bobthe~ Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 I would be interested to know whether some of this is due in part to the Bldg Societies exitting/going under/pricing themselves less competitively. Does anyone have an idea of the proportion that the BBA now has out of total lending as reported by BofE compared to what it was say 2-3 years ago? This is not my denial that things are "improving", but it may well explain part of the rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonToManchester Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 (edited) LTM, RE inflation, so, where is the money coming for to pay for high mortgage costs if other living costs are going to go up?You cant have an increase in essential commodity costs without it kicking the life out of equity prices. In this case house values. Other than food what other essential commodity is on it's way up? A year ago I was paying £1.15 for petrol this morning I paid £1. Seems good to me! Edit to add all inflation numbers seem to be falling so how are living costs increasing? Some would say that the basket of items does not represent real inflation which I partly agree with. But the basket does represent near term changes in interest rates. Edited June 23, 2009 by LondonToManchester Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LettingsLady Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Mortgage lending by the UK's major banks has returned to levels seen early last year, figures show.The number of approvals for house purchases rose to 31,162 in May, up 15.8% compared with the same month a year ago. But the British Bankers' Association (BBA) data also shows that borrowing on credit cards has dropped owing to householders' economic uncertainty. Various lenders have raised the cost of fixed-rate mortgages in recent days. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8114414.stm Back to 2007 soon? Oh and credit card lending is falling! I can tell you that fixed rates are increasing significantly. This is having an impact on current applications. Oh and it was crap in 'the same month a year ago'. Reality check please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lambs to the slaughter Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Trends in Lending - Bank of England June 2009 Steady rise - oh yes I can just about make that out on Chart 2.4 in the above....helps if you zoom in about 400% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 We will only get back to 2007 levels of lending if they print.However in doing that they will unleash inflation. It's possible that the current level of lending is what would be deemed "normal", although I think we will see another dip shortly. printing money would guarantee a return to 2007 levels of lending for obvious reasons. it is not possible that the current level of lending would be deemed "normal". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Another 15% eh? And all this unemployment? Who'd a thunk it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Another 15% eh?And all this unemployment? Who'd a thunk it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Another 15% eh?And all this unemployment? Who'd a thunk it? don't you usually talk about figures compared with previous month ? Strange that you've switched to comparing with same month in a previous year now. Why could that be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajD Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Another 15% eh?And all this unemployment? Who'd a thunk it? Oh yes. Was wondering when you'd be showing up. The ultimate contrarian indicator - unemployment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cityfool Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 I would be interested to know whether some of this is due in part to the Bldg Societies exitting/going under/pricing themselves less competitively.Does anyone have an idea of the proportion that the BBA now has out of total lending as reported by BofE compared to what it was say 2-3 years ago? This is not my denial that things are "improving", but it may well explain part of the rise. Does anyone know the answer to this. I hadn't thought about it before. Very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 BBA approvals for house purchase figures for May/09 36,508 NSA, +13.8% YoY 31,162 SA, +7.4% MoM We had an early indication that they would be up from this graph posted here last week, Trends in Lending, (red dots) and here’s the comparison of BBA (scaled 1/0.59) versus BoE mortgage approvals for house purchase SA. We should expect this rise be reflected in the BoE figures to come out next week and, presumably, also a YoY positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godley Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 I'm not I honestly have no idea whats going to happen in the future. But I do think the housing market is bottomed!At the present time I'm not seeing any inflation other than food. That is genius. This one post is the best post I have ever read on this forum. Having no idea what is going to happen in the future but can confidantly predict the future of the housing market, that is genius which is why mere peasants like me can only laugh at the unparalled contradiction, it's logic is beyond my comprehension. I bow to your new way of thinking. Genius: A genius is someone who successfully applies a previously unknown technique in the production of a work of art, science, or calculation.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Stolen from mitchellandwebb on the dark side: Looking at the six month trend, lending is up, whilst total transactions are flat, even down a little. As MaW asks, is this a sign the cash buyers might be running out of steam? