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tomandlu

China - Power House Or House Of Cards?

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There's a new book by Martin Jaques called "When China Rules the World" - not a title to leave much to the imagination.

My real curiosity is that many regard China's full ascendancy as unlikely. For example, Will Hutton reviews the book in the Observer and says:

There is no prospect of China ruling the world. This is a country whose uncertainties of identity and economic frailties prevent it from ever projecting hegemonic hard and soft power. Its authoritarian institutions, far from being a source of strength, are a source of weakness. China is simultaneously big but poor, powerful but weak. And there, until wholesale political change occurs, it will stay, notwithstanding its considerable growth rates and economic achievement. Indeed, its current economic model, dependent on high exports and mountainous savings, is disintegrating, as both insiders and close observers recognise.

...

China cannot build its economy for ever on a savings rate of 40 per cent of GDP, or exports growing at such a rate that by 2020 they will constitute half of the world's merchandise exports. The model is cracking because it must. China must save less and consume more, as Jacques acknowledges.

But it will not make the transition without political change. The Chinese save because they do not trust the future. They know the Communist party's grip is unsustainable. The real story of the next generation will be of the west drawing ahead of a China facing political turmoil and increasing economic difficulties.

I'm curious and ambivalent - China seems to have loaned us a load of money to buy its stuff, so we are now in hock to them, which would seem to put them in the ascendant. Yet time and time again, I read that China is more vulnerable than the West.

What's going on? What is China doing that is so "wrong" that it cannot make the economic gains that one might expect from the current crisis? I understand that, like Germany, they are hit heavily by the drop in consumption, but I still fail to see how they can be net losers in the game.

Anyone want to explain what's going on? (for idiots, please).

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I'm curious and ambivalent - China seems to have loaned us a load of money to buy its stuff, so we are now in hock to them, which would seem to put them in the ascendant. Yet time and time again, I read that China is more vulnerable than the West.

What's going on? What is China doing that is so "wrong" that it cannot make the economic gains that one might expect from the current crisis? I understand that, like Germany, they are hit heavily by the drop in consumption, but I still fail to see how they can be net losers in the game.

Anyone want to explain what's going on? (for idiots, please).

China have loaned us nothing real, just pieces of paper with numbers on. We can tell them where to stick there bits of paper and there's sod all they can do about it.

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I think China is just too opaque to assess its real strength.

Ultimately I just think it has arrived too late in the game. Peak oil will do for it just as it will do for us.

(edit: to/too)

Edited by CokeSnortingTory

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Huge population, 1 child per couple policy creates a huge ticking timebomb, also there's a male/female imbalance ironically made worse by the 1 child per couple policy.

You also have issues surrounding water consumption especially in an industrialising economy.

China could dominate but it would be like a giant star it will burn fast and bright. Add into the mix that if China consumes as much as the US we will be screwed, there aren't enough resources.

Plus you are going to see massive political and social instability, I think wealth will create a desire to be free from political control.

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There's a new book by Martin Jaques called "When China Rules the World" - not a title to leave much to the imagination.

My real curiosity is that many regard China's full ascendancy as unlikely. For example, Will Hutton reviews the book in the Observer and says:

I'm curious and ambivalent - China seems to have loaned us a load of money to buy its stuff, so we are now in hock to them, which would seem to put them in the ascendant. Yet time and time again, I read that China is more vulnerable than the West.

What's going on? What is China doing that is so "wrong" that it cannot make the economic gains that one might expect from the current crisis? I understand that, like Germany, they are hit heavily by the drop in consumption, but I still fail to see how they can be net losers in the game.

Anyone want to explain what's going on? (for idiots, please).

Do you reallly believe a hard disk with - almost random 1 and 0s - in the basement of the Federal reserve puts China in the ascendancy?

A strong economy needs people who consume as well as produce. The problem is one lot have done the production and one lot have done the consumption. Both are fecked. The nation with the most natural and inherent wealth and resource will prevail. People, politics and geography will decide it.

Edited by Alan B'Stard MP

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house of cards

there isn't enough resources in the world to allow a country of 1.4 billion a 9% yearly growth rate

this baby is gonna collapse in on itself , and take the rest of the world with it

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