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  • 1 month later...

On occasion the thread may have cast doubt on the accuracy of the Rightmove survey. Concerns about its volatility, bias towards higher value properties and lack of seasonal adjustment should now be cast aside:

H&F Average Price August 2010 £747,033

H&F Average Price September 2010 £685,263

Monthly Loss £61,770

Monthly movement Minus 8.3%

The country’s biggest faller – makes you feel proud to be a resident,doesn’t it?

(A rare post but couldn't resist posting these numbers)

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On occasion the thread may have cast doubt on the accuracy of the Rightmove survey. Concerns about its volatility, bias towards higher value properties and lack of seasonal adjustment should now be cast aside:

H&F Average Price August 2010 £747,033

H&F Average Price September 2010 £685,263

Monthly Loss £61,770

Monthly movement Minus 8.3%

The country's biggest faller – makes you feel proud to be a resident,doesn't it?

(A rare post but couldn't resist posting these numbers)

It must be all the £2m+ properties that were listed in August that have been flying off the shelves?

Do you have the longterm average TLP?

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  • 2 weeks later...

@james wyatt

i am renting from kfh in fulham. i was asking about the two up two down houses around here and they sai they are going for 800-900 ish, and were 1.1-1.25m before the crisis.

can i ask in your view how many of these buyers will get squeezed if interest rates rise and or there is a down turn in the city? there must be quite a few leveraged up accountants, consultants, lawyers etc... i can see interest rates going over 10% here for several years when the denouemont finally hits. i noticed on the chelsea thread you said the market is cash purchase driven, but surely in fulham its more domestic buyers with mortgages?

Edited by denarii
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  • 4 weeks later...

In H&F we boast more than our fair share of the types of people who thoroughly upset the Great British Public. Our dramatis personae includes the greatest ogres of the contemporary cast .; In the blue corner we have Lion houses full of prop traders, hedge fund managers and pirate equity boosters, whilst In the red we present clans of recently arrived immigrants living in very expensive housing. Add to these two groups of charmers our now almost indigenous Sloane Ranger and you can see why H&F is such a popular and costly place to live.

Should there be reading this, any offspring likely to benefit from the demise of a wealthy self-made relative who suffers with a weak heart, may I suggest TLP’s “Lifestyles of the rich and/or lucky” tour. It’s an admittedly short trip down the North End Road and Parsons Green Lane, past The White Horse and terminating at The Hurlingham Club. In those few hundred metres your relative will be able to:

*PONDER the self imposed apartheid of the burqa clad Somali and GUESS the total lifetime cost to the state of her and her family. (Hint: 5 children @ £7000 pa state education bill per kid = £455,000 for schooling alone.) Don’t forget to add healthcare and Housing Benefit, Old Timer!

* PEER into the underground lifestyle of the cellar converters of the Peterborough Estate and GASP as they slather for the vitamin D we tease them with ( tablets on string provided on all tours). AGREE as they tell you £500k to move their lives from street level to below ground was money well spent. REMEMBER that the risks you took creating your business Grandad, were exactly the same as the risks these gifted bankers took creating theirs – except of course it didn’t and doesn’t really matter if they fail.

* SWOON as this seasons entire range of Gucci pumps is doused in Old Farty as Rupert misjudges his ability to hold two pints at the same time. REJOICE , Pops, as you celebrate the demise of the social mobility that let you make something of your life and now keeps dense Rupert somewhere near the top.

In less than an hour you should have your inheritance. Please make cheques for the tour payable to TLP Inc, Bank of Belize.

This post was supposed to be about the scale and effects of the changes to the Housing Benefit in H&F but I do seem to have got rather carried away on my coach trip idea – so better have a separate post on that. Coming up….

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Welcoming the world’s downtrodden and giving them everything they might need seems not to have gone down too well in some quarters and much the same reaction is forthcoming towards the local feckless and lazy.

In the March budget changes to housing benefit were announced by the last government – this fact seems to have been completely forgotten not only by Polly “final solution” Toynbee but also every other media outlet.. In the emergency June budget the proposals were amended and the Tories softened Labour’s proposals – yes, softened them.

Want to take a guess at how many households this will effect in H&F?

1 bedroom 950

2 bedroom 700

3 bedroom 150

4 bedroom 40

5 bedroom 20

And how many of these households will the changes effect:

1 bedroom 100%

2 bedroom 100%

3 bedroom 100%

4 bedroom 100%

5 bedroom 100%

What will be the weekly loss per household?

