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Property Boss Calls The Bottom Of The Commercial Slump

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http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/ho...mp-1714392.html

The slump in Britain's troubled commercial property sector may finally be bottoming out, the chief executive of the property group Hammerson claimed yesterday. However, John Richards warned that only good quality assets would see a rebound.

"There are clearly signs that the fall in valuations is slowing in some sections of the market," said Mr Richards, right. "The lead indicators of that, which are the companies' share prices, show that for those groups with prime property, income is proving to be robust."

Mr Richards added that it might take until the third quarter of the year for prices begin to rise again, but that those companies with what he described as "poor quality assets and poor tenants" might experience a "double dip".

Commercial property values in Britain have fallen by 44 per cent since the market's peak in June 2007. Hammerson raised £584m through a rights issue in March to avoid breaching its loan covenants, while its shares have lost 48 per cent of their value in the past year alone. The comments by Mr Richards follow last week's declaration from Taylor Wimpey, one of the UK's biggest house builders, that the housing market would recover before the end of the year.

More green shoots.......

So if companies have poor quality assets and poor tenants won't they just go bust?

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That assessment is entirely at odds with the anecdotal evidence I encountered at the weekend. Commercial landlords are in a panic.

Someone I know in property auctions is so overloaded they have to turn people away. When they suggest a starting price he halves it and if they don’t like it he tells them he can't help them - they usually call back.

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That assessment is entirely at odds with the anecdotal evidence I encountered at the weekend. Commercial landlords are in a panic.

Someone I know in property auctions is so overloaded they have to turn people away. When they suggest a starting price he halves it and if they don’t like it he tells them he can't help them - they usually call back.

thanks for that.

I am finding the same, although more through using my eyes & watching the 'To Let' signs expanding massively.

Buildings in my area that have been occupied since 2000 (& well before that in many cases, but only based on anecdotal rather than actual proof) are now empty, some for 2 years & counting.

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Video blog from a shop-keeper in NY. Always make a point of following his economic updates, always interesting on the ground stuff.

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That book by one K. Canute has misled so many :rolleyes:

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He's obviously not seen the pictures of NY's main shopping streets that were posted on Zerohedge last week.

Seriously though, when commercial property goes pop, the falls will be dramatic. In 2001 when the dot coms collapsed voids went up gradually, then there was a massive surge as the remaining dot coms realised the game was up and disappeared overnight :o .

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He's obviously not seen the pictures of NY's main shopping streets that were posted on Zerohedge last week.

Seriously though, when commercial property goes pop, the falls will be dramatic. In 2001 when the dot coms collapsed voids went up gradually, then there was a massive surge as the remaining dot coms realised the game was up and disappeared overnight :o .

Have a look at the vid, on the ground stuff. The video blogger runs a sports/shoe shop - just had a commercial property tax demand up 30% YOY after years of 7/10%. Utterly unsustainable for many. All the inflation the governments didn't want to measure is now causing the real damage when spending is not super-inflated by low rate games.

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Have a look at the vid, on the ground stuff. The video blogger runs a sports/shoe shop - just had a commercial property tax demand up 30% YOY after years of 7/10%. Utterly unsustainable for many. All the inflation the governments didn't want to measure is now causing the real damage when spending is not super-inflated by low rate games.

They didn't want to measure it as it was a good cash cow.

Why would you want it in the inflation figures when it's making you huge sums of money. Do keep up. :P:P

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Big commercial landlords have a 20% void now. That is both bad for them in that they have commercial property just sitting there brining in no cash but it also means rent prices are likely to go down further.

Commercial property is down 45%, which is a huge amount. But it could well go down more if rent prices fall further.

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When will these numpties realise that if you are having to "call the bottom" then there is no bottom. It's only once people feel there is no hope and that x is the worst investment ever and nobody wants to invest that you have reached a bottom.

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When will these numpties realise that if you are having to "call the bottom" then there is no bottom. It's only once people feel there is no hope and that x is the worst investment ever and nobody wants to invest that you have reached a bottom.

so the bottom was in march then ?

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In other news.

Man whose living depends entirely on commercial property deals, says, "invest in commercial property".

:lol:

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That assessment is entirely at odds with the anecdotal evidence I encountered at the weekend. Commercial landlords are in a panic.

Someone I know in property auctions is so overloaded they have to turn people away. When they suggest a starting price he halves it and if they don’t like it he tells them he can't help them - they usually call back.

Indeed. According to the transaction level data from HMRC, transactions are falling again towards the lows seen in march.

so the bottom was in march then ?

In terms of transactions, yes.

It then picked up and has now lost almost all of those gains.

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