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Timm

House Price Falls Over

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/a...5g6GMzL1TQvZ5Lg

A Bank of England policymaker and mortgage market expert told MPs that he believed the worst of the UK house price falls were over. Professor David Miles - author of a Government-commissioned report on the mortgage market in 2003 and 2004 - offered more hope for the embattled property sector after Nationwide on Wednesday revealed that prices rose in June for the third time in four months.

The new member of the interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee said in a Treasury Select Committee hearing on his appointment that the market may have reached the bottom.

"Expectations are crucial in the housing market and they look a bit better now than a few months ago," he said. "My hunch - and I put it no stronger than that - is that we have seen most of the overall aggregate house price falls."

Edit: edited to tidy up post

Edited by Timm

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I read it as house prices fall over.

:)

Well if this article is true then I see no reason why they should not start raising interest rates to try to restore some respectability in the Pound.

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"My hunch - and I put it no stronger than that - is that we have seen most of the overall aggregate house price falls

Carefully worded.

So he's not ruling out a further 20% drop.

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Propoganda.

Indeed. Proff Miles also assured us in April that the worst of the recession was over. That was lies too.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ay-be-over.html

This is the same David Miles by the way who called the top of the market in Nov 2006. Nice to see him holding onto that hard won credibility.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6172088.stm

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"Expectations are crucial in the housing market and they look a bit better now than a few months ago," he said.

"My hunch - and I put it no stronger than that - is that we have seen most of the overall aggregate house price falls."

The former Morgan Stanley economist said the mortgage market had undergone a shift change since the credit crunch, although he said it had not been entirely unwelcome.

"High loan-to-value mortgage products have dried up - ultimately that is not a disaster; people will wait a bit longer to buy and rent a bit longer," he said.

Weird, he thinks that the crash is over as a result of a bit of optimism following a spring bounce but ignores the state of the economy and public finances, forgets about ultra low interest rates and flatly contradicts himself when he remember that people simply won't be able to borrow the money.

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:)

Well if this article is true then I see no reason why they should not start raising interest rates to try to restore some respectability in the Pound.

Deflation. We cant have people see theyre cost of living fall, now can we?

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I read it as house prices fall over.

I just pictured this house price tripping over a piece of carpet and stumbling onto the floor.

I should really take these issues more seriously...

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I hate these muppets. Why don't they get sacked when they get it wrong? What does it take for an economist to lose his/her reputation?

12 months from now, when house prices ARE down this monkey will still be getting paid 5 figure sums for writing reports

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I just pictured this house price tripping over a piece of carpet and stumbling onto the floor.

I think it's a good way to picture the spring bounce. Either that or the house prices bounce on a trampoline but miss on the way down and put their leg through the springs causing a nasty injury. :)

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I hate these muppets. Why don't they get sacked when they get it wrong? What does it take for an economist to lose his/her reputation? 12 months from now, when house prices ARE down this monkey will still be getting paid 5 figure sums for writing reports

IMHO he is being paid to lie.

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A Bank of England policymaker and mortgage market expert told MPs that he believed the worst of the UK house price falls were over. Professor David Miles - author of a Government-commissioned report on the mortgage market in 2003 and 2004 - offered more hope for the embattled property sector after Nationwide on Wednesday revealed that prices rose in June for the third time in four months.

There's your problem...!

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High costs and high taxes (from the bailouts) is going to be ruinous. We'll have the recession (or worse) and none of the benefits that a reduced cost base would bring. Only an crony economist could suggest that having higher costs in a competitive world market is good.

If you run a business in the UK this is the signal that nothing good is going to come from economic policy in the medium term - offshore, outsource or close your business down and asset strip it before it is too late. It is only a matter of time before an even higher debt load cripples the economy once again, maybe in a continual cycle downwards unless this cycle is broken.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/a...hjZXFeHV6cKMu8w

'Nervous' employers set to axe jobs

1 hour ago

More firms are planning to make workers redundant this summer as the uncertain economic outlook forces "nervous" employers to make cost savings, according to a new report.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said the number of human resources staff seeking advice on how to make people redundant had barely changed in recent months.

More than 5,000 calls were made to the institute's helpline last month related to redundancy.

Dr John Philpott, the CIPD's chief economist, said the figures were another sign that talk of green shoots of economic recovery was "premature."

He added: "Our figures show that there is little or no sign of any redundancy let-up, even though the UK economy has appeared more stable in recent months.

"With many HR professionals already familiar with the legal process, the continued high demand for redundancy advice might understate the number of redundancies about to be made this summer.

"The uncertain economic outlook, coupled with concerns about credit supply, is forcing the nervous hand of employers to make job cuts, which are further job cuts in many cases."

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...snip...

This is the same David Miles by the way who called the top of the market in Nov 2006. Nice to see him holding onto that hard won credibility.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6172088.stm

That 2006 call was that about 30% of prices then were speculative and not attributable to real demand. As there were further speculative rises through 2007 then we'd expect the speculative element to have grown.

So a 30% fall [remembering that % falls need not be as big as % rises to get back to the starting point] would be enough to work out the speculative elements.

But, these things have a very nasty habit of overshooting on the downside.

I guess now he's in the MPC he's part of the establishment shoring up the defences to try to help prevent the overshoot.

I get an image of that little Dutch boy with his finger in a dyke - but less successful.

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I think it's a good way to picture the spring bounce. Either that or the house prices bounce on a trampoline but miss on the way down and put their leg through the springs causing a nasty injury. :)

As is often the case in life, it is not always the risk taker who takes the pain for their actions...

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Carefully worded.

So he's not ruling out a further 20% drop.

That's a masterpiece of understatement if ever there was one. Unless I've totally missed something, he doesn't appear to be ruling anything either in or out. Still, it saves having to point into the distance, shout "Look! It's Elvis!", then run away.

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As is often the case in life, it is not always the risk taker who takes the pain for their actions...

I didn't watch all of that, I could see where it was going (them poles maybe?). Ouch!!

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I didn't watch all of that, I could see where it was going (them poles maybe?). Ouch!!

No, not poles... the clue is in my text

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If i've just had a collision with a barrier and my car has just ceased rolling over 10 times, but is now 'just' sliding, then yes the worst of the crash is over.

All I've got to hope now is I don't slide under a moving lorry.

If I knew I was to be shot ten times, then after the ninth bullet I can concole myself that at least the worst of the ordeal is over.

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If i've just had a collision with a barrier and my car has just ceased rolling over 10 times, but is now 'just' sliding, then yes the worst of the crash is over.

All I've got to hope now is I don't slide under a moving lorry.

If I knew I was to be shot ten times, then after the ninth bullet I can concole myself that at least the worst of the ordeal is over.

Actually after the sixth bullet the worst is over, only 4 more to go. As has been pointed out, only the extreme speculative prices have been cut, we now will forward to a crash from the level of the 1990 crash, for that is where we are now (well, expect the economic situation is even worse).

This is also coming from a government who will just lose their wealth from being booted out off off, but their jobs. The government is the biggest VI in the country.

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Actually after the sixth bullet the worst is over, only 4 more to go. As has been pointed out, only the extreme speculative prices have been cut, we now will forward to a crash from the level of the 1990 crash, for that is where we are now (well, expect the economic situation is even worse).

This is also coming from a government who will just lose their wealth from being booted out off off, but their jobs. The government is the biggest VI in the country.

This is the real fight - the Government and their definition of affordable.

Question is what can we do about it?

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