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geoffk

Guess Where Hamish Is...

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HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MoneySaving Convert

Join Date: Jan 2009

Post Count: 30

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Quote:

Originally Posted by IveSeenTheLight View Post

Some people on here quote 70,000 sales as the figure required to sustain growth.

The figure for May was circa 43,414, so yes lower than the 70,000 figure, but still 43,414 sales.

Simple mathematics shows that this is roughly 500,000 sales in a year.

The CML have recently lowered their prediction of reposessiong to 65,000, so I don't foresee how this "relatively" low figure will cause such a large impact on house prices.

Personally, I don't agree with the 70,000 sales figures requirement. The reason being that it all depends on supply and demand (desire and access to funds).

Supply and demand set the basis of whether there is competition for the same property.

More supply means less competition, less supply means more competition.

So we are seeing less sales, but we also know there is less properties marketed.

There is a very strong chance that what we will see if a couple of years stagnation i.e. up a few months, then down a few months, but we could well be at the bottom of overall average house price declines.

Well said. UK house prices dot net have done some prediction work on levels of approvals required for price neutrality, and they estimate it as around 48000. As prices fall, so does the level of purchases to stabilise the market.

Actual sales last month was 60,000. 40K approvals plus some cash buyers.

CML have indeed lowered their prediction on reposessions, and 65,000 is basically a one month supply. Nowhere near enough to cause a further big fall.

Mortgage lending for new purchase has risen every month for 5 months now, as has approvals, and the size of loan is increasing too. The avaerage

Prices have risen from a low of 147K in Feb, to a current of 156K today. There will be some further small falls over next winter, but we are now in the "bump along the bottom" phase of the market.

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HAMISH_MCTAVISH

MoneySaving Convert

He really is fond of pimping the same old rhetoric. Not once has he acknowledged that this whole crazy spell of year on year housing inflation was wholly based on cheap credit and lax regulation.

How long until he bullies, badgers, and marginalizes a big enough crew of the MSE folk to get himself banned there too?

Not long I reckon.

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aagh, i lose the will to live after a couple of minutes reading that forum... 'desperate to sell.. been on market for more than 4 years' etc...

and then those in the middle of a chain, and those pesky buyers strike again! you know, the lowly ones with the temerity to want to buy their house and not make the bad decision of a lifetime.. 'not us, oh no.... we're a different kind of buyer, and viewed differently by those 'above' in the chain'...

here's some drive-by consultancy for FREE!

DROP THE FCKIN PRICE ALREADY

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And he raises an interesting point, I didn't know there was an expectation that 13% of house sales would be repossessions.

If this is the case, then it's going to help drive prices down a bit!

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