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Rinoa

Rightmove June -0.4%

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Guest absolutezero
Rightmove

Usually you lot say Rightmove are pants. Is that still the case? :)

Yes. Askiing prices prove nothing, as you well know.

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I like the bit:

The most startling omission from the RM report and commentary is the lack of explanation for the disparity between the average asking price of £226K and the recorded average selling price of circa £160K. This suggests, with some certainty, that delusional vendors are still asking for prices 40% above the true market valuation. Until this bizarre artificial gap 'crunches' the housing market will continue to stagante and deteriorate.

The recovery marches on! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Edited by Yorkshire Lad

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Yes. Askiing prices prove nothing, as you well know.

Not quite nothing.

It could be argued that the Rightmove prices rises during the spring were evidence of the dead cat bounce.

And now that it has run out of steam.

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Lots of references to the "equity rich" keeping the market going. It's almost as if the market is dependent on them. I wonder who will support house prices once this lot have shot their bolt.

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Yes. Askiing prices prove nothing, as you well know.

Well they do provide some sense of the sellers level of optimism. If you beleive all the figures, asking price rises have oupaced the actual selling price rise recently. Confidence now stalling? First stages of reality hitting home? Those would be my first guesses.

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Rightmove

Usually you lot say Rightmove are pants. Is that still the case? :)

Do you actually understand the difference between the Rightmove figures and those of the Haliwide?

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Avg Asking & Selling prices in St Albans since Oct 2007. Note the 6% decline in asking prices for detached houses and compare to the 23% decline in selling prices for detached houses.

ACapture.JPG

BCapture.JPG

post-13143-1245506926_thumb.jpg

post-13143-1245506935_thumb.jpg

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Not quite nothing.

It could be argued that the Rightmove prices rises during the spring were evidence of the dead cat bounce.

And now that it has run out of steam.

i note that most people on this site completely ridicule rightmove but i think it is a fundamentally important indicator for any bear when looked at correctly.

Every single asset bubble in history has only reached a bottom once the phsychology has completely erradicated bullishness and turnt everyone bearish.

Therefore roughly the difference between asking price (rightmove) and selling price (Halifax/NWide) is effectively a great indicator of sentiment and the difference currently still shows that the housing phsychology is still extremely bullish and has alot further to fall, Id wager very strongly that at some point over the next 3 to 4 years these price indexes will converge to near parity and it will give a very good indication when it does that the bubble has completely burst and that prices will have reached their bottom

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Rightmove

Usually you lot say Rightmove are pants. Is that still the case? :)

To be expected time for a breather. Still up 6% this year though (Who would have thought it half way through the year!)

Will finish 10% up by end of year!

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To be expected time for a breather. Still up 6% this year though (Who would have thought it half way through the year!)

Will finish 10% up by end of year!

:lol:

Thanks for injecting some humour..

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To be expected time for a breather. Still up 6% this year though (Who would have thought it half way through the year!)

Will finish 10% up by end of year!

I suppose we can't rule anything out anymore!

Who would have bet we could go 6 months into this year without a fall in average house prices.

Its pretty unlikely that prices will remain stable during the off-season (August09-May10), unless there is an increasing demand and a diminishing supply.

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Lots of references to the "equity rich" keeping the market going. It's almost as if the market is dependent on them. I wonder who will support house prices once this lot have shot their bolt.

Yes, fascinating concept.

You could get cognitive dissonance thinking about it.

The equity exists in the minds of sellers, as they think they should receive more than they paid.

This could of course work if everyone who currently owned a house conspired to play a housing based form of pass the parcel. I'll buy your overly inflated house, provided someone agrees to buy my overly inflated house and they in turn have received an overly inflated price for their house. It might even work if it was perfect circle and all the group did was simply swap homes. They could pretend they were worth whatever they liked.

Of course in reality it isn't a perfect circle, and the FTBer needs real money. The FTB now isn't playing ball an so the above imagined equity has vanished in a puff.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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i note that most people on this site completely ridicule rightmove but i think it is a fundamentally important indicator for any bear when looked at correctly.

Every single asset bubble in history has only reached a bottom once the phsychology has completely erradicated bullishness and turnt everyone bearish.

Therefore roughly the difference between asking price (rightmove) and selling price (Halifax/NWide) is effectively a great indicator of sentiment and the difference currently still shows that the housing phsychology is still extremely bullish and has alot further to fall, Id wager very strongly that at some point over the next 3 to 4 years these price indexes will converge to near parity and it will give a very good indication when it does that the bubble has completely burst and that prices will have reached their bottom

A very good point, well made.

