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Housepricecrash Herd Mentality

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Yeah, they would say that...

Yeah, YEAH, YEAH!!!

Confirmation bias doesn't exist - it's just something dreamed up by the trolls to undermine the obviously and completely correct views of the bears on this website.

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This has been known for years - its called "cognitive dissonance".

If you wish to be a truly successful investor you need to recognise it in yourself and fight it. Otherwise you need to be a truly lucky investor :D

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This has been known for years - its called "cognitive dissonance".

If you wish to be a truly successful investor you need to recognise it in yourself and fight it. Otherwise you need to be a truly lucky investor :D

But, it can't be true. I refuse to believe it.

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This is going a bit off topic but I have been thinking about herd behaviour recently.

We have heard that sales of Michael Jackson records are soaring since his death. I wonder if nyone on here has joined in the buying spree or knows anyone who has? It would be very interesting if people also care to explain their actions.

FYI I think alot of Jackson's work was great and that he was an exceptional entertainer and huge cultural icon but I have not just gone and bought any of his music, have no intention of doing so in the immediate future and can't understand the behaviour of those who have.

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eh...isn`t it just the case that this site called it correctly, i.e the previous madness will lead to the bust we are seeing now?

Cognitive dissonance refers to situations where there can be possible other outcomes ? In the present economic situation there is only one outcome, and low house prices are one of the givens? My problem with the bulls, especially Hamish, was that cheering on your boxer when he is being given first aid on the canvas just marks you out as an idiot, and since I joined this site I have found idiots to be in much shorter supply than they are in the MSM for example.So why try to pretend that there is an alternative viewpoint? The only question for house prices now is How low can they go, and How badly will it affect society? An idiot like Hamish trying to pretend it isn`t so just doesn`t do it for me I`m afraid.

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This is going a bit off topic but I have been thinking about herd behaviour recently.

We have heard that sales of Michael Jackson records are soaring since his death. I wonder if nyone on here has joined in the buying spree or knows anyone who has? It would be very interesting if people also care to explain their actions.

FYI I think alot of Jackson's work was great and that he was an exceptional entertainer and huge cultural icon but I have not just gone and bought any of his music, have no intention of doing so in the immediate future and can't understand the behaviour of those who have.

Often when you walk in the opposite direction to the herd, you step outside of the box and can then view things from a different angle. ;)

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FYI I think alot of Jackson's work was great and that he was an exceptional entertainer and huge cultural icon

And a kiddy-fiddler.

No-one would forgive me for that, simply because I am good at doing my job.

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So who is the 'herd'?

The bulls or the bears or the banksters who are putting up the money for the buyers or the governments who are putting up the money for the banksters or the bond markets who are putting up the money for the governments or the investors who are putting up the money for the bond markets or the economies who are creating the money for the investors or the buyers and sellers who are creating the economies or the............

.....thirst quenching Coke!

I think I'll get a T-shirt made up.

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And a kiddy-fiddler.

No-one would forgive me for that, simply because I am good at doing my job.

No one asked you to Harry.

I don't know if the allegation you just made is true or not and neither do you.

The part of my post you have selectively quoted is nothing to do with the main thrust of the post anyway, although given that alot of people share your suspicions I s'pose it makes the spike in sales all the more interesting.

Anyway. Are there any purchasers out there.

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No one asked you to Harry.

I don't know if the allegation you just made is true or not and neither do you.

I am sure you would agree that most adult males do not normally share their beds with another man's son- something which is not disputed?

Michael Jackson was a paedophile and a smack addict- or "he had a problem with prescription drugs" if you prefer.

Either way, the kids are better off without him. Good riddance.

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I am sure you would agree that most adult males do not normally share their beds with another man's son- something which is not disputed?

Michael Jackson was a paedophile and a smack addict- or "he had a problem with prescription drugs" if you prefer.

Either way, the kids are better off without him. Good riddance.

Wow, this thread got derailed quickly!

Anyway, to contribute, I just read an article in the Spectator about this whole herd mentality thing. Apparently, it can turn people into terrorists and stuff, once a group gets locked into it's own little worldview.

Could the posters on HPC.com be the next Al-queda???

If this theory is true, we may not even recognise our own insanity! Re-categorising all the most prominent bulls on this site as trolls is a pretty ominous portent....

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I am sure you would agree that most adult males do not normally share their beds with another man's son- something which is not disputed?

Michael Jackson was a paedophile and a smack addict- or "he had a problem with prescription drugs" if you prefer.

Either way, the kids are better off without him. Good riddance.

buy that man a beer.... :lol:

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Wow, this thread got derailed quickly!

Anyway, to contribute, I just read an article in the Spectator about this whole herd mentality thing. Apparently, it can turn people into terrorists and stuff, once a group gets locked into it's own little worldview.

Could the posters on HPC.com be the next Al-queda???

If this theory is true, we may not even recognise our own insanity! Re-categorising all the most prominent bulls on this site as trolls is a pretty ominous portent....

