global stock markets could crash in October as the much hoped-for economic recovery fails to materialize, Enzio von Pfeil, CEO of EconomicClock.com, told CNBC.

Another good video from yesterday:

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, shares his outlook on the economy with CNBC - Green Shoots are little more than noise.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1174022453&play=1

Rosenberg explains that unemployment is NOT really a lagging indictor in a credit driven collapse. The worst is yet to come.

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they predicted the same thing last year

no-one knows how long they can keep the music going , the cards could flop next week or they could keep it going for another 18 months.i can't see it going any longer than that.

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I've become increasngly immune to sensationalism, which is what CNBC turned this interview into. It was obvious years ago a disaster was on its way. What has surprised me is the mind boggling size of it and how long its playing out.

I tried my best to warn of disaster throughout the boom and all I got back was scorn and disrespect. So much for doing your duty to your fellow man.

Life is short. So regardless of the shit to come I'm going to try my best to enjoy whatever of life's little pleasure are left.

We need a revolution to rid us of the plutocrats who came in under the radar these last ten years, but as that's not going to happen . . . .

"There may be trouble ahead but while there's moonlight and music . . . ."

Edited by Dave Spart

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Having said that this CNBC video is something all bulls - and bears - should be paying attention to.

That's an overview of the Rosenberg video in my original post.

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Nearly half the pension short the FTSE today.

This crap (QE), bounce, and all the manipulation (GS) stinks to high heaven.

The central bank wants me to be a gambler, a gambler I shall be, but not on their terms.

I am prepared to lose the lot, in the face of what is going on a small pot is going to be worthless anyway.

Wish me luck. :lol:

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Nearly half the pension short the FTSE today.

This crap (QE), bounce, and all the manipulation (GS) stinks to high heaven.

The central bank wants me to be a gambler, a gambler I shall be, but not on their terms.

I am prepared to lose the lot, in the face of what is going on a small pot is going to be worthless anyway.

Wish me luck. :lol:

Good luck OnlyMe. ;)

The Dow really seems to be running out of steam. Drifting down again today:

8,223.60 -101.27 (-1.22%)

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I think the guy speaks the truth! One thing I noticed is that there was a 'distraction' all the way through that interview: Obama's expected speech...couldn't help but think that the VIs were at work there.

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I don't think we saw the top yet, the top will be like 1930, Obama will be god, savior of the economy, Gloomberg will be pronouncing the new bull market. Then we have our crash! First we dip, then cross dow 10,000, then we tank :) .

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Global stock markets could crash in November (or maybe December (not sure which year)) as the much hoped-for economic recovery fails to materialize, Cleetus Ramone Kugelsack, CEO of NotAnotherDamnPrediction, told CNBC

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Cheers MOP. Not a short term trade so fully expect wild swings both ways.

surely shorting the ftse is a short term trade? Otherwise when it inevitably rises again you will lose it all

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Global stock markets could crash in November (or maybe December (not sure which year)) as the much hoped-for economic recovery fails to materialize, Cleetus Ramone Kugelsack, CEO of NotAnotherDamnPrediction, told CNBC

So what about Rosenberg then? Is he talking out his a-hole as well?

I mean it's not like he foresaw this mess or anything. Maybe we should just continue to listen to the experts who didn't see it coming instead. :)

Typo

Edited by MOP

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So what about Rosenberg then? Is he talking out his a-hole as well?

I mean it's not like he foresaw this mess or anything. Maybe we should just continue to listen to the experts who didn't see it coming instead. :)

Typo

What exactly did he see?

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What exactly did he see?

He called it in Jan 08.

This is from August 08:

The US economy is in recession. Period. And it has been in a recession since January. This is the mantra of David Rosenberg, the first Wall Street economist to predict America's current economic woes, back in January, and perhaps one of the most bearish in the economic fraternity.

Of course Rosenberg, not one to go with the flow, is more than aware that data out last week showed that the US GDP grew by 1.9pc in the second quarter of the year.

Maybe so, he says, but wait for the downward revisions to such numbers that are likely to come out later in the year. "These numbers are going to be revised six ways to Sunday," he smiles, pointing out that strong growth originally seen in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to GDP, soon dissipated based on the most recent revisions.

