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A.steve

U.s. Economy Sheds 467,000 Jobs In June, Jobless Rate At 9.5 Percent; Stocks Extend Losses

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In "normal" recessions, unemployment peaks and they rapidly rebounds a few months later with positive figures (not less-bad negative figures).

The US "peak" was 745K earlier in the year, but this just aint fitting the patterns of the past.

Conclusion : Not a "normal" recession.

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Guest KingCharles1st

It's hard to do anything other than shake one's head.

So with absolutely no consumer demand, hoe exactly are they going to get out of that little hole?

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It's hard to do anything other than shake one's head.

So with absolutely no consumer demand, hoe exactly are they going to get out of that little hole?

Use Iraqi oil contracts :lol:

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What's the pattern?

Debt bubble collapses and the truth is found out about the whole leveraged ponzi scheme that has infested most of the world, but the US/UK in the most extreme forms.

World trade falls off a cliff, we go into a period of inventory rundown.

Rates slashed, fake bounce, small amount f inventory restocking (together with the global trade, and manufacturing that goes with it).

Then back to square one, with enormous piles of government debt piled up on top of the insane levels of personal/household debt, Bankers pissing themselves - they've walked away with billions and no punishment, the rest of the population are now either still in insane amounts of debt and chucking their low rate mortgage excess funds into slowly paying it down and worse the prudent have been ****-******ed and are turning away from consumption themselves knowing damn well that the taxes and general climate are going to be economically crucifying for years. The shellshocked money that divested itself out of low rate accounts (those not prepared to hold on) has already been spent.

Could any situation be much worse than this? It is now everybody's problem, not just the reckless, you can forget any sort of meaningful recovery.

Edited by OnlyMe

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What's the pattern?

Debt bubble collapses and the truth is found out about the whole leveraged ponzi scheme that has infested most of the world, but the US/UK in the most extreme forms.

World trade falls off a cliff, we go into a period of inventory rundown.

Rates slashed, fake bounce, small amount f inventory restocking (together with the global trade, and manufacturing that goes with it).

Then back to square one, with enormous piles of government debt piled up on top of the insane levels of personal/household debt, Bankers pissing themselves - they've walked away with billions and no punishment, the rest of the population are now either still in insane amounts of debt and chucking their low rate mortgage excess funds into slowly paying it down and worse the prudent have been ****-******ed and are turning away from consumption themselves knowing damn well that the taxes and general climate are going to be economically crucifying for years. The shellshocked money that divested itself out of low rate accounts (those not prepared to hold on) has already been spent.

Could any situation be much worse than this? It is now everybody's problem, not just the reckless, you can forget any sort of meaningful recovery.

Spot on mate - you have quite succintly made the case for why the "green shoots" of recovery stories were pure fantasy to begin with. As an unnamed banker recently said ; "The deleveraging will not be denied". All the governments' QE attempts are merely staving off the inevitable crunch and probably making it worse when it does eventually arrive.

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What's the pattern?

Debt bubble collapses and the truth is found out about the whole leveraged ponzi scheme that has infested most of the world, but the US/UK in the most extreme forms.

World trade falls off a cliff, we go into a period of inventory rundown.

Rates slashed, fake bounce, small amount f inventory restocking (together with the global trade, and manufacturing that goes with it).

Then back to square one, with enormous piles of government debt piled up on top of the insane levels of personal/household debt, Bankers pissing themselves - they've walked away with billions and no punishment, the rest of the population are now either still in insane amounts of debt and chucking their low rate mortgage excess funds into slowly paying it down and worse the prudent have been ****-******ed and are turning away from consumption themselves knowing damn well that the taxes and general climate are going to be economically crucifying for years. The shellshocked money that divested itself out of low rate accounts (those not prepared to hold on) has already been spent.

Could any situation be much worse than this? It is now everybody's problem, not just the reckless, you can forget any sort of meaningful recovery.

It's far worse than that. Those bankers who've got billions are still in serious trouble, especially when the defaults start to mount.

What then.

The state has no more money to bailout this scheme, then the politicians will have to go after the bankers because if they don't the public will go after them and the bankers.

We are going to have severe fiscal drag, combined with demand and debt destruction. What fun awaits us all.

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In "normal" recessions, unemployment peaks and they rapidly rebounds a few months later with positive figures (not less-bad negative figures).

The US "peak" was 745K earlier in the year, but this just aint fitting the patterns of the past.

Conclusion : Not a "normal" recession.

yep, it's a depression.

I keep saying it & the majority don't listen or understand what's coming.

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yep, it's a depression.

I keep saying it & the majority don't listen or understand what's coming.

I have had similar experiences. I suspect that the English language is partly to blame here... As soon as anyone mentions "depression" today, the financially illiterate (especially those of this disposition who are senior in years) assume that a statement is being made about a personal feeling or expectation about personal consequences. Nothing could be further from the truth... a depression, I'm aware, is the only way to correct the imbalances that adversely affect such a large proportion of the economically productive and points to a bright future. All that is relevant is that the future is not necessarily bright for those who've had the best time in recent years.

I try explaining that a recession arises when an economy over-produces (the wrong sort of) goods - whereas a depression arises when an economy over-invests in (the wrong sort of) capital assets - usually using considerable leverage. It seems no explanation, subsequent to mentioning the "d-word", gets through. This is a shame since a global economic depression so accurately describes what is going on.

I guess, as a contrarian, it is positive that the majority seem utterly ignorant - unless, I suppose, you care what happens to (some) members of this underclass - or, if you assume their future penury will somehow adversely affect your own future.

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