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How Technology's Accelerating Power Will Transform Us

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Guest sillybear2

Kurzweil knocks back more vitamin pills on a daily basis than MJ (god rest his soul) did with painkillers. He thinks it's gonna make him immortal, so he can survive long enough to live on the moon :-

http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazin...-04/ff_kurzweil

I always knew his style of boomers were selfish but I never contemplated they would actually attempt to bankrupt us by trying to create the fountain of youth, that really takes the biscuit. These people are so self-centered they cannot accept their own mortality.

There will be a singularity alright, it will be the point at which we cannot increase oil production, beyond that we face a slow rundown and a return to near rural subsistence living which basically marked the entire history of mankind until very recently :-

World_Population_and_Oil.JPG

post-13375-1246564617_thumb.jpg

Edited by sillybear2

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
"Computers will have disappeared by 2010" :lol:

He actually said that computers as we have known then would start to disappear; which they have.

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
Kurzweil knocks back more vitamin pills on a daily basis than MJ (god rest his soul) did with painkillers. He thinks it's gonna make him immortal, so he can survive long enough to live on the moon :-

http://www.wired.com/medtech/drugs/magazin...-04/ff_kurzweil

I always knew his style of boomers were selfish but I never contemplated they would actually attempt to bankrupt us by trying to create the fountain of youth, that really takes the biscuit. These people are so self-centered they cannot accept their own mortality.

There will be a singularity alright, it will be the point at which we cannot increase oil production, beyond that we face a slow rundown and a return to near rural subsistence living which basically marked the entire history of mankind until very recently :-

World_Population_and_Oil.JPG

If solar technology does nothing better than provide the modest iterative improvements it has over the years it will be a viable replacement for fossil fuels within 20 years. Black silicon solar cells already put us one the other side of that curve.

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Guest sillybear2
I'm with Ray on this one. (It won't stop a depression and a very rough decade or so as oil becomes less easy to come by.)

As for timing, that's a mugs game, as we know all too well on here! :lol:

He's basically a geek version of the Seventh-day Adventists, does he expect to wake up one morning to the sound of serene harpists with a blinding white light in the distance to be told by a beardy bloke that the singularity is finally here and now it's time to upload his brain to a computer and not to worry about California's creaking power grid :rolleyes:

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Guest sillybear2
If solar technology does nothing better than provide the modest iterative improvements it has over the years it will be a viable replacement for fossil fuels within 20 years. Black silicon solar cells already put us one the other side of that curve.

Cool, lets just hope this solar technology doesn't require energy intensive amorphous silicon or precious metals that are ultra-rare and require huge amounts of fossil fuels to mine and refine, or are only low efficiency, or are made from polymers or carbon nanotubes that are byproducts of oil production.

Edited by sillybear2

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Guest sillybear2
IBM already has a part simulation of a section of a human brain running in Switzerland.

What has it been tasked to ponder, Descartes or maybe where the locals are hiding all their looted gold?

Edited by sillybear2

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He actually said that computers as we have known then would start to disappear; which they have.

I don't think so. :lol: The guy's a raving transhumanist and many of his "predictions" are fanciful. I think that the cocktail of supplements, nootropics and god knows what else must have clouded his judgement. He intersperses strategically placed scientific fact with wild speculation in the same way as a politician trying to sell an idea. Oh, and anyone who credits "bono" - the Irish ego maniacal pop-freak-world-saviour-messiah with any insight must need their head seeing to.

We can't even feed the majority of the worlds population, let alone reverse engineer the human brain.

Edited by Von Moses

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We can't even feed the majority of the worlds population,

Thats because there is no benefit in that, if we wanted to do it we could.

let alone reverse engineer the human brain.

There could be a lot of benefits in that.

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
IBM already has a part simulation of a section of a human brain running in Switzerland. A lot of other things are going on in military circles I hear:

http://bluebrain.epfl.ch/

That's pretty primitive compared to the work being done now. Many parts of the human brain have been reverse engineered. There are even people walking around with experimental implants that replace functionality lost due to damage in specific brain regions.

