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The Masked Tulip

Smack In The Middle Of The Greatest Stocks Bear Market Of Our Lifetime

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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11641.html

I believe we are smack dab in the middle of the biggest stock bear market any of us will witness in our lifetime. This colors my views on investing tremendously and creates an inherent bias. If you don't subscribe to the same view, my rants probably seem a little over the top. But when the P:E ratio is well over 100 during the worst housing market crash and bank and Wall Street wipeout since the last great generational bear market (i.e. the 1929-1932 bear) occurs, it's time to take notice.
Another great credit contraction is occurring in front of our eyes and such events take more than 1-2 years to sort themselves out. Another 5 banks failed this week, the largest weekly number for the FDIC to sort out since this cyclical bear market began. There will be more - many, many more.

Technical analysis is a tool many use to time investments or speculations and it is easy to get overly wrapped up in the squiggles on a chart and the indicators and what they mean. I love looking at historical chart patterns to get a sense of what's possible and what's reasonable. Since I think this is a "big, bad" cyclical bear market, I am looking for it to last at least 2.5 years (we are 1.7 years into the current bear).

I also am NOT looking for the markets to make a sustained thrust beyond the 200 day moving average, as this hasn't occurred in prior big, bad bear markets. A "peek-a-boo" above the 200 day moving average can occur for a month or so, but that's about it if prior credit crunch/debt deflation bear markets are a guide. So, I am placing my money on the top in the stock market being in already and patiently (or not so patiently perhaps) waiting for another steep drop right here, right now. Not a correction and then new highs, but a full on resumption of the bear market.

Then a pretty graph for those who can understand them

NYUPV_to_NYDNV_20_DMA_3_year_chart_vs_SP500_to_6-27-09.png

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Simple question: how are we going to recover? We have no money and no ability to borrow more. Simple belief in green shoots or recovery around the corner is not enough.

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I can't disagree with the OP.

I expect the downward movement to resume quite violently and quite soon.

If I was invested in the markets now I would not wish to spend an hour away from my PC - any time, any day, any moment but it is coming.

The sell-off of shares by CEOs and other Directors is a sure-sign of how much 'recovery' many companies are seeing... or, rather, are not seeing.

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He may be thinking of this: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090515.htm

(I do not know if the graph is accurate)

MoD

Basically the article has made up a completely stupid pe ratio fir American stocks. From a brief goigle search I think the pe ratio is 14 not "far in excess of 100" which kind if turds on the authors article from a great height

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The blue line is market breadth. It doesn't tell you WHO is doing the buying but it is one of the most important technical indicators. Notice the sharp increase in the a/d after each bottom.

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P/e ratio of 100. Is that made up? P/e of the s and p 500 is around 15 I thought?

Profits of S&P companies have over the last months collapsed by about 90%

(see the graph linked a few posts above).

The P/E ratio has therefore shot up in recent months.

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Profits of S&P companies have over the last months collapsed by about 90%

(see the graph linked a few posts above).

The P/E ratio has therefore shot up in recent months.

That chart is from a couple of months ago I think. Can anyone provide a link for the latest data?

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The recovery will prove all of this analysis wrong.

Yes, already they ( the dark forces ) are planning once again to skin the rabbit, the way how economics now works.

The fools will as usual step in to help the recovery albeit they won`t know they have been drawn into the sticky trap. :rolleyes:

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That chart is from a couple of months ago I think. Can anyone provide a link for the latest data?

Found this (LINK) from Barrons.

						 Last Week	  Prev. Week	Year AgoS & P 500 Index	918.90	  921.23			1278.38P/E Ratiio		   127.45		127.77			20.53

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The recovery will prove all of this analysis wrong.

The recovery of what? The only recovery there has been this year is the recovery of the remains of the crashed Air France plane...

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