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What Has Happened To The 90% Group?

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What Has Happened To The 90% Group?

Up or down OP?

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They seemed to have gone a bit quiet in the last 2-3 months.

If you mean those of us that think prices will drop 90% from peak then we are still here, and we are still right. prices will drop 90%.

We know this is the bull trap, but at the same time we've stopped telling everyone prices will drop 90% as people are starting to feel serious pain as a result of house price drops.

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I'll probably be labelled as a troll, who cares...

I have spent the last 16 Months + on rightmove keeping an eye on prices around the £300k mark in the Milford / Witley area. Is everyone on here in agreement that this is simply a 'Bull Trap' that we are experiencing, as prices in the affore mentioned area / price region are definitely going up.

I don't care what the figures say... Where I am looking there is nothing new coming on the market, things are selling too. I'm sure there will be 5-10% off the asking price, even still, its not much of a drop over the last 16 months or so.

T350...

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I'll probably be labelled as a troll, who cares...

I have spent the last 16 Months + on rightmove keeping an eye on prices around the £300k mark in the Milford / Witley area. Is everyone on here in agreement that this is simply a 'Bull Trap' that we are experiencing, as prices in the affore mentioned area / price region are definitely going up.

I don't care what the figures say... Where I am looking there is nothing new coming on the market, things are selling too. I'm sure there will be 5-10% off the asking price, even still, its not much of a drop over the last 16 months or so.

T350...

T350 ?

We can't have had that many Terminator movies

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There have been 90% drops in Detroit and there were 90% drops in Tokyo, which suggests to me we will see 90% drops in the black spots in the UK, in what? Is it looking like 2, 3 or 4 years now?

I expect this as I expect a 60% average drop from peak. Some places will probably be down 30%, some 90% and an average of around 60%.

As for going quiet?

I've spoken my piece and I'm grateful for having the opportunity to do so but I don't want to bang on about it endlessly.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
I'll probably be labelled as a troll, who cares...

I have spent the last 16 Months + on rightmove keeping an eye on prices around the £300k mark in the Milford / Witley area. Is everyone on here in agreement that this is simply a 'Bull Trap' that we are experiencing, as prices in the affore mentioned area / price region are definitely going up.

I don't care what the figures say... Where I am looking there is nothing new coming on the market, things are selling too. I'm sure there will be 5-10% off the asking price, even still, its not much of a drop over the last 16 months or so.

T350...

The banks aren't squeezing balls yet, still gently caressing but not letting go.

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Remember Japan still hadn't bottomed, 20 years it's economy still hasn't recovered now it's got to deal with a global collapse in demand, the very demand that was just keeping it ticking over.

If wages start collapsing 90% is a real possibility.

However there are too many variables to impacting on what will happen.

How far prices will collapse is anyone's guess.

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I think it is entirely possible that this country will lose 90% of what remains of some of the manufacturing/productive industries left (ones that have already been decimated during the cost/debt bubble).

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Guest sillybear2

They all moved to Detroit.

Edited by sillybear2

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I never came out publically as a 90%-er. I have always estimated 50-60% when asked to vote in polls.

However before the crash started I did privately daydream about buying a house at 10% of peak price. I didn't think it was likely but I thought it possible.

I don't have such daydreams any more.

Not because I now think it impossible - I still think it is possible. But I realise after 2.5 years of renting that I will probably not have the patience to keep waiting until that day. I'm getting bored.

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90%!

Blimey, im one of the most bearish on here but i cant see that much coming off, i am pretty much 100% confident of 60%70% falls in real terms in the price indices though, having said that im actually relatively bullish for the next 12 months or so and can see house price indices rising a further 5 to 10% over the next 12 months in a corrective rally.

I dont see the real housing crash starting until late 2010 (as it wont start until the majority of reposessions start) and carrying on to at least end 2012.

My reasoning behind this is pretty logical

1)Public Spending Cuts and much higher taxes to pay back the gargantuan debts clearly wont happen till after the next election whoever wins. As soon as payback starts the weak recovery will collapse through even less consumer spending

2) By the end of 2010 Redundancy payments that are currently being spent will mostly have been so

3) By 2011 the 2 year mortgage relief payments will start expiring forcing reposessions (the Govt will not by this time be able to afford to extend these)

4a) These repos will force more sellers onto market as they wont be able to meet margin calls on their outstanding mortgages.

