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OptimusSubPrime

Sterling V Euro

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Hi all,

To many of you this will seem like a very silly question, but i was wondering do any of you have any insight into the current trend that sees Sterling getting stronger against the Euro rate?

This time a year ago it was around 1.26, then we had the record lows around the turn of the year. It has been rising steadily over the last month or so. Is this set to continue for the foreseeable future?

The reason im asking is i transferred savings to euros last year when the rate was still about 1.26 (not for an investment thing, i moved it for other reasons in the republic of ireland...long story, but i dont need to have it there anymore). Its moving back toward that level now and im wondering should i transfer it back to sterling before i make a loss on it? I dont really need to use it until another 12 months or so, so if sterling was to depreciate against the euro in that time period itd be better leaving it there until then.

Sorry if this sounds silly, but any advice or theories would be greatly appreciated!

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Hi all,

To many of you this will seem like a very silly question, but i was wondering do any of you have any insight into the current trend that sees Sterling getting stronger against the Euro rate?

This time a year ago it was around 1.26, then we had the record lows around the turn of the year. It has been rising steadily over the last month or so. Is this set to continue for the foreseeable future?

The reason im asking is i transferred savings to euros last year when the rate was still about 1.26 (not for an investment thing, i moved it for other reasons in the republic of ireland...long story, but i dont need to have it there anymore). Its moving back toward that level now and im wondering should i transfer it back to sterling before i make a loss on it? I dont really need to use it until another 12 months or so, so if sterling was to depreciate against the euro in that time period itd be better leaving it there until then.

Sorry if this sounds silly, but any advice or theories would be greatly appreciated!

Unless you really know what you're doing, currency speculation is a good way to lose your shirt. Best to stick to the currency(s) that you will need to spend.

In my case I am holding 50/50 EUR/GBP, because, being retired and spending a lot of time in mainland Europe I spend both currencies and if I decide to buy a house it may well be in France, therefore I think it makes sense to hedge by holding both. I changed my GBP to EUR at 1.50, but I'm not interested in speculating by chopping and changing, rather I want to hedge against the collapse of one or the other. I'm more concerned about the future of GBP than EUR, but I could be wrong.

I keep almost everything on instant access, so could bail out pretty quickly if it looked like one or the other was in serious trouble, but currency swings can be brutal.

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Unless you really know what you're doing, currency speculation is a good way to lose your shirt. Best to stick to the currency(s) that you will need to spend.

In my case I am holding 50/50 EUR/GBP, because, being retired and spending a lot of time in mainland Europe I spend both currencies and if I decide to buy a house it may well be in France, therefore I think it makes sense to hedge by holding both. I changed my GBP to EUR at 1.50, but I'm not interested in speculating by chopping and changing, rather I want to hedge against the collapse of one or the other. I'm more concerned about the future of GBP than EUR, but I could be wrong.

I keep almost everything on instant access, so could bail out pretty quickly if it looked like one or the other was in serious trouble, but currency swings can be brutal.

in my case it wasnt for speculating on the two currencies, just that i had to move alot to euro due a a possibility of needing it to pay for something in ireland, which doesnt seem the case anymore and i was considering moving it back to sterling now before i lose money on the value of it. If i thought sterling was going to depreciate a bit in next twelve months id wait til then just.

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If you are not looking to spend a bulk of your savings in pounds any time soon, you would be only a prudent and wise man to diversify. As opposed to Bruce Banner, I also hold USD apart from EUR and GBP. I think the best thing would be to have lots of diversification, always. But that's reasonably possible if we are very, very wealthy (millions...). Have everything - land or real estate, stocks, bonds, cash, precious metals and split accross some currencies. Then you can sleep very well and enjoy your life. The portfolio woudl do just fine in every scenario. Obviously, bonds&cash/stock ratio must heavily depend on your age.

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The basic case for Sterling going higher is as follows. The UK economy is more flexible than Europe. As such it will begin to adjust faster to the new reality and growth rates will be higher. This will lead to higher interest rates and a flood of foreign money.

The basic case for Sterling going lower is as follows. The UK economy is in a hole as one of its main sources of income, financial services, is down for good. The economy is surviving based on the Government borrowing money from abroad through issuing Gilts. This is a short term measure which is just plugging the hole in the dam. Sonner or later the dam will burst, like Ireland, with a downgrading of our Gilts.

Personally I think that the recent rally of Sterling is running out of steam.

Edited by WATP

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It's not really the place for financial advice... If somebody knew the answer they wouldn't be posting it here.

All you will get is peoples guesses and anybody who takes that sort of advice to base their financial decisions on needs their bumps felt.

My guess....for what it's worth....( not much ) ..is if you have any profit now.... take it and at least that way you won't have the worry of constantly watching the markets. It would be like watching a 6000 mile horse race on TV , every fence putting your heart in your mouth.

If you can handle the stress and can lose the cash without worrying....then let it ride or cash it in now.

I do gamble on financial spread bets and my best " guess " is € gaining on $ and cable staying about 1.5

but that is not something you want to be basing your financial decisions on , the ramblings of a gambler on an internet forum.

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