Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Sybil13

Said I Wouldn't Post But A Quick Q Re Apparent Fall In Instructions

Recommended Posts

As you all know I do not have a lot of time and I said on Saturday I would no longer post because threads are being ruined by McT and Rinoa neither of them interested in looking at facts and figures and considering what is sustainable and not simply supportive of their vested interest.

We have read a lot recently, including Hometrack out today, that the current apparent property value stability is being caused by lack of supply vs % increase in buyers.

As the supply demand issue seems to be the one that could skew figures and delay the crash I thought it was worth taking a look at what kind of figures we are looking at.

FT last week :

As the FT points out this morning, all these people stuck in their homes are creating a glut of hidden property , which in turn is likely to depress house prices further. Even a short term rise in prices, Fitch argues, is likely to make things worse in the longer term, by encouraging trapped sellers to put their homes in the market, which in turn will push prices down again. It sounds like a vicious circle with no way out, for the immediate future at least

Fitch predicts 35% falls peak to trough.

Figures National Association of Estate Agents:

House Buyers on Books

June 2006

367

June 2007

344

June 2008

247

June 2009

299

Property Per Agent

June 2006

66

June 2007

Housing stock surged in May. Nationally, the number of properties per agent leapt 16.1% from 62 in April to 72. This is considerably higher than figures seen at the same time last year, when the average number of properties per agent was 66. It is in fact the highest figure recorded by the survey since December 2005. The dramatic increase is likely to be the result of a desire by homeowners to avoid the anticipated HIPs legislation, originally due to launch on June 1st. The latest numbers indicate the aversion of house sellers to the legislation and the lengths they are willing to go to avoid them.

June 2008

97

June 2009

69

Sales Per Agent

June 2006

15

June 2007

13

June 2008

7

June 2009

10

With regards the last figure however, it is interesting to note that First Rung said:

UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. Estate agents now have on average seventy properties each on their books, and are only selling ten per month according to RICS...

However, this RICS contention is not supported by recorded data. With only 35,000 property sales a month, according to Land Registry, and the head count of agents being circa the same this would suggest that agents are in fact only selling on average one property per month.

So is it me, or does the ratio of property on books to number of potential buyers look that much different year to year?

So is the problem not the stock ratio but the FACT that nobody wants the overvalued stock the agents have?

If anyone has the time to explain I would be most appreciative.

Edited by Sybil13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Word count = 533

"A quick Q"

yes, I can see you are short of time these days :lol:

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Word count = 533

"A quick Q"

yes, I can see you are short of time these days :lol:

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Sybil wouldn't know a brief question if it slapped her around the head.

It's another Sybil Spam post, where she tries to insert her own twisted logic into the wider debate.

Twisted Sybil logic: Supply and demand seems to be the one issue that could skew figures and delay crash.

Reality: Supply and demand is the fundamental driver of the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sybil wouldn't know a brief question if it slapped her around the head.

what's the difference between Sybil and Sibley?

one letter and 10,000 words

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Reality: Supply and demand is the fundamental driver of the market.

Not quite you also need to factor in price, affordability and such things like inelasticity of demand.

Supply and demand is far too simplistic. But then someone who's done at least GSCE economics would grasp that fact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not quite you also need to factor in price, affordability and such things like inelasticity of demand.

Supply and demand is far too simplistic. But then someone who's done at least GSCE economics would grasp that fact.

I of course was not arguing for the supply and demand argument I was merely stating that this is what everyone else is saying that it is the lack of supply that is driving houseprices up looking at the figures it is hard to see why when the number of properties on the agents books are pretty average . That is the point I was trying to make but might have known it would simply open the door for a whole load more abuse .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I of course was not arguing for the supply and demand argument I was merely stating that this is what everyone else is saying that it is the lack of supply that is driving houseprices up looking at the figures it is hard to see why when the number of properties on the agents books are pretty average . That is the point I was trying to make but might have known it would simply open the door for a whole load more abuse .

I wasn't having a dig at you.

God I've been upsetting everyone this weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not quite you also need to factor in price, affordability and such things like inelasticity of demand.

Supply and demand is far too simplistic. But then someone who's done at least GSCE economics would grasp that fact.

I 'd agree.. quite apart from anything else many if not the vast majority of those who are selling a house will then be buying another when they have sold.. so in that sense a seller cancels themselves out... whats the net position buyers vs sellers currently.... who knows, its impossible to work out from info on houses for sale etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I of course was not arguing for the supply and demand argument I was merely stating that this is what everyone else is saying that it is the lack of supply that is driving houseprices up looking at the figures it is hard to see why when the number of properties on the agents books are pretty average . That is the point I was trying to make but might have known it would simply open the door for a whole load more abuse .

There is a great need for housing in the UK. There isn't enough houses/flates/apartments to house people where they want to live. We all know that. There are a large proportion on this forum who are "waiting to buy" thus the pent up demand.

Demand, especially in terms of houses, equates to the number of people who want to buy a house and are able to.

If house prices dropped a further 75% there would be a massive demand. The demand/supply equilibrium sets the actual price.

Examples; Interest rates go up, demand goes down. Unemployment goes up demand goes down. Tighter restrictions on credit demand goes down. Less confidence in market prices go down. Rents decrease as proportion of house price demand goes down. Nett imigration goes negative need falls which in turn puts demand down. NEED FOR HOUSING GOES UP PRICES GO UP

There are a number of other affecting factors (maybe I should list them and look at each on affect on market) and as you may notice "need" is only one factor.

It is an important factor and is probably the strongest point current housing market bulls have.

Is the shortage of property holding up house prices?

To some degree it must be, but I suggest it is not as important a factor as other bearish factors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wasn't having a dig at you.

