Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
AvidFan

The Uk's Very Own Swiss Banker, Hugh Hendry, Pops Up Again

Recommended Posts

The second video in particular is superb.

At last, someone steps outside of the hysteria and talks about the precedent for an expanding public sector debt during a period of contraction in the private sector. Namely, Japan.

Also kicks into touch fears over demand for bonds. There are plenty of takers in such an environment as we are currently witnessing.

And he's right that we're now seeing the hysteria re interest rate expectations, inflation expectations, without any basis on similar precedent. Which in all likelihood will force a curtailing in the fiscal and monetary measures. The much feared double dip

He hit's every single field goal in that interview, except don't expect most of the hpc drones to pay any attention as they babble on about the deficit and debt [while forgetting japan] and talk about rising interest rates and soaraway inflation without looking at the 30's example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He hit's every single field goal in that interview, except don't expect most of the hpc drones to pay any attention as they babble on about the deficit and debt [while forgetting japan] and talk about rising interest rates and soaraway inflation without looking at the 30's example.

He is of course pro-bonds and gilts in particular because he's buying them for his investors. However, he even says he is concerned yields may revert temporarily to their long term mean, i.e. go higher while prices drop, because of the "expectations" you mention. For my money, he's being very objective because he's questioning his own strategy on camera.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He is of course pro-bonds and gilts in particular because he's buying them for his investors. However, he even says he is concerned yields may revert temporarily to their long term mean, i.e. go higher while prices drop, because of the "expectations" you mention. For my money, he's being very objective because he's questioning his own strategy on camera.

Oh good, I won't sell my gold just yet then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"I have no divinity on the future"

That was the most interesting thing he said.

Just another over-paid self-promoting talking head that loves the sound of his own voice.

Can't imagine why.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I used to like Hugh Hendry, but I cannot bring myself to respect the opinion of anyone who compares the saving and production based economy of Japan, to the borrow and consume economies of the UK and US.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to like Hugh Hendry, but I cannot bring myself to respect the opinion of anyone who compares the saving and production based economy of Japan, to the borrow and consume economies of the UK and US.

So at the start of their deflation Japan went from a high savings rate, and then that savings rate declined. The US starts from a low savings rate and that increases steeply within a short period of time......Japanese corporate sector started from high levels of debt and went through a process of deleveraging.

What difference does any of this make ? If the end result for UK and US is mushrooming public sector debt and corporate and household deleveraging as a counter activity. Would you prefer small balanced budgets and surpluses alongside huge private sector debt ? At the end of this, the debt should be where we would prefer it to be, on the public sector balance sheet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So at the start of their deflation Japan went from a high savings rate, and then that savings rate declined. The US starts from a low savings rate and that increases steeply within a short period of time......Japanese corporate sector started from high levels of debt and went through a process of deleveraging.

What difference does any of this make ? If the end result for UK and US is mushrooming public sector debt and corporate and household deleveraging as a counter activity. Would you prefer small balanced budgets and surpluses alongside huge private sector debt ? At the end of this, the debt should be where we would prefer it to be, on the public sector balance sheet.

The countries don't compare at all, its bogus to use Japan as a model for what the UK and US are facing.

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2187rank.html

RESERVES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND GOLD

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2188rank.html

DEBT - EXTERNAL

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2079rank.html

IMPORTS

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2087rank.html

EXPORTS

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...r/2078rank.html

Edited by enrieb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to like Hugh Hendry, but I cannot bring myself to respect the opinion of anyone who compares the saving and production based economy of Japan, to the borrow and consume economies of the UK and US.

I think the UK an US have started moving towards being saving and production based economies already. It's just that TPTB don't know it yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
he's got a few fans out there not least nate at economic edge,but I know aht you mean RK.I never like it when money men are too self congratulatory as I think Hendry has a tendency to be.As with most of them,he'll be right for a while.

I much prefer the blogosphere,where there is a direct record of a bloggers pronouncements.I find it ironic,that the people who saw this coming,Weiss,Shedlock,Calculated Risk,Denninger etc get so little airtime.

He's got money on the table. That makes him very different from the 50% odd bloggers that got it right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have maximum respect for Hugh, I think a lot of what he says makes sense and I am one of many 'deflationistas' here. I also have a lot of time for Mish and Nate. You can also see Hugh's latest interview on CNBC which is on youtube, where he is bearish on property still.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He's got money on the table. That makes him very different from the 50% odd bloggers that got it right.

So have many of the bloggers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So have many of the bloggers.

I'm not sure they do? Shedlock seems to be acting in an advisory role within his firm, and judging from KD's past efforts to find any way to extract money from his website, without admitting it, if he had money on the table in the past he might well have lost it a long time ago. As for Weiss, I've yet to see a PhD streetwise enough to make money on markets.

All guesses and prejudice, but IME writers are not money makers (with some rare exceptions). If they were they wouldn't be writing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not sure they do? Shedlock seems to be acting in an advisory role within his firm, and judging from KD's past efforts to find any way to extract money from his website, without admitting it, if he had money on the table in the past he might well have lost it a long time ago. As for Weiss, I've yet to see a PhD streetwise enough to make money on markets.

Well, ok they could all be lying, but I believe Denninger has claimed to rely on investment income and frequently talks about investment decisions with his own money, believing everyone should manage their own money.

Shedlock gets a percentage of assets under management at Sitka, so certainly has skin in the game. He may or may not have significant amounts of his own money invested. Granted, he is an advisor rather than the boss.

All guesses and prejudice, but IME writers are not money makers (with some rare exceptions). If they were they wouldn't be writing.

No one writes because they like it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, ok they could all be lying, but I believe Denninger has claimed to rely on investment income and frequently talks about investment decisions with his own money, believing everyone should manage their own money.

Shedlock gets a percentage of assets under management at Sitka, so certainly has skin in the game. He may or may not have significant amounts of his own money invested. Granted, he is an advisor rather than the boss.

No one writes because they like it?

Writing takes time. And truth be told, I've always had a nasty prejudice with people writing 'How to be a millionaire' books or similar types.

BTW, I have a lot of respect for Shedlock, even if sometimes I don't have as much confidence as he does about some of the things he writes. And I don't think either him or Weiss are liars. They don't pretend they are skilled investors, do they?

Edited by williamdb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A great three videos, he calls it exactly as I have come round to view it after years of trying to get to grips with the inflation Deflation argument. The inflation argument is compelling but flawed, no one has been able to articulate the benefit of high inflation that is not driven by wages but monetary devaluation, we seem to end up back where we are with worse problems in a few years time. His view on bonds is key.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He doesn't always make the boldest of calls unlike some economists and financiers, but he still voices a strong opinion with conviction - and he puts his money where his mouth is. I put him in the same camp as AEP from the point of view that he's not as sensationalist as some, provides valid warnings and has played things in a conservative way over the last 18 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   295 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.