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SarahBell

Saxophone Shaped Recession

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The problem with this analogy is they don't tell you which way round the saxophone is. Like the Nike Swoosh shaped recession or the square-root recession...

Are they saying a long leg down, followed by an immediate reversal and then a plateau at a much lower level?

Edited by AvidFan

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If they mean this:

saxophone.jpg

Then a "V" shaped recovery with a very sharp decline and rebound to a much lower level, i.e. a V shaped recovery in extremis, is actually an L shaped recession with an overshoot on the vertical leg down. The bell (end) would then lead off into a horizontal line, i.e. an economic reset at a much lower level.

There's nothing encouraging about this, no matter how cute, cuddly and absurd the name of the recession gets...

post-2575-1246906156_thumb.jpg

Edited by AvidFan

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More like a ski jumped shaped recession. We have just taken off at the bottom and now have nothing supporting below.

Edit for Eddie the Eagle homage

Eddie_the_Eagle.jpg

post-8114-1246907604_thumb.jpg

Edited by Jekyll

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Separately, a report by the accountants BDO Stoy Hayward says the economy is looking like a "saxophone-shaped cycle of recession and recovery".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8135552.stm

I wonder if they just mean we'll all be listening to Baker Street:

Windin' your way down on Baker Street

Light in your head and dead on your feet

Well another crazy day

You'll drink the night away

And forget about everything

This city desert makes you feel so cold.

It's got so many people but it's got no soul

And it's taking you so long

To find out you were wrong

When you thought it had everything

Sounds like a London BTL'ter or City Boy's lament...

Edited by AvidFan

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Maybe they are saying that it could be a soprano saxophone shaped recession?

soprano_sax.jpg

Damn. Hadn't thought about that. Where do they put the spit valve?

Edited by AvidFan

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If they mean this:

saxophone.jpg

Then a "V" shaped recovery with a very sharp decline and rebound to a much lower level, i.e. a V shaped recovery in extremis, is actually an L shaped recession with an overshoot on the vertical leg down. The bell (end) would then lead off into a horizontal line, i.e. an economic reset at a much lower level.

There's nothing encouraging about this, no matter how cute, cuddly and absurd the name of the recession gets...

When I read this in the Telegraph this morning on the train, the Saxaphone was the other way round, i.e. the graph finished higher than it started. I don't think that was what was meant.

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When I read this in the Telegraph this morning on the train, the Saxaphone was the other way round, i.e. the graph finished higher than it started. I don't think that was what was meant.

Unless you mean it was also upside down:

saxophone2.JPG

post-2575-1246910170_thumb.jpg

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Put a git at one end of any shape of wind instrument & you will get a dribble & a fart at the other.

Now then be impressed. How many ageing models do you know with depth like that? - Be honest.......

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Personally, I'd say we're looking at a rotated St. Germain Auxerrois pipe organ shaped recession.

rotatedorgan.jpg

We are currently around the cherb on the left of the central figure. The central figure represents the next election.

(Edit : Because there's no such thing as a 'pip organ')

post-10258-1246914495_thumb.jpg

Edited by Moo

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saxophone.jpg

Couldn't agree more. We are currently at the very slight upturn just distal to the mouth piece...... and look what is coming up.

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