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Michael

Will Massive Government Borrowing Drive Up Irs?

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or will we go Japanese?.......where governement deficits over the years have driven the national debt to nearly 200% of GDP

compared to our 50% but IRs there are still exceptionally low,,,,,,,,,,This Telegraph article relates to the US

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-to-double.html

Spend 40 years distilling the required knowledge and you will come to see; the bond market and therefore interest rates are driven by demographics.

Credit supply v's credit demand can be simplified to old v's young.

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I think the whole developed world is following Japan's footsteps exactly. It has been my prediction all along. Japan was just ahead of us in things like demographics, automation, efficiency etc..

We also have tons and tons of room to grow our national debt before we even get to Japan's level of national debt.. 200% of gdp. And Japan itself seems fine with that level, and is actually expanding its borrowing.. while interest rates are still falling.

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Spend 40 years distilling the required knowledge and you will come to see; the bond market and therefore interest rates are driven by demographics.

Credit supply v's credit demand can be simplified to old v's young.

In Japan case, it was Japanese old+BoJ (supply) vs Western world financiers (demand for carry trade).

Now it's G8-Germany+Brazil govts (demand) vs Germany+Holland+China+Gulf govts (supply). Financiers are borrowing too but at penalty rates, cue CIT. Japan is diversifying or about to diversify its US paper holdings.

Follow KD for early signs of bond market dislocation

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or will we go Japanese?.......where governement deficits over the years have driven the national debt to nearly 200% of GDP

compared to our 50% but IRs there are still exceptionally low,,,,,,,,,,This Telegraph article relates to the US

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-to-double.html

I thought the BoJ rate was low but the cost of personal and company borrowing high? Which is what we are now having.

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A hedge fund Rupert speaks...

Clicky

a deflation in the Uk is likely to end in inflation.

geniuses these financial people.

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Japan has a trade surplus. We have a trade deficit and rely on pesky foreigners for borrowing. I don't think this will play out the same way over here as it did in Japan (although TPTB are hoping for that)

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Spend 40 years distilling the required knowledge and you will come to see; the bond market and therefore interest rates are driven by demographics.

Credit supply v's credit demand can be simplified to old v's young.

What are you talking about, and how does it relate to the quote you used?

The Japanese population is ageing as the birth rate declines, if that's what you are aluding to.

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  • 404 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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