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arsenal20

Isit Time To Short The Ftse

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The FTSE will probably fall to around 3200 over the coming months do u guys think we should short it now

On what do you base that?

I base my belief that the FTSE will fall to 2995 because I keep have dreams about it doing so.

Do you dream?

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IMO, if there was a free market in stocks, then it would be time to short the FTSE, and S&P, & Nasdaq, and DAX, etc. Indeed I am short the FTSE & S&P. FTSE I called too early (down about 5% now), S&P I'm up marginally. However, considering all the bad news, the prolongued stock bounce has emphasised to me how often the fundamentals have been forgotten. Also, the frequent, unexplained up-ticks in indices, particularly in the US, have seemed rather, er, suspicious. So although I'm bearish on stocks and was ready to short big time, I'm staying out at the moment until there's at least the beginnings of a run, or I might just trickle funds in on a regular basis (talking short ETFs).

Just seen this and it confirms suspicions often made by other posters in the S&P thread on here regarding stock manipulation as discussed on CNBC in the States:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1173-And...nipulation.html

I'm not normally one for conspiracy theories, but there seems to be something going on. I'm not sure there's any point trading in stocks at all if the game is rigged.

Edited by mikthe20

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The market may crash, but it's just as likely to soar IMHO.

I'm slowly buying into high yielding equity income unit trusts, plus doing a bit of short term trading if I see anything that's oversold.

I'm wary of the short ETFs - the last one I bought had a horrible spread.

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i madea mistake and shorted it at 4265 and know its gone to 4300, will it go any higher

:lol: I went short at 4450 and then it cruised back over 4500, feared a sustained rally so was glad to get out at 4455 and look what happened. Sods law.

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I'm wary of shorts full stop. And the lower the market is the more wary I am. The balance is strongly in favour of going long in fact - due to dividends, inflation, downside limit fixed whilst upside unlimited etc. etc. You have to have a very good reason and very high confidence to go short. That's not to say those circumstances can't arise - just pointing out the asymmetrical chances in investing.

Agree the lower a market goes, the less the chance it will carry on going down. And yes, we are a long way down compared to highs. However, fundamental economic reasons suggest very little sustained growth in future until the debt problem is resolved - and that problem is with personal, commercial and government debt. Also, S&P and Nasdaq p/e ratios are extremely high on an operating level, with compaines having kept their valuations high despite reduced sales by cutting costs - they cannot do this very often. Similarly, I think dividends have been kept high despite poor operating results. Economic and valuation fundamentals therefore suggest to me FTSE, S&P, Nasdaq are overvalued. But one thing I am learning is that the market can be irrational a long time.

EDIT: Consider this.

A share yields 5% pa. After 5 years the share is down 20%. Which way would it have been better to invest, long, short or wait?

Obviously you don't necessarily know whether the share will be up or down at the point you make that decision. However, if you were to time your investment randomly, there is a greater than 50% chance that the share will be up.

I still don't buy the inflation argument (but keep looking at it). In that context, you can get 5% on cash fixed for 5 years. Better than your 5% yield on stock with no risk. As I say, I think dividends are being kept artificilly high and can't be sustained come year ends in 2010. There is no sign that people are buying more stuff from companies - everything suggests they are buying less.

EDIT2: Apologies for the mother and egg sucking lecture. :)

Eggs duly sucked (yeew!!). Like these debates - keeps everyone on their toes. Overall, I don't see mcuh upside - maybe 10% - and I'm not a follower of market trends if they are against fundamentals - I don't trade frequently and am not on-the-ball enough to do so. However, I think there's a lot of downside pressure for fundamental reasons and we'd be down a lot more if it wasn't for intervention in US stocks.

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im on ig markets with a 90 points stop. If it falls another 60 points i lose 900 pounds, wot do u guys tihnk will it go back down

Can you clarify what you're doing? You went short at 4265 by mistake? You mean you didn't mean to go short or you think it's a mistake because the market then rose?

What's your time frame for the trade (£15 a point?? - i.e. £64,000 nominal??) and why did you choose 90 points away as your stop? Just out of interest...........

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The FTSE will probably fall to around 3200 over the coming months do u guys think we should short it now

With the benefit of hindsight, the answer was probably no. It went down for just over a week, then shot back up again.

I went into the FTSE All Share pretty close to the bottom of the market in March - probably more luck than judgement. Should I sell or hold now?

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