1 bedroom £19

2 bedroom £22

3 bedroom £16

4 bedroom £101

5 bedroom £239

The losses for the smaller properties look modest but admittedly I’m judging from a different place than the recipients. No doubt there will be some hard luck stories but equally others may choose to give up something else to stay in their homes.

These figures suggest to me that any change to house prices attributable directly to these changes will be negligible H&F has a total of 80,000 dwellings therefore just 2.3% of them are going to be affected. That’s simply not enough to change the market even if every loser was kicked out, and given the distribution of the losses that does not look like that’s going to happen.

On the other hand, if anyone presently receiving the benefit for a 4 or 5 bedroom property manages to stay surely the Revenue will be round. A loss of £5 or £10K can not be magically made up and if it is the benefit can not have been warranted.

In terms of the wider market , these changes affect a total of just 60 larger homes borough wide. The other day there were 159 4+ bed homes in SW6 and 55 in W6 listed for sale on Rightmove , so if all the landlords decided to sell all the properties on the same day there would be an increase in supply of around one third ( making an allowance for multiple listings on Rightmove)

One last point before Fulham’s only SWP member starts spouting: “most vulnerable in our society/ communities/ fair, progressive society for vulnerable communities/ fairly progressive fairs for the vulnerable/ vulnerably unfair fairs, fair enough, community?” let me repeat the changes detailed in the Tory budget of June 2010 are less harsh than the ones Labour announced in their budget of March 2010. The Tories decided to reverse the decision to exclude the highest rents from the calculations. ( I reckon TLP would make a great Leftie – he knows literally ALL the words).

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Sorry for the delay in replying.

To angrypirate

We do keep a record of properties which have come to the market. The problem is with negative real interest rates owners can afford to sit tight and try high prices and this does not help the liquidity.

To denarii

It would be an interesting study to examine the percentage of foreign buyers compared to other areas. Fulham has changed markedly over the years and there are many foreigners especially French, due to their nursery school and primary school. Consequently, all agents have reported a large number of French moving from their South Kensington flats and buying Fulham houses. High real interest rates would force many people to move, but my suspicion is Fulham owners have a large amount of equity and therefore may be less affected than other areas.

TLP: excellent analysis and work

James

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Want to take a guess at how many households this will effect in H&F?

1 bedroom 950

2 bedroom 700

3 bedroom 150

4 bedroom 40

5 bedroom 20

And how many of these households will the changes effect:

1 bedroom 100%

2 bedroom 100%

3 bedroom 100%

4 bedroom 100%

5 bedroom 100%

What will be the weekly loss per household?

1 bedroom £19

2 bedroom £22

3 bedroom £16

4 bedroom £101

5 bedroom £239

How did you source these figures?

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  • 4 weeks later...

it would be far simpler to send the scum back to their home countries instead of polluting our country with somalians and similar who will offer virtually nothing to the country and most of the adults of whom dont abide by the laws.

speaking of scum the only thing i dont like about fulham is the hordes of scum who arrive a couple of hours before a football match. i had honestly forgotten that people like that still existed.... and they probably vote Labour as well.

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  • 1 month later...
  • 4 weeks later...

The fragrant Miriam Clegg and her shag-adventurous beau, Nick, live south of the river. in Putney. In a semi. Nowadays various coppers freeze their bits off guarding Clegg Towers. The other half of the semi put it up for sale at 2.8but as soon as the coalition was formed reduced it to 2.6. Just walked by and Savills is saying under offer - we will see what it trades at. ( Those fools who got involved in the Ocado IPO will be pleased to hear there was a large delivery of jamon, boquerones y patatas fritatas going into Parkfields.)

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  • 2 months later...

The fragrant Miriam Clegg and her shag-adventurous beau, Nick, live south of the river. in Putney. In a semi. Nowadays various coppers freeze their bits off guarding Clegg Towers. The other half of the semi put it up for sale at 2.8but as soon as the coalition was formed reduced it to 2.6. Just walked by and Savills is saying under offer - we will see what it trades at. ( Those fools who got involved in the Ocado IPO will be pleased to hear there was a large delivery of jamon, boquerones y patatas fritatas going into Parkfields.)

No camarónes.......que pena.......I would like to be in a coalition with Mrs Clegg.

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