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
Cool, lets just hope this solar technology doesn't require energy intensive amorphous silicon or precious metals that are ultra-rare and require huge amounts of fossil fuels to mine and refine, or are only low efficiency, or are made from polymers or carbon nanotubes that are byproducts of oil production.

What if they do? Peak oil does not mean no more oil, it just means it costs a lot more. We will use oil to move us out of the fossil fuel age.

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
I don't think so. :lol: The guy's a raving transhumanist and many of his "predictions" are fanciful. I think that the cocktail of supplements, nootropics and god knows what else must have clouded his judgement. He intersperses strategically placed scientific fact with wild speculation in the same way as a politician trying to sell an idea. Oh, and anyone who credits "bono" - the Irish ego maniacal pop-freak-world-saviour-messiah with any insight must need their head seeing to.

We can't even feed the majority of the worlds population, let alone reverse engineer the human brain.

People dying of starvation is not a production issue.

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Guest sillybear2
What if they do? Peak oil does not mean no more oil, it just means it costs a lot more. We will use oil to move us out of the fossil fuel age.

Which basically means it's a child of the oil age, not a self-supporting entity, I'm not knocking alternatives but we have to be honest. We will never move beyond the oil age as such, there is nothing on earth quite like it, thousands of years of stored solar energy with a huge energy density stored in a portable form just waiting to be tapped. I've seen the future, it's just the 16th century all over again... but maybe with a few more nuclear reactors ;)

Edited by sillybear2

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Why is solar power not more developed?

Because people make too much money out of oil.

Why is there no cure for cancer?

Because people make too much money out of treatments.

etc

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Guest sillybear2
Why is solar power not more developed?

Because of the laws of thermodynamics?

Oil is the problem, it's not a conspiracy as such, it's just very cheap for the energy a single barrel contains, even at >$100.

Edited by sillybear2

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If solar technology does nothing better than provide the modest iterative improvements it has over the years it will be a viable replacement for fossil fuels within 20 years. Black silicon solar cells already put us one the other side of that curve.

20 years? Thin-film solar is already close to being price competitive with new-build coal....

'Thin Film Solar Power - Cheaper than Coal?' [January 2008]:

http://www.thinfilmsblog.com/2008/01/thin-...-than-coal.html

Thin Film solar superstar, Nanosolar, has shipped their first panels. Their 430 MW plant in California will be the largest in the world and allow them to sell at less than $1/Watt per panel, or about $2/Watt in a complete system. According to the Energy Department, building a new coal plant costs about $2.1 a watt, not including the costs of fuel and emissions. Is this a watershed for solar energy? It may be difficult for vacuum deposited thin film solar manufacturers to compete with Nanosolar, which uses nanoparticle ink jet printing in atmosphere on metal foil, roll to roll. Their plant reportedly is costing about 15 million dollars to build, compared to about 350 million for a vacuum deposited solar cell plant. Nanosolar is tight lipped about their efficiency, but Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) cells have reached 19.5% in the laboratory.

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Guest sillybear2
solarcartoon.jpg

They own all the mines that contain the precious metals used to dope the panels.

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Im watching the other speakers speak. There are some very intelligent interesting people on there. So far the first one has been the least interesting one!

I wish I knew more people like this, well any actually.

Edited by Johnny Storm

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
Because of the laws of thermodynamics?

Oil is the problem, it's not a conspiracy as such, it's just very cheap for the energy a single barrel contains, even at >$100.

What about thermodynamics? Capturing a tiny fraction of a percent of the solar energy that hits the Earth everyday would meet not only today's worldwide energy needs, but those projected for the next 50 years. The only reason solar research has not progressed faster is lack of funding which is a result of the complacency of politicians. Once they truly understand peak oil we will see a major shift towards solar and other energy sources.

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Guest BoomBoomCrash
Or fossil fuels expensive.

How expensive though? Many people said oil at $150 would be a trigger, but it has been that high and collapsed back down without any big push towards alternative energy sources.

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