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DownsizingDiva

Houses Not Selling - Spring Is Over...is There Any "bounce" Left?

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Has anyone else noticed the slowdown in properties going "SSTC" on RM in the last couple of weeks? During April and May a large number of properties came onto RM and went "SSTC" within days (sometimes the same day, or within 24 hours).

Properties which have come onto RM in this area in the last couple of weeks haven't done so. Perhaps this is down to delusional asking prices - I'm not sure. Certainly a couple of properties I have considered "reasonably priced" are still sitting there, no takers.

I would have thought that we had at least another month of activity before potential buyers switch off and concentrate on their forthcoming holidays.

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yes and the only bounce is them going sstc to available.

I love property bee.

:)

Yes, seen a few of those in the last couple of weeks too. Also had an EA on the phone today asking if I was still looking for property and could he email me some "new properties they had just taken on" - the email contained properties which have been on RM for several months! Still, it's the first call I've had from an EA in the 4 weeks I've been looking at houses, so they must be getting worried that the "bounce" is about to end.

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Has anyone else noticed the slowdown in properties going "SSTC" on RM in the last couple of weeks? During April and May a large number of properties came onto RM and went "SSTC" within days (sometimes the same day, or within 24 hours).

Properties which have come onto RM in this area in the last couple of weeks haven't done so. Perhaps this is down to delusional asking prices - I'm not sure. Certainly a couple of properties I have considered "reasonably priced" are still sitting there, no takers.

I would have thought that we had at least another month of activity before potential buyers switch off and concentrate on their forthcoming holidays.

CEBR said earlier this year :

Traditionally, the Easter weekend marks the start of open season in the housing market, with new year plans for a house move turning into some serious action for estate agents. Analysis of housing transactions data shows that July almost always marks the peak month for moving home, and with a typical three to four month lead time from first enquiry to completion we can see that the Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in the estate agent’s calendar. But will this weekend mark the start of the turning point in the housing market, or another crushing disappointment for those estate agents lucky enough to still be in a job?

Merryn Somerset Webb said in her excellent article "Stay Away From Property It Has Much Further to Fall," :

The truth is that all real bear markets tend to offer the unwary investor one last opportunity to lose money. The summer of 2009 is probably that opportunity this time round.

There may well be a quite a big pick up in inquiries, transactions and even prices over the next few months. This will be partly down to the fact that, for those who have cash and want to buy at some point, the housing bear market is getting boring – and partly because a lot of property looks cheap relative to its peak price.

But the basic market conditions are still all wrong for recovery

I do feel, despite all the ramping, that we are simply moving through the eye of the storm . Don't know if you saw the report by the NAEA last week but it said:

Commentators have speculated that the shortage of homes for sale, combined with rising interest from potential buyers, may be supporting prices, although others have warned that the shortage of supply could derail the recovery. But the NAEA said the vast majority of buyers also had a property to sell, which they had not yet put on the market, and in time, this would help to reduce the shortfall.

If the "vast majority" of buyers have not even started to market their properties, then that is potentially a lot of properties due to come on the market by sellers that have NO IDEA what todays market is like. Not a clue that the average time on market is now something like 20 weeks, that offers are coming in at 30% + off peak, that lenders do not want to lend more than 30% off peak . As you know Nationwide /Rics etc have all said that as more properties come on the market HPC will resume.

The article at the weekend on Firstrung re the RM HPI said:

UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. Estate agents now have on average seventy properties each on their books, and are only selling ten per month according to RICS...

However, this RICS contention is not supported by recorded data. With only 35,000 property sales a month, according to Land Registry, and the head count of agents being circa the same this would suggest that agents are in fact only selling on average one property per month.

Up to this point people have been living in hope but HOPE was the last evil out of Pandora's box, I do not believe by the autumn all those sellers that have not sold are going to think "well perhaps next summer". A % are going to decide that they DO WANT TO SELL, and finally take off the 30% needed to get a sale , and that will start the next stage of the crash.

Most already know, and have known since the start of the year that property is already down 30% in as much as anyone buying now wants 30% off peak , it is only a matter of time.

For anyone who has not seen it this was an interesting article today:

The Negative Equity Threat to the UK Property Market

there is a significant swathe of people who are not yet technically in negative equity, but whose current loan to value is so high that they would be unable to refinance at the same rate. Many of these have so far been saved from disaster by low interest rates, but their fundamental problem remains unresolved.

As the FT points out this morning, all these people stuck in their homes are creating a ‘glut of hidden property’, which in turn is likely to depress house prices further. Even a short term rise in prices, Fitch argues, is likely to make things worse in the longer term, by encouraging trapped sellers to put their homes in the market, which in turn will push prices down again. It sounds like a vicious circle with no way out, for the immediate future at least.

Doesn't this seem to suggest that we are nowhere near the bottom merely at the stage the US was at about 18 months ago?

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Has anyone else noticed the slowdown in properties going "SSTC" on RM in the last couple of weeks? During April and May a large number of properties came onto RM and went "SSTC" within days (sometimes the same day, or within 24 hours).

Properties which have come onto RM in this area in the last couple of weeks haven't done so. Perhaps this is down to delusional asking prices - I'm not sure. Certainly a couple of properties I have considered "reasonably priced" are still sitting there, no takers.

I would have thought that we had at least another month of activity before potential buyers switch off and concentrate on their forthcoming holidays.

I have noticed this in some areas. However, the lack of decent supply maybe the cause.

In fact this is almost certainly what is behind the resent price rise data. It would appear if a good one comes on the market it gets set upon, and this type of activity will always drive prices up. What I have noticed to is that the people who are missing out on the nice ones are panicking and just buying anything, fearing they will miss out, as supply disappears

What will be interesting is if supply only drips on to the market. This may hold or even increase prices, in turn more 'would-be' sellers move away from the fear of negative equity, a few more houses are introduced to the market and you have the beginning of a functioning growing market again and this will in turn encourage lenders and the rest is the future. Only my thoughts.

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I`ve just seen a place, asking for half a mill, that has recently had a "reduced" banner attached to it.

Funny, the last reduction in asking price was July 08.

:rolleyes:

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