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 (edited) Looked at the BoE Total Secured Lending figures in Millions and it does look as though things have stabilised for the moment. This is the bank lending and Building society Lending in Millions. It does lump in remortgages and new purchases so is of limited value, and I haven't found out which figure is the total mortgage approvals figure yet to compare with BBA. However, it is interesting that the Building Societies seem to be recovering their lending a little, whereas the banks are flat. It appears that there is only a finite amount of money to lend, and with no remortgaging going on, that money is going into allowing house purchases. Non seasonally adjusted, there appears to be a recovery so I have posted that graph as well Edited June 23, 2009 by bobthe~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spline Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 (edited) Nice graph (Timm + M&W dark side)- the HMRC transactions are collated, IIRC, for the completion month but may still have a slight 'undercount for the most recent month' (not sure how or if they compensate?). The approvals also leads the HMRC transactions slightly. Edited June 23, 2009 by spline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingobob777 Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Followed immediately by:What don't you go away, lie down in a dark room and think about the above statements very, very carefully. Of course he doesn't know what is going to happen Of course he is allowed an opinion Your point is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Of course he doesn't know what is going to happenOf course he is allowed an opinion Your point is? He didn't say he "didn't know", he said he had "no idea". Obviously he did have an idea, otherwise he couldn't have said what his idea was. However, you are right; it is mere semantics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Surely the bulls by now must be looking at all these graphs and thinking: 'hmmm, these do look errily like the dead-cat-bounce and bubble cycle graphs that everyone has been talking about'. Probably not though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
othello Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Other than food where is the inflation?We were told TV's and stuff were going to become more expensive! Other than Sony this does not appear to be the case. Are you for real? There is more to life than plasma TVs! The pound in your pocket is worth 15% less than 5 years ago (based on CPI) and that was a period of relatively low inflation. We now have taxes and interest rates all about to go up (after the general election) to pay for the debt bubble. Then you will know inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrillsBears Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Looked at the BoE Total Secured Lending figures in Millions and it does look as though things have stabilised for the moment.This is the bank lending and Building society Lending in Millions. It does lump in remortgages and new purchases so is of limited value, and I haven't found out which figure is the total mortgage approvals figure yet to compare with BBA. However, it is interesting that the Building Societies seem to be recovering their lending a little, whereas the banks are flat. It appears that there is only a finite amount of money to lend, and with no remortgaging going on, that money is going into allowing house purchases. Non seasonally adjusted, there appears to be a recovery so I have posted that graph as well It has to be said if that's a bounce it's the worst one i've ever seen. More of a pancake. Youm Spring Pancake! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 It has to be said if that's a bounce it's the worst one i've ever seen. More of a pancake.Youm Spring Pancake! Well it is total lending and as remortgaging has gone down faster than a 10 dollar hoo-er, the money is there to lend on purchases (although re-mortgaging is pass the parcel really so why it shows at all other than any increase in amount lent, I don't know, it surely wouldn't have any value - having said that I don't know which basis the remortgage figures are shown on). I also think that we are seeing recoveries in "posh" areas. I am not sure the cash rich bottom callers are going to be buying the new builds in leeds town centre, but they are buying the nice 3/4 bedder round my way. So we may well see a recovery in some areas and none in other areas. We could find out on Friday, when the NWide publish their Q figures broken down by regions. It might also show whether there is a dead cat bounce/sustained recovery/full steam ahead bubble (delete according to views). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 It has to be said if that's a bounce it's the worst one i've ever seen. More of a pancake.Youm Spring Pancake! Have you ever seen a dead cat bounce? That's the point, it isn't a big bounce and is usually insignificant with regards to the bigger picture. Just enough to burn a few more people on the way down - always a chance to lose money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 BBA approvals for house purchase figures for May/0936,508 NSA, +13.8% YoY 31,162 SA, +7.4% MoM MoM and YoY both up. And amid all this unemployment too. How can it be? Curiously, they revised April's figure up from 27685 to 29018. So the actual MoM increase is 12.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 MoM and YoY both up. And amid all this unemployment too. How can it be? Do I detect the first faint whiff of doubt? I think the detective is starting to understand that if there is no body, no bloodstains, and no sign of a killer or a weapon, there is just the faintest of chances that there has not been a murder. Just because Mrs McMad says there was one, does not make it so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 MoM and YoY both up. And amid all this unemployment too. How can it be? Curiously, they revised April's figure up from 27685 to 29018. So the actual MoM increase is 12.5%. So have you bought recently or planning to? Serious question. A lot of bears on here are waiting to buy (myself included). It strikes me that if the recovery was genuine, then those buying in the winter at the tail of last year would have been the real property geniuses, rather than clever but misguided. A big IF, obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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