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DrGUID

News From 1930

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great stuff.

indicating really that not a lot changes.....this i found interesting.

Even if unemployment hit a high level of 10%, remaining 90% should still make installment payments. Other indicators show the country's wealth and purchasing power hasn't been substantially hurt: department store sales for the first four months of 1930 are only 3 1/2 percent below 1929; bank deposits at 30 banks in New York district were at record levels in April; total corporate profits for the first quarter, while down from 1929, were up 5% from 1928. Commodity price decline is serious, but it's very unlikely that this decline will continue since current industrial production is below consumption, and corporations are rich in cash and low on inventory.

unemployment about to hit 10% this year in the US. Wealth and purchasing power hasn't been substantially hurt this time around either. people still spending in the shops....life goes on etc.

they too had a central bank at the time concerned about raising rates without clear signs of economic recovery. And yet they continue to be blamed for raising rates too soon causing the second leg by modern day commentators who say we've supposedly learnt from past mistakes. Sounds more like we're following their lead in response.

i think the only thing we've learnt is that boom-bust still very much exists.

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I found this particularly interesting:

Now let's see, a country that has a big creditor position, a production capacity too big for its own people to absorb, and that therefore is loaning money to other countries to get recycled back into a trade surplus... might that remind you of any country today? (Hint: A Inch). Now, I'm ashamed to admit that until I saw that item it hadn't occurred to me that while the current situation might bear some resemblance to 1930, the countries might have to be shuffled around to really make things correspond - the flash of insight was blinding! Well, if China now is us then, then who then are we now? Let's see ... proud owner of the world's reserve currency franchise ... running sizable merchandise trade deficits ... I think I got it! (Hint: Baring Attire). OK, but then who now is Germany then? Let's see ... huge outstanding debts, postponing dealing with them as long as possible through a series of temporary gimmicks, government reaching a state of deadlock... got it! (Hint: Facial Iron)

Hmm ... that isn't exactly encouraging when it comes to what happens next ... although, on the bright side, at least in the case of California the consequences of having a strange looking Austrian in charge haven't been anywhere near as drastic this time ...

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I found this particularly interesting:

Now let's see, a country that has a big creditor position, a production capacity too big for its own people to absorb, and that therefore is loaning money to other countries to get recycled back into a trade surplus... might that remind you of any country today? (Hint: A Inch). Now, I'm ashamed to admit that until I saw that item it hadn't occurred to me that while the current situation might bear some resemblance to 1930, the countries might have to be shuffled around to really make things correspond - the flash of insight was blinding! Well, if China now is us then, then who then are we now? Let's see ... proud owner of the world's reserve currency franchise ... running sizable merchandise trade deficits ... I think I got it! (Hint: Baring Attire). OK, but then who now is Germany then? Let's see ... huge outstanding debts, postponing dealing with them as long as possible through a series of temporary gimmicks, government reaching a state of deadlock... got it! (Hint: Facial Iron)

Hmm ... that isn't exactly encouraging when it comes to what happens next ... although, on the bright side, at least in the case of California the consequences of having a strange looking Austrian in charge haven't been anywhere near as drastic this time ...

What the hell you talking about?

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I found this particularly interesting:

Now let's see, a country that has a big creditor position, a production capacity too big for its own people to absorb, and that therefore is loaning money to other countries to get recycled back into a trade surplus... might that remind you of any country today? (Hint: A Inch). Now, I'm ashamed to admit that until I saw that item it hadn't occurred to me that while the current situation might bear some resemblance to 1930, the countries might have to be shuffled around to really make things correspond - the flash of insight was blinding! Well, if China now is us then, then who then are we now? Let's see ... proud owner of the world's reserve currency franchise ... running sizable merchandise trade deficits ... I think I got it! (Hint: Baring Attire). OK, but then who now is Germany then? Let's see ... huge outstanding debts, postponing dealing with them as long as possible through a series of temporary gimmicks, government reaching a state of deadlock... got it! (Hint: Facial Iron)

Hmm ... that isn't exactly encouraging when it comes to what happens next ... although, on the bright side, at least in the case of California the consequences of having a strange looking Austrian in charge haven't been anywhere near as drastic this time ...

Good post :lol:

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What the hell you talking about?

china is what america was to the 1930s.

Edit to add:

China might be able to absorb its own excess capacity though.

Lot of people, and a govt that could force these things to happen.

Edited by bobthe~

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What the hell you talking about?
china is what america was to the 1930s.

...and the US is now the collapsing Empire, as the UK was then, while Germany then = Kalifornia now

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I found this particularly interesting:

Now let's see, a country that has a big creditor position, a production capacity too big for its own people to absorb, and that therefore is loaning money to other countries to get recycled back into a trade surplus... might that remind you of any country today? (Hint: A Inch). Now, I'm ashamed to admit that until I saw that item it hadn't occurred to me that while the current situation might bear some resemblance to 1930, the countries might have to be shuffled around to really make things correspond - the flash of insight was blinding! Well, if China now is us then, then who then are we now? Let's see ... proud owner of the world's reserve currency franchise ... running sizable merchandise trade deficits ... I think I got it! (Hint: Baring Attire). OK, but then who now is Germany then? Let's see ... huge outstanding debts, postponing dealing with them as long as possible through a series of temporary gimmicks, government reaching a state of deadlock... got it! (Hint: Facial Iron)

Hmm ... that isn't exactly encouraging when it comes to what happens next ... although, on the bright side, at least in the case of California the consequences of having a strange looking Austrian in charge haven't been anywhere near as drastic this time ...

yep, good post. Hello United Kingdom of Wiemar......:D

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