Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
LuckyOne

I Have Spotted The Next Bubble ......

Recommended Posts

So we have some less bad news in a few economic statistics as businesses now think that we are in a for very long term and difficult recession rather than a full scale, thermo-nuclear depression and are rebuilding some of their inventories.

Despite this restocking of depleted inventories, we are still seeing industrial production in Europe down nearly 22% yoy, Mervyn King calling the scale of the UK deficit "truly extraordinary", the ECB lending banks EUR 442 bn at 1% for a year (an underground, more subtle version of QE), a pickup in US Initial Claims and Warren Buffet telling CNBC yesterday that he sees no signs of recovery. Equity markets also look like they might be ready to roll over again.

In the face of all of the gloomy statistics, market price action and opinons, consumer confidence is actually rising IN Euope (albeit from all time low levels) and we are seeing green shootists popping up all over the place.

It seems that a bubble could be described as an event where the underlying "price" is at odds with the fundamentals.

To call the improving expectations of investors and consumers in the face of this dire economic situation (only because a few depleted inventories are being restocked to levels still well below those that we saw before this mess started) yet another bubble is not too much of a stretch in my view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So how do we buy into this bubble, eh? :P

Of course we have no recoverh yet. Gain must be paid for with pain. There was a ten year debt boom - now there must be ten years of pain. :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So we have some less bad news in a few economic statistics as businesses now think that we are in a for very long term and difficult recession rather than a full scale, thermo-nuclear depression and are rebuilding some of their inventories.

Despite this restocking of depleted inventories, we are still seeing industrial production in Europe down nearly 22% yoy, Mervyn King calling the scale of the UK deficit "truly extraordinary", the ECB lending banks EUR 442 bn at 1% for a year (an underground, more subtle version of QE), a pickup in US Initial Claims and Warren Buffet telling CNBC yesterday that he sees no signs of recovery. Equity markets also look like they might be ready to roll over again.

In the face of all of the gloomy statistics, market price action and opinons, consumer confidence is actually rising IN Euope (albeit from all time low levels) and we are seeing green shootists popping up all over the place.

It seems that a bubble could be described as an event where the underlying "price" is at odds with the fundamentals.

To call the improving expectations of investors and consumers in the face of this dire economic situation (only because a few depleted inventories are being restocked to levels still well below those that we saw before this mess started) yet another bubble is not too much of a stretch in my view.

i said as much in a previous thread, the expectations now are in the numbers for the last six months of the year not only to live up to the forecasts for strong rebound in Q3 and Q4 but also sustainability beyond that. There clearly is an expectation for all indicators to turn green rather than the choppy waters we've had for the last few months.

As for buffet, he's looking for the next killing, so i don't pay any attention to what he says. I don't pay attention to kings comments on deficits, he clearly favours running deficits during the downturn, but does he not realise that surely the automatic stabilisers will reduce the size of that deficit with revival of the private sector - the two will necessarily come hand in hand....if he expects a recovereh then that will naturally precipitate a change in the public finances, why does he need to call for a concerted effort. Unless he doesn't understand fiscal policy.

OR maybe he should just stop speaking in public.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   288 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.