4b) The repos and lower prices will also scare the majority of BTL's bought post 2000 to get rid at whatever price they can salvage.

The spiral is a perfectly standard bubble collapse.

Of course i could be wrong with the timing and point 1) could start alot sooner if the UK bond market dictates as this would lead to the UK losing its AAA and going to the IMF who will insist on more drastic cuts more quickly.

I really dont see any other scenarios as having even the most remote possibility

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How far prices will collapse is anyone's guess.

If I may oh great one, a slight mod?

How far prices & Sterling will collapse is anyone's guess.

Is that acceptable?

It's why I see 90% being possible after years of pain.

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Is that acceptable?

It's why I see 90% being possible after years of pain.

Yes that fine, :P are you hoping for a sterling collapse to help your dollar position?

I agree with the years of pain, Japan has clung on by it's fingernails for 20 years and avoided collapse. For those that keep pushing the Japan scenario makes me uneasy because Japan never fixed the economy, exports kept it afloat the economic fundamentals just got buried under the carpet for someone to get round to at a later date. Trouble is no one did.

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They seemed to have gone a bit quiet in the last 2-3 months.

nope, I am still here. :D

new build flats in sh1tty areas will drop 90%. Some have already dropped 60% so not long to go now.

edited - I also said it in late 2006-early 2007 (under my old user name GOM), aiming for 2012 for the bottom, then it will stay flat for a decade. ;)

the best house in the best areas, minimum drop of 50%. nominal.

Edited by grumpy-old-man-returns

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There have been 90% drops in Detroit and there were 90% drops in Tokyo, which suggests to me we will see 90% drops in the black spots in the UK, in what? Is it looking like 2, 3 or 4 years now?

I expect this as I expect a 60% average drop from peak. Some places will probably be down 30%, some 90% and an average of around 60%.

As for going quiet?

I've spoken my piece and I'm grateful for having the opportunity to do so but I don't want to bang on about it endlessly.

I wouldn't be surprised if you can find evidence before this is over of a few individual properties that fell soemthing in the region of 90%..... I beleive there have already been quite a large number in the 50%-60% area ( many new build buy to lets gone wrong)..... it'll probably be difficult to porve from previous selling price but perhaps possible from initial asking price.

I don't however think there will be nearly enough high fallers to drag the market numbers overall down by 60%.... I suspect theres already quite a large proportion of the distressed stuff in the figures already and we are still only at something like 20% ( or have we gone below that even with the recent "rises" buit into the numbers).

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Can someone post a link to the 90% club thread. The search function just comes back with error when I try and search for it.

Sorry if this is the incorrect section to post this in.

Thanks!

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T350 ?

We can't have had that many Terminator movies

Maybe he's from the future

Edit to add: The only way 90% is going to happen is in real terms.

GOM, you expect hyper-inflation and yet expect 50-90% nominal house price drops - isn't this just a tiny bit contradictory. I guess you are just complex ;)

Edited by Super Mario

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I dont see the real housing crash starting until late 2010 (as it wont start until the majority of reposessions start) and carrying on to at least end 2012.

My reasoning behind this is pretty logical

1)Public Spending Cuts and much higher taxes to pay back the gargantuan debts clearly wont happen till after the next election whoever wins. As soon as payback starts the weak recovery will collapse through even less consumer spending

2) By the end of 2010 Redundancy payments that are currently being spent will mostly have been so

3) By 2011 the 2 year mortgage relief payments will start expiring forcing reposessions (the Govt will not by this time be able to afford to extend these)

4a) These repos will force more sellers onto market as they wont be able to meet margin calls on their outstanding mortgages.

4b) The repos and lower prices will also scare the majority of BTL's bought post 2000 to get rid at whatever price they can salvage.

The spiral is a perfectly standard bubble collapse.

Of course i could be wrong with the timing and point 1) could start alot sooner if the UK bond market dictates as this would lead to the UK losing its AAA and going to the IMF who will insist on more drastic cuts more quickly.

I really dont see any other scenarios as having even the most remote possibility

Yes, good points and logical argument.

There are a lot of mortgages out there on two year life-support from the taxpayer.

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