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geezer466

The Government Plan To Ramp Is Working

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Was in the club the other night discussing the economic situation with 3 chaps who are more or less in the same business as me.

Anyway one of them mentions 'at least it seems to have bottomed out'. I said no it hasn't what you are seeing now is nothing more than a spring bounce I think we are still 18 Months to 2 years away from the bottom, another chap said 'you really think so'? and went on to quote the ever increasing good news on auntie Pravda.

Anyway it turns out the chap who reckoned it had bottomed out has jumped back in and bought a property he will be converting and running as a hotel. We discussed the situation back and forwards but he couldn't see what relevance the underlying indicators such as availability of mortgages and unemployment figures had to do with his vision of the upturn. The other two gents seemed particularly miffed as clearly they also thought the corner has been turned and things were on the up again.

It got particularly interesting when the chap slapped a tenner on the table and said if in 3 Months the economic situation had not improved significantly then the money was mine. I matched it and we put the money behind the bar and will revisit the wager at the beginning of October.

Anyway that bit is not important what is, is the fact that a hell of a lot of people will believe what they are told on the news. Some are indeed acting on that advice and jumping back in although in this case the chap did have a significant deposit and a loan to value ration that keeps the bank happy.

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Was in the club the other night discussing the economic situation with 3 chaps who are more or less in the same business as me.

What club?

You one of them there freemasons or stonecutters or whatever they are?

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What club?

You one of them there freemasons or stonecutters or whatever they are?

Nope couldn't be further from that was a CIU working mans club. The type that are popular in the North of England.

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Anyway it turns out the chap who reckoned it had bottomed out has jumped back in and bought a property he will be converting and running as a hotel.

Has he bought a domestic property to convert? Is he mad? Has he actually looked at how much hotel you get for the price of a pokey house?

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Was in the club the other night discussing the economic situation with 3 chaps who are more or less in the same business as me.

Anyway one of them mentions 'at least it seems to have bottomed out'. I said no it hasn't what you are seeing now is nothing more than a spring bounce I think we are still 18 Months to 2 years away from the bottom, another chap said 'you really think so'? and went on to quote the ever increasing good news on auntie Pravda.

Anyway it turns out the chap who reckoned it had bottomed out has jumped back in and bought a property he will be converting and running as a hotel. We discussed the situation back and forwards but he couldn't see what relevance the underlying indicators such as availability of mortgages and unemployment figures had to do with his vision of the upturn. The other two gents seemed particularly miffed as clearly they also thought the corner has been turned and things were on the up again.

It got particularly interesting when the chap slapped a tenner on the table and said if in 3 Months the economic situation had not improved significantly then the money was mine. I matched it and we put the money behind the bar and will revisit the wager at the beginning of October.

Anyway that bit is not important what is, is the fact that a hell of a lot of people will believe what they are told on the news. Some are indeed acting on that advice and jumping back in although in this case the chap did have a significant deposit and a loan to value ration that keeps the bank happy.

You just told him that he has lost money buy buying in too soon. First stage in dealing with any loss is denial, then follows anger, depression and eventually acceptance. The fact that the BBC are also in denial doesn't change the fact that there is an economic tidal wave of deep sh1t about to hit this nation. Congrats on winning your tenner but work out a bit on a bag before you collect: it may tip him into the anger stage and you will be a legitimate target in his eyes!

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Anyway that bit is not important what is, is the fact that a hell of a lot of people will believe what they are told on the news. Some are indeed acting on that advice and jumping back in although in this case the chap did have a significant deposit and a loan to value ration that keeps the bank happy.

This is the wealth destruction phase and this one will be particularly savage due to the latency of the intense brain washing prior to the crash and with post G20 media ramping and 300 year low in interest rates. I suspect if we were all to survey 10 of our friend 90% would now think it is over.

The vast majority of people played their cards in the boom but the recent phase with the media's help and low interest rates it is flushing out the last of those that are in a position to buy or consume. This is sucking money back into the system so it can be written off. The trouble with this crash is that the deleveraging is so large that even after these generous folk have stepped in to offer their help in the process of deleveraging it will still be far from complete one the last of them steps up.

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Not surprised in the least, house price delusion is a British disease in m experience, hardly anyone thinks you can lose investing in property.

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Tough bet, the idiot Brown will be trying to pull out all the stops between now and October.

It's possible that Sept / Oct could possible be the peak of the "recovery", there are too many variables to accurately predict what will happen, something else could implode between now and then, but I think this "recovery" still has a few months in it yet before the tsunami of crap hits the system.

You may just lose your £10, the happy clappy brigade are out and everyone's going to be happy.

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