God I've been upsetting everyone this weekend.

Of course you have not upset me, I am sorry I gave that impression I was merely using your reply to say this was not about supply and demand. It was silly of me to lead the thread that way by the title.

I am aware of course that there are many many other factors playing in here.

1. Interest Rates

2. Funding

3. Affordability & FTB's ability to get on the ladder

etc etc.

Of course it was probably also silly of me to think that people on website relating to information regarding the HPC might be interested in considering the figures for the past 4 years and asking if there is indeed a lack of supply, or just too many overvalued properties?

If the average over the years, according to the NAEA figures I have quoted has been around 66 properties per agent then even if we have had an increase in potential buyers I can't see on what basis the market we have would be considered anything other than a normal market according to the figures. BUT I assume if the comment by First Rung is correct and the agents are only selling 1 property each per month (not professed 10), then although there seems to be a normal number of properties per agent they are, I assume, mosly simply overvalued old stock.

In June 2006 the figures I have posted confirm there were 367 potential buyers and 66 properties per agent.

In June 2009 we have 299 potential buyers with 69 properties per agent so why are we hearing that it is due limited new instructions that property prices are being propped up?

I know that perhaps I should simply start talking about how much equity I have in property and where I live and how property in my area will not go down, as this seems to be what people on HPC seem to want to talk about. I had hoped that my 10000 words might be of interest but if they are not , that's cool.

Edited by Sybil13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The market equilibrium.

It doesn't exist apart from on paper and if achieved will only be maintained for the briefest of periods until it's back into disequilibrium.

Edited by interestrateripoff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I of course was not arguing for the supply and demand argument I was merely stating that this is what everyone else is saying that it is the lack of supply that is driving houseprices up looking at the figures it is hard to see why when the number of properties on the agents books are pretty average . That is the point I was trying to make but might have known it would simply open the door for a whole load more abuse .

Sybil,

Word of encouragement here, keep it up with your posts. Good work.

Re your question, difficult to say why exactly without a deeper look at all figures. It is typically very difficult, although not impossible, to have absolute stock numbers I believe as this would part of EA's advantage/disadvantage and they try to make quite opaque. One possible answer to your question may be in the actual number of agents today compared with previous years... ;-) The figures you show above are "per agent".

Appart from that diverse sources acknowledge already the current low stock levels, historical (Nationwide, Rightmove etc, you know already these sources anyways ;-) )

Edited by Old_Traveller

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Sybil wouldn't know a brief question if it slapped her around the head.

It's another Sybil Spam post, where she tries to insert her own twisted logic into the wider debate.

Twisted Sybil logic: Supply and demand seems to be the one issue that could skew figures and delay crash.

Reality: Supply and demand is the fundamental driver of the market.

D*ckhead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The market equilibrium.

It doesn't exist apart from on paper and if achieved will only be maintained for the briefest of periods until it's back into disequilibrium.

Maybe

I would say it is important to remember the uk housing market is dynamic. It is always on the move and will not stay static.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Vicious circles have a habit of breaking on their own. It wasn't that long ago that people were being forced into renting because they couldn't buy, this encouraged buy to let, which pushed prices up, which pushed more people into renting. It appeared self sustaining but it never was.

Going the other way we know there will be a point where property becomes "too cheap" and things will bottom out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2007 if i walked into an Estate Agent (which i did!),there was probably 6/7 properties

i might be interested in.

Today if i walked into an Estate Agent(which i do) there's none that i'm interested in.Haven't seen a House since March.

BS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As you all know I do not have a lot of time and I said on Saturday I would no longer post because threads are being ruined by McT and Rinoa neither of them interested in looking at facts and figures and considering what is sustainable and not simply supportive of their vested interest.

We have read a lot recently, including Hometrack out today, that the current apparent property value stability is being caused by lack of supply vs % increase in buyers.

As the supply demand issue seems to be the one that could skew figures and delay the crash I thought it was worth taking a look at what kind of figures we are looking at.

FT last week :

Fitch predicts 35% falls peak to trough.

Figures National Association of Estate Agents:

House Buyers on Books

June 2006

367

June 2007

344

June 2008

247

June 2009

299

Property Per Agent

June 2006

66

June 2007

Housing stock surged in May. Nationally, the number of properties per agent leapt 16.1% from 62 in April to 72. This is considerably higher than figures seen at the same time last year, when the average number of properties per agent was 66. It is in fact the highest figure recorded by the survey since December 2005. The dramatic increase is likely to be the result of a desire by homeowners to avoid the anticipated HIPs legislation, originally due to launch on June 1st. The latest numbers indicate the aversion of house sellers to the legislation and the lengths they are willing to go to avoid them.

June 2008

97

June 2009

69

Sales Per Agent

June 2006

15

June 2007

13

June 2008

7

June 2009

10

With regards the last figure however, it is interesting to note that First Rung said:

So is it me, or does the ratio of property on books to number of potential buyers look that much different year to year?

So is the problem not the stock ratio but the FACT that nobody wants the overvalued stock the agents have?

If anyone has the time to explain I would be most appreciative.

Come on Sybil. They don't ruin your posts just because they don't agree with them - it's great fun. How would it be if everyone just agreed with you?

You and Rinoa are similar in that you both post lots of statistics that are biased towards your own points of view. The trouble is there are so many sources and these are compiled so very differently.

Your own sentence above seems to sum up the market to me. You may have reached that conclusion from wading through lots of figures but it's spot on anyway.

In 2007 if i walked into an Estate Agent (which i did!),there was probably 6/7 properties

i might be interested in.

Today if i walked into an Estate Agent(which i do) there's none that i'm interested in.Haven't seen a House since March.

BS

Absolutely!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   288 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.