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Executive Sadman

Swine Flu Maps

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I agree ths is not going to go away but correct me if i'm wrong but the kill rate is 6 in 1000 so it's not much difrent to the common flu unlike what the media tried to say when it first came out.

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Guest X-QUORK

Little point bothering to track Swine Flu, a third of us will have had it by next spring.

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I agree ths is not going to go away but correct me if i'm wrong but the kill rate is 6 in 1000 so it's not much difrent to the common flu unlike what the media tried to say when it first came out.

Apples and oranges.

Normal flu estimate is 1 in 3,600.

90-95% of these deaths are in the elderly.

Most of these deaths occur Oct-Feb.

Swine flu estimate is not clear yet.

90-95% of deaths are in young/middle aged people.

We have yet to see what happens from Oct-Feb.

The current data (http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com is most up to date) close to the outbreak suggests the following:

Mexico - 8589/253 = 1 in 34

USA - 24196/116 = 1 in 208

Canada- 6757/12 = 1 in 563

Argentina - 1212/10 = 1 in 121

It might take another 9 months before a reasonable estimate of mortality can be established.

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Flutracker is the best by far for this. Amazing detail when you zoom right in on the map.

Yes thanks for showing us this site it is very interesting.

Little point bothering to track Swine Flu, a third of us will have had it by next spring.

Yes very true as well. We are only currently seeing the disease develop slowly into the community. The true phase 1 will not start to become more evident until the Autumn and quite when will depend upon the weather, as the colder weather has the effect to keep larger groups of people in situations where transfer is easier.

It is at this time that we will see the true mortality rate, although further waves of disease will probably follow over the next 18 - 24 months and these will have the effect of killing off a number of the weakened from earlier bouts of flu. The Government statistics vary greatly in the numbers estimated to potentialy fall victim to Swine Flu. It is a fact that they just do not have a clue. I know that they have already been checking preparedness for civil disruption and if it true about lack of hospital resource and reluctance of doctors to be closely involved, these will be needed.

Good advice is build up a 2 week stock of dried foods and tinned essentials in case you become house-bound Also get plenty of temperature / pain relief tablets etc. Purchasing a good thermometer is also advisable. This is not scare mongering but palin sensible precautionary advice.

As an aside a friend has had an interesting experience of dealing with GP and local NHS. His wife works in a school which feeds to a school that has been closed due to a large number of swine flu cases. She fell ill nearly 2 weeks ago with flu like symptoms. It has completely floored her and she was confined to bed for the first week. When it started when eventually getting through on the NHS Helpline she was advised to call her GP the next day. She did so and was just advised to treat it as a bug and told that antibiotics should be taken. These did no good. She needed to get a sick note after her first week and contacted the GP again. This time a nurse spoke to her and to cut a long story short yesterday, 12 days later, my friend had to go to the GP callect a swab kit and return the sample for testing. As an after thought she was also prescribed Tamiflu. Bit late I think! He was given nothing as he would not fit into a critical group...... mmmmmm looks like rationing has already started.

So not very encouraging from our mediacal services and nobody should hold up much hope of gaining some relief from Tamiflu if they or their family catch Swine Flu.

So best advice would seem have a stock of food, practice good personal hygene, stay away from events where many people are crowded together and if you catch it treat yourself and take complete rest. Do not rely on the NHS.

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