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We're currently in the "bull trap / return to normal" phase as shown below. How long do we have to wait until the carnage re-begins?

Pretty fecking soon, I hope! My family has outgrown our lovely, modest home and have been very patient to see the market return to sensibility in order to upgrade. Looked like things were happening up to three months ago, but now it looks like the VI and other riff-raff have gotten their second wind based on all this bullsh1t about recoverehhh. Total falls in my area since 2007 are 5% at best!! Grrrrr!

Anyway, I am not going to throw stupid money at stupid people. Will just have to wait another year I assume.

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the 1st legdown

october 2007 (186044) -> february 2009 (147746), 14 months of consecutive falls

my projections:

february 2009 (147746) -> october 2009 (166895), 8 months of consecutive rises

october 2009 (166895) -> september 2011 (93022)

will be interesting to track how accurate this is

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It should be soon, I believe it will be triggered when interest rates come back up. The Government are avoiding this for as long as possible because it will cause a huge crash in the housing market. The next election will be ~Q2 2010, whoever wins will have to raise interest rates significantly and won't be afraid to do so because they've got 5 years for it to turn around.

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It should be soon, I believe it will be triggered when interest rates come back up. The Government are avoiding this for as long as possible because it will cause a huge crash in the housing market. The next election will be ~Q2 2010, whoever wins will have to raise interest rates significantly and won't be afraid to do so because they've got 5 years for it to turn around.

I agree

It does show how bloody stupid politicians really are doesnt it?

Who in their right mind would fight for the chance to be in charge of the utter chaos at the moment?

If I was David Cameron I'd be doing my best NOT to be in charge.

Edited by whippet

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I agree

It does show how bloody stupid politicians really are doesnt it?

Who in their right mind would fight for the chance to be in charge of the utter chaos at the moment?

If I was David Cameron I'd be doing my best NOT to be in charge.

+ 1

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I had been looking for interest rate rises to trigger another round of falls this year, but now I'm not so sure. As long as the economy remains weak, and there's spare capacity as a result of the recession to fend off inflation, rates can stay low. That could mean interest rates rise later rather than sooner.

On the other hand, jobs keep getting cut in the private sector, and there are massive public sector cuts still to come. That will affect affordability and repossession rates, but just as importantly will affect sentiment across the board.

I think we'll see prices start to fall again this year, but phase 2 of the crash won't really get going until after the next general election.

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the 1st legdown

october 2007 (186044) -> february 2009 (147746), 14 months of consecutive falls

my projections:

february 2009 (147746) -> october 2009 (166895), 8 months of consecutive rises

october 2009 (166895) -> september 2011 (93022)

will be interesting to track how accurate this is

December 2009 Nationwide report was down, making November 2009 the new peak,

it looks like the next leg down has started.

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We're currently in the "bull trap / return to normal" phase as shown below. How long do we have to wait until the carnage re-begins?

How the Dickens would you know that? You post makes it sound like it's an accomplished fact. I think we have had the bottom in terms of nominal falls and voted that way. But evidence for this - Ihave none - like you I am just guessing!

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How the Dickens would you know that? You post makes it sound like it's an accomplished fact. I think we have had the bottom in terms of nominal falls and voted that way. But evidence for this - Ihave none - like you I am just guessing!

According to my projections you will be proven wrong in about 6 months time. At which time

I'll dig this thread out again and highlight how you were wrong.

The only way I can see you being right, is if late 1970s style horrendous double-digit inflation suddenly

arrives, and everybody starts getting bumper busting wage increases. Plus the banks suddenly start

lending to everybody again, and unemployment starts going down again. Can't really see it happening.

Edited by Dr Doom

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According to my projections you will be proven wrong in about 6 months time. At which time

I'll dig this thread out again and highlight how you were wrong.

The only way I can see you being right, is if late 1970s style horrendous double-digit inflation suddenly

arrives, and everybody starts getting bumper busting wage increases. Plus the banks suddenly start

lending to everybody again, and unemployment starts going down again. Can't really see it happening.

OK - if I am right will you still dig it out?! I can't see wheelbarrows full of fivers either, but I can see gentle inflation which will effect hpi as well other asset classes. There has been a savage correction from Autumn 07 to Spring 09 - over. Now the cycle starts again - see you in 2015 for the downside!

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OK - if I am right will you still dig it out?! I can't see wheelbarrows full of fivers either, but I can see gentle inflation which will effect hpi as well other asset classes. There has been a savage correction from Autumn 07 to Spring 09 - over. Now the cycle starts again - see you in 2015 for the downside!

This is the "return to normal" phase of the market cycle. 2015 ..... what sort of cycle is that, I thought

it's meant to be an 18 year cycle ?

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Asset prices need to remain high to protect bank balance sheets. Inflation needs to be managed to make people relatively poorer.

The low was in when Feb 2008?

No previous housing crash in the U.K has a well defined Bull Trap. Why should this one?

Edited by GrillsBears

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Asset prices need to remain high to protect bank balance sheets. Inflation needs to be managed to make people relatively poorer.

The low was in when Feb 2008?

No previous housing crash in the U.K has a well defined Bull Trap. Why should this one?

This one is more sophisticated. The bull trap ensures maximum equity transfer.

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December 2009 Nationwide report was down, making November 2009 the new peak,

it looks like the next leg down has started.

Hang on, wasn't it only the non seasonally adjusted figure that was down? I think it would be a huge assumption to say that a drop at the quietest time of year indicates a change in direction.

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Hang on, wasn't it only the non seasonally adjusted figure that was down? I think it would be a huge assumption to say that a drop at the quietest time of year indicates a change in direction.

Maybe so, but we will soon know if it really is when the January figures come out .

I think we'll see another decline. That will fit nicely with the model.

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This is traditionally one of the least active times of year so too early to assume any leg downs as yet, anyway. Shortage of supply thanks to Granny Jones giving up her savings interest to pay for Mr Spivton's mortgage and everyone's taxes and future given up for the same reason, are having an effect for sure, in curtailing supply (for now). Shortage of supply always means prices hold up better than they otherwise would, although where the current buyers are getting the money from mystifies me.

No previous housing crash in the U.K has a well defined Bull Trap. Why should this one?

I agree with your analysis above although perhaps better brains than mine insist there has been. However, there is always a first time for every observation and historic precedent. We never know when we're upon it, might be now or might not be.

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I've seen a couple of reductions on the Bee in my area. However, there are plenty more "under offers" appearing, and possibly a pick-up in LR data additions.

One reduction was at the top end of the market and I don't know much about that particular property.

Another, closer to home, was reduced from 535 to 500 asking - where the 2007 peak in LR is only around 485, and some have gone in 2009 for 450ish. Clearly it wasn't just me who laughed when I saw that asking price. What would I pay? 300 tops!

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the 1st legdown

october 2007 (186044) -> february 2009 (147746), 14 months of consecutive falls

my projections:

february 2009 (147746) -> october 2009 (166895), 8 months of consecutive rises

october 2009 (166895) -> september 2011 (93022)

will be interesting to track how accurate this is

I have read some quite negative predictions, but a fall of 44% in two years seems totally mental. Are you predicting WW3? Just for a laugh, what level of IRs and inflation do you predict for September 2011?

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