We at HPC have seen too many Adam Curtis documentaries for that.

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I am sure you would agree that most adult males do not normally share their beds with another man's son- something which is not disputed?

Michael Jackson was a paedophile and a smack addict- or "he had a problem with prescription drugs" if you prefer.

Either way, the kids are better off without him. Good riddance.

I don't disagree that his behaviour was well outside the norm and certainly appeared to be unsavoury. I would most definitely not have let him look after my children. It would seem that he was drug dependent.

I am not trying to change anyones opinion of Jackson. I don't care what people think about him. I don't care about him at all. I am simply trying to understand the behaviour of vast swathes of the population. Behaviour which I find strange. I find your behaviour this evening very strange too.

So I have answered your question. Would be decent of you to return the favour.

Would you agree that you have completely missed the point of my post?

Would you also agree that you have quoted out of context?

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eh...isn`t it just the case that this site called it correctly, i.e the previous madness will lead to the bust we are seeing now?

Cognitive dissonance refers to situations where there can be possible other outcomes ? In the present economic situation there is only one outcome, and low house prices are one of the givens? My problem with the bulls, especially Hamish, was that cheering on your boxer when he is being given first aid on the canvas just marks you out as an idiot, and since I joined this site I have found idiots to be in much shorter supply than they are in the MSM for example.So why try to pretend that there is an alternative viewpoint? The only question for house prices now is How low can they go, and How badly will it affect society? An idiot like Hamish trying to pretend it isn`t so just doesn`t do it for me I`m afraid.

You'd be right if you were confident that say if it becomes obvious that we are in for a long and slow crash, or maybe a primarilly inflation adjusted slide... ie flat prices in £ terms that people would A) Be able to discuss any evidence in a non-partisan way. B) Accept the answer once it became clear.

Personally I suspect that if that were to happen then the bulls (who seem to wind many up perfectly) would post... "it's only 25% , its only 25%... told you so, told you so etc etc " and so inflamed would many become that A) would not be possible and B) would only really dawn far too late for a group who procalim to be at the forefront of understanding and insight on house prices.... ie The daily mail and daily express would have called it first and many of the tabloids would have run headlines saying that HPC are the only ones not to have recognised the change and most sit like a forgotten japanese soldier, continuing to fight a war that finished a good while ago.

My feeling sadly is that there are loads here who just "join in" and would get carried away with bull bashing, and others who appear to have so much time and energy invested in the crash that if 25% were to be the number they would resist it against all evidence to the contrary.

I suspect the response to this will be... well it doesn't matter as the number won't be 25% ... to some degree I applaud the certainty, however I also feel such a response might partially confirm the issue.

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eh...isn`t it just the case that this site called it correctly, i.e the previous madness will lead to the bust we are seeing now?

Cognitive dissonance refers to situations where there can be possible other outcomes ? In the present economic situation there is only one outcome, and low house prices are one of the givens? My problem with the bulls, especially Hamish, was that cheering on your boxer when he is being given first aid on the canvas just marks you out as an idiot, and since I joined this site I have found idiots to be in much shorter supply than they are in the MSM for example.So why try to pretend that there is an alternative viewpoint? The only question for house prices now is How low can they go, and How badly will it affect society? An idiot like Hamish trying to pretend it isn`t so just doesn`t do it for me I`m afraid.

Judging by the speed with which this was moved off the main forum, the mods would appear to be less sure.

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Cognitive dissonance refers to situations where there can be possible other outcomes ?

No, Festinger's book was about an end-of-the-world type group who got themselves ready to be beamed up by spaceships that never came for them. Unless you know something I don't about martians and the destruction of the Earth, there was only one outcome.

What do you do now? You have a choice, admit you were wrong or something else.

They chose something else, in this case an elaborate addition to their eschatology that meant they'd saved the world from destruction IIRC which made them doubly blessed.

Festinger speculated that this was because the pain of accepting they'd been deluded was greater than the pain of deluding themselves further (ie. its a form of the sunk costs problem). The dissonance is between reality and expectation (their understanding or model of the world) which Festinger believed caused distress. By retrospectively altering their model of the world, they reduced the dissonance between reality and their model. This differs from learning, where we adjust our models toward reality because they valued their beliefs more than reality. Reminds me a bit of what the financiers have been doing in recent years.

The HPC equivalent would probably be some tale that the more prices fall the higher they will rise in future, that sort of thing.

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I do not normally answer posts like this one. But check the facts.

This thread was moved to off topic after being on the main board for 1 hour 30 mins. It had definitely gone off topic by changing into a discussion on Michael Jackson for several posts. It was moved to Off topic at 10.37 for this reason.

Check the facts before you make allegations against the moderators.

Please do not try to undermine the moderators and cause trouble on this board.

I hardly started it. The unfounded smear from your colleague regarding my use of work, home, g/f, parent's and holiday IP addresses (and underpants) and the Troll status given with no warning, notification or explanation tend to show mod decisions in a less than favourable light.

I've not seen posts moved so quickly before.

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