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Residential Property Transactions May 2009

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Wow - I never realised transaction volumes peaked so markedly in 2007. A lot of people are going to have a lot of regrets.

Not me, I STR'd back then :)

GLOAT

GLOAT

GLOAT

;)

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i know that there was a very strong correlation between volume of transactions & prices in the period leading up to the peak of the bubble, but going forwards i don't necessarily see why this needs to be the case. i can't get too excited about this indicator.

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it?

Does this mean we won't see that smug face blowing a kiss at us? I hate violence towards women, but I really want to slap that face hard! I only restrain myself from punching the computer because I know that smile will be gone for a decade after this tiny little bull trap is over.

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Wow - I never realised transaction volumes peaked so markedly in 2007. A lot of people are going to have a lot of regrets.

About 1.7 million of them if I'm reading that graph right.

her.

Columbo / Roy Cropper.

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Hmmm, isn't this potentially bad news in terms of getting a quick fall in prices moving? Surely a fall in transactions just shows the market is still broken? I'd think we'd need increased transactions to reinforce and speed up the price falls.

To me, this suggests a few more months of the buyer/seller stand-off, until prices fall and more transactions take place at the new, lower, prices.

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Hmmm, isn't this potentially bad news in terms of getting a quick fall in prices moving? Surely a fall in transactions just shows the market is still broken? I'd think we'd need increased transactions to reinforce and speed up the price falls.

To me, this suggests a few more months of the buyer/seller stand-off, until prices fall and more transactions take place at the new, lower, prices.

X2

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X2

Catch-22. No falls without lower volumes, lower volumes due to sellers refusing to sell at lower prices.

Phoney war I am afraid. THink the carnage in Q4 Q1-4 2010 will sort that though....

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i know that there was a very strong correlation between volume of transactions & prices in the period leading up to the peak of the bubble, but going forwards i don't necessarily see why this needs to be the case. i can't get too excited about this indicator.

I think it's worth keeping an eye on the transactions vs approvals numbers.

The chart below plots the two series, and obviously transactions should lag approvals. On this basis May's dip in transactions may simply be statistical noise (and the numbers are subject to revision). On the other hand it could indicate that cash buyers are becoming less prevalent.

transvsapprovals0509.gif

Here's an interesting chart from the Essential Information Group who collate auction data. This is a rolling 3-month series, and note how repossessions being sent to auction have dropped dramatically. This may be leading to fewer cash buyers at present.

ResReposOffered.png

EI Group June Newsletter

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Catch-22. No falls without lower volumes, lower volumes due to sellers refusing to sell at lower prices.

Phoney war I am afraid. THink the carnage in Q4 Q1-4 2010 will sort that though....

Aye, I was predicting a bottom around Easter 2010, now I'm thinking it'll take all of 2010 to reach the nadir.

So more renting for me then ...

EDIT: homes, not boys.

Edited by keef

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May 2009

SA 60,000 (-6.2% m-o-m, -31.8% y-o-y)

NSA 62,000 (+6.9% m-o-m, -31.9% y-o-y)

This has been one of Rinoa's favourite statistics recently (at least when it was rising ;) ).

Fair enough.

And, unlike the misery sodden bears posting on other news today, I shall accept those figures as they stand. Facts are facts.

:)

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A quick google reveals rinoa to be a final fantasy character.

An estate agent celebrating the green shoots.... a "final fantasy" if you will??

I'm beginning to think it's an invention of Fubra's

Edited by sbn

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<snip>

Here's an interesting chart from the Essential Information Group who collate auction data. This is a rolling 3-month series, and note how repossessions being sent to auction have dropped dramatically. This may be leading to fewer cash buyers at present.

ResReposOffered.png

EI Group June Newsletter

That's an interesting idea, although I wonder what caused the dip in auctioned repos.

Could it be that the increased number of buyers with mortgages are getting to properties before the bank send them to auction?

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Catch-22. No falls without lower volumes, lower volumes due to sellers refusing to sell at lower prices.

Phoney war I am afraid. THink the carnage in Q4 Q1-4 2010 will sort that though....

Spot on. We're in no-man's land at the moment. Although negative equity will prevent sales volumes from returning to 2007 levels for a very long time, I'm hoping that another wave of price drops will break the back of this and we'll see decent sales volumes at 30% off peak by this time next year.

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