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ralphmalph

Roubini Does Half A U Turn

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As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aAt4yEp2hjq4

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As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

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Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

When ?

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As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aAt4yEp2hjq4

When?

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Did you listen to any of this?

Keywords and phrases in video:

Sort of stabilizing

Half of house sales distressed

Medium term path of fiscal policy in US is unsustainable

Expect inflation to go higher

Worry about fiscal deficits

Doubling of gdp to debt ratio from 40 to 80&

Further monitzation of the deficits (QE)

Raise taxes and risk more recession

Double dip recession

Rising oil is massive negative shock

Significant deflationary pressure

Keep rates at zero for extended period

Recovery will be weak and anaemic with extended risk

Blah blah blah

How is this any different than his usual script?

Nothing has changed, and he says its actually getting worse if you had listened to it.

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Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

When it’s all said and done, the people at either end of the scale will be wrong.

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Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

That's all that's important to you, is it not?

It's a consistent theme to your posts, which illustrates that the only reason you post here is to attempt to wind people up.

It's deeply sad, on so many levels.

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Is this a joke?

Do you not realise things don't go in a straight line EVER.

Have a look at a few graphs from past recesions and the great depression in particular and you will realise this. Also it might tell you that anyone who thinks these are green shoots should keep quiet until the fat lady sings, and in my opinion she hasn't got vocal chords. :lol:

As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aAt4yEp2hjq4

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roubini has not been saying what you said he said and if you watch him on the front page of bloomberg.com right now you will see -imo - that he is more bearish even than recently. Roubini has long said the US will exit recession late 2009-early 2010...now he is saying `long anaemic` period after with `below trend growth`...

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Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

Did you even watch the video before commenting?

In-Depth Look - Roubini On The Economy - Bloomberg

Do you seriously think this is Bullish? :o

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As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aAt4yEp2hjq4

He hasn't been completely gloomy for the past six months... that's just false if you look at many of the articles and tv interviews he's done. I'd see his midly flipflopped a little too much that is necessary, but here's an article that tries to summarise what he said in a presentation from two months ago....arguably at the height of the gloom stockmarket and forecast wise.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodg...e-tunnel-2009-3

I remember even late last year he was talking about a U-shaped recession and an 18-24 month recession for the US, and a near-depression if the right policies weren't implemented with gusto. The policy response has probably been sufficient to reduce the likelihood of a near-depression, and Dr. Gloom was perhaps a little too hasty in being so quick to revise his recession prediction.

But once again i think your fairly inaccurate in your assessment his position over the last six months. Aren't you glad for your business that someone so influential of late was arguing for such exceptional policies from governments ? One of the early advocates for a ZIRP and aggressive fiscal stimulus.

Also, it appears he was calling unemployment heading to 10% during a more prolonged recession than is now being forecase, but now he's saying employment peaking at 11% in a less severe downturn. What should we call that ? not seeing the forrest for the greenshoots ? :blink::rolleyes:

Edited by spivtastic

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He hasn't been completely gloomy for the past six months... that's just false if you look at many of the articles and tv interviews he's done. I'd see his midly flipflopped a little too much that is necessary, but here's an article that tries to summarise what he said in a presentation from two months ago....arguably at the height of the gloom stockmarket and forecast wise.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodg...e-tunnel-2009-3

I remember even late last year he was talking about a U-shaped recession and an 18-24 month recession for the US, and a near-depression if the right policies weren't implemented with gusto. The policy response has probably been sufficient to reduce the likelihood of a near-depression, and Dr. Gloom was perhaps a little too hasty in being so quick to revise his recession prediction.

Roubini has certainly been a little confusing in his position, one minute all doom and gloom and then he appears somewhere and becomes a happy clappy supporter and everything been fixed.

Personally I think the happy clappy position has a major problem the debt mountain remains and the policy response has been to create even more debt.

I hope to god that this response is correct, if not we are fooked. Can you really solve a debt crisis with more debt?

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As you know Roubini for the first six months of the year has been publically stating to any camera that he can find in a thousand mile radius that there is going to be a depression and the stock market is going to hit VicMac predictions and we have not seen the lows yet and it is all doom and the world is going back to the stone age.

Well today "The US economy sort of stabalising." Almost an apology for being wrong but not quite, wait for the future upgrades to his language, he may even mention green shoots when it is obvious that jungle is sprouting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aAt4yEp2hjq4

Maybe because it is stabalising, same as over here?

The naive view among bulls however is they think stabalisation must lead to instant recovery. And not just an average recovery, but a recovery to the highs of 2007, which we now know was a result of an unsustainable credit bubble. However the current stabalisation has been man made with monetary policy of central banks and governments across the globe, a false floor, it is not as a result of an increase in productivity that real stabalisations need. In this case stabalisation can easily be followed by further collapse, aka GD1. Debt is the issue here and that debt hasn't just disappeared, stabalisation or not. We all know we're going to be hit hard over the next few years as past failure to regulate the financial industry has to be paid for.

Edited by Namaste

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Maybe because it is stabalising, same as over here?

The naive view among bulls however is they think stabalisation must lead to instant recovery. And not just an average recovery, but a recovery to the highs of 2007, which we now know was a result of an unsustainable credit bubble. However the current stabalisation has been man made with monetary policy of central banks and governments across the globe, a false floor, it is not as a result of an increase in productivity that real stabalisations need. In this case stabalisation can easily be followed by further collapse, aka GD1. Debt is the issue here and that debt hasn't just disappeared, stabalisation or not. We all know we're going to be hit hard over the next few years as past failure to regulate the financial industry has to be paid for.

2 nails, 2 heads.

Isnt a line on a graph dropping at a steady 2% (or whatever) a month still stable? As in stable decline?

Or am i just using semantics?

Or was he?

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Here is a link to an anlysis of a Roubini article on 14th march 2009.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/...st-suckers.html

Here is the last paragraph of the Roubini article

"So, in conclusion and caveat emptor for investors: Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally ... don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats."

The S&P 500 was about 725 then now 900.

My point was three months ago Roubini was all Large Banks in the US will fail the stress test and have to put into administration (completely wrong), above do not wait too long because the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg.

Now "signs of stabalisation" and no mention of Financial Titanics.

I am not prediciting v shaped uber recovery I am just pointing out that a chap with a pessimism level off the scale, a 90% full glass is empty to him, says signs of stabalisation there just might be something going on that means no more financial titanics.

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Theres going to be a lot of bears with a lot of eggs on their faces when this is all over.

When this is all over, everyone is going to have egg on their face.

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When this is all over, everyone is going to have egg on their face.

And Hamish will be Eggish as will we all.

Difference is he will try and sell the scrambled mess as an expensive protein-based asset in short supply to gullible, naive egg lovers, hoping to buy several more smashed hen babies with the profit in order to gill more saps and allow him to retire to a castle made of chips and beans.

Yum!

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The trouble with Roubini is that he is the most high-profile bear who called the crash, and is therefore under the most pressure to continue calling the future correctly, despite current circumstances being more opaque than before the crash (when the fragility of the Ponzi system was easier to see if you were looking).

So it's more difficult for him to be quite so "visionary", but he has to say stuff because everyone wants him too. The only people still making bold long term predictions are those bears whose critique of the economy is systemic (Kunstler, Panzner, Orlov etc.). Tea-leaf readers like Roubini simply don't have a clear signal to read.

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