No, Rosenberg argues, the NBER uses employment, industrial production, real personal income and real sales in manufacturing, retail and wholesale to make up its mind.

"When I take a look at these four, they all peaked and rolled over at different times from last October to February of this year.

"So when I do my homework, I can see that the recession started, I think, in January."

From his perspective, then, the current market, be it in shares, debt or housing, is now as far away from touching the bottom - as some bears predicted when the Dow rose 331 points on Tuesday - as it ever was.

Rosenberg largely dismisses recent signs of apparent green shoots in the housing market as mere foreclosure sales, saying that such sales are part of an "important chapter towards recovery", and instead seizes on mortgage applications, which have fallen six months in a row.

"The path to financial ruin is littered with calls of a bottom, and I don't think you want to confuse intermediate bottoms with fundamental bottoms; I think that is quite a dangerous game to play," he warns.

"I think what separates my call, say from the consensus, is that I don't necessarily think this is going to be a mild flash in the pan. I think this is going to be a long recession."

For Rosenberg, who recites random statistics from two decades ago as if they happened yesterday, the current downturn should not be dismissed as a simple economic phenomenon.

"This is an epic event; we're talking about the end of a 20-year secular credit expansion that went absolutely parabolic from 2001-2007."

The current downturn, he predicts, will continue until the middle of 2009, pointing out that historically the end of a recession usually comes within a month of the NBER declaring one.

"Whether or not I'm right on the recession call ending, there's going to be an extended period of economic weakness once it does, as post-bubble deleveragings are a multi-year adjustment process."

"American households own more than $4 trillion of consumer durable goods. So something tells me that is going to be a venue for shrinking the household side of the balance sheet.

"We're talking about the silverware, the old antique couch in the basement, unwanted or expensive art," he goes on. "This is the future, the future is frugality."

To back up his vision of a frugal future, he runs through a list of those businesses that already appear to be hurting, based on the second-quarter GDP numbers, those that are becoming somewhat surplus to requirement when times are tough.

"People's expectations have changed and so their behaviour is going to change. Dry cleaning was down, upholstering was down, beauty salons were flat. It's about getting out the old tool kit and doing it yourself."

"I'm not going so far as to say we're going to live in a cave, but life is going to change. There are going to be some very hard decisions made over the household budget as to what to allocate to consumer discretionary spending."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ys-economy.html

Also:

How David Rosenberg foresaw the crash

http://www.financialpost.com/m/story.html?id=1126158

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I don't think we saw the top yet, the top will be like 1930, Obama will be god, savior of the economy, Gloomberg will be pronouncing the new bull market. Then we have our crash! First we dip, then cross dow 10,000, then we tank :) .

Interesting - That's my plan 'B' if the SPX breaks back above 955.

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin. Are you Leonard Cohen? :unsure:

Edited by Red Kharma

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Part of the National Post, 5th largest paper in Canada. WIKI LINK.

I guess I was wrong

Small countries do have 5th place newspaper circulation columnists.

Have you heard of Bloomberg?

Merrill’s Rosenberg Inspired by Farrell in Foreseeing Crash

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a8KK_pGpxqL4

:P

I really need to stop taking Bloomberg seriously.

Edit: are your links about David Rosenberg

"June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lenders are becoming more willing to provide bankruptcy financing after the market’s “near-complete shutdown†from the end of 2008 and the beginning of this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Lear Corp., the Southfield, Michigan auto-seat maker, may have secured a $500 million debtor-in-possession loan from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. ahead of a July 1 bankruptcy filing, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts led by Jeffrey Rosenberg in New York wrote in a June 29 report citing news stories. "

Edited by three pint princess

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I guess I was wrong

Small countries do have 5th place newspaper circulation columnists.

I really need to stop taking Bloomberg seriously.

Edit: are your links about David Rosenberg

"June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lenders are becoming more willing to provide bankruptcy financing after the market’s “near-complete shutdown†from the end of 2008 and the beginning of this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Lear Corp., the Southfield, Michigan auto-seat maker, may have secured a $500 million debtor-in-possession loan from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. ahead of a July 1 bankruptcy filing, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts led by Jeffrey Rosenberg in New York wrote in a June 29 report citing news stories. "

I'm lost here Nicholas.

I noticed your moon thread in off topic there. Have you been drinking tonight?

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