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Bear of little brain confused again.

Came across this article dated with TODAYS date:

UK House Prices Fall as Vendors Ask for up to 40% Above Market Prices

Latest Property And Finance News

20 June 2009

UK house prices fall as vendors ask for up to 40% above market prices

UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. Estate agents now have

Obviously thought it referred to latest RM Report, after all why would someone on the 20 June 2009 write an article about the May report? But then saw that the June report was not on the RM website so MUST refer to a report 4 weeks out of date. ;) NO IT REFERS TO RM's JUNE FIGURES!! WHICH ARE DOWN ON MAY!!

[

b]UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. [/b]Estate agents now have on average seventy properties each on their books, and are only selling ten per month according to RICS...

However, this RICS contention is not supported by recorded data. With only 35,000 property sales a month, according to Land Registry, and the head count of agents being circa the same this would suggest that agents are in fact only selling on average one property per month.

...............The most startling omission from the RM report and commentary is the lack of explanation for the disparity between the average asking price of £226K and the recorded average selling price of circa £160K. This suggests, with some certainty, that delusional vendors are still asking for prices 40% above the true market valuation. Until this bizarre artificial gap 'crunches' the housing market will continue to stagante and deteriorate.

Miles Shipside of RM was at pains to encourage vendors to reduce their asking prices in line with current conditions; the suggestion was previously that a reduction of at least 25% from the peak of August 2007 was needed in order to complete a sale. this revealing suggestion has now been removed from the last two RM reports.............

Because he would now recommend 40% I assume.

So is the one sale a month to someone willing to pay 40% over the true value or is it the one seller willing to reduce 30%?

Edited by Sybil13

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OH MY GOD I HAVE BEEN MERGED WITH RINOA HHHHHEEELLLLLPPPPP :(

I THINK I AM LOSING MY MIND...........NO .......EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE OK.

BUY BUY BUY WHILST YOU CAN THIS IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY CAN'T WAIT TO GET BACK TO 2007 LEVELS OF LENDING

OBVIOUSLY IT IS THE VERY BEST THING THAT CAN HAPPEN FOR THE UK.......

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Miles Shipside of RM was at pains to encourage vendors to reduce their asking prices in line with current conditions; the suggestion was previously that a reduction of at least 25% from the peak of August 2007 was needed in order to complete a sale. this revealing suggestion has now been removed from the last two RM reports.............

Well Sybil, bearing in mind that even the worst fall from peak by Halifax is only 20%, it was a tad irresponsible for the big chief at Rightmove to suggest everyone sells for 5% less than that.

It's little wonder he hasn't repeated his error.

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Sig updated.

Rightmove still only measures seller aspirations as it only takes into account the initial price when it comes onto the market.

Infact, look at my sig. It only shows a 6.6% fall from peak, where everyone else is showing 15-20% from peak. I suppose this is countered by the fact the average discount is roughly 12% IIRC.

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Well Sybil, bearing in mind that even the worst fall from peak by Halifax is only 20%, it was a tad irresponsible for the big chief at Rightmove to suggest everyone sells for 5% less than that.

It's little wonder he hasn't repeated his error.

I know I am wasting my breath .....

Rinoa has argued this with me SO MANY times because the stats don't confirm 30% falls. But let me just state what I have stated previously despite how tedious this is, and Rinoa and Hamish will come back and tell me I am wrong.

Rinoa has said previously that the BOE / CML /RM in fact everyone is a "muppet" and I should listen to Hamish and himself. If I started listening to them whilst thinking that the others were "muppets" I would consider that the first signs of mental illness and get myself checked over by my doctor!!

In March 2009 CEBR said that even if approval figures doubled property would fall 35% , they said if approvals failed to double by the end of the summer property would fall 40% +.

They then withdrew that statement , obviously it was not getting them business, but approvals are as you know still 50% down on what is considered necessary to stabilise the market.

In March 2009 Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said:

Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date.

Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them

Rics have now changed their tune but based on what it is hard to see. The Firstrung article linked to this thread calls into Q the RICS figures on sales per agent, saying it is ONE per agent per month. I watch 50 + properties been watching them for months and months NOTHING has sold, not even one per month of my 50+!

Miles Shipside has been saying since January 2009 that sellers need to reduce prices 25% . He said in March 2009:

Rightmove Index: Raised Asking Price Doing More Harm than Good

The latest release of Rightmove's house price index shows asking prices on UK property rose 0.9% this month compared to last month.

The report admits that agent's are being forced to up initial advertising prices to win new instructions, amid the fierce competition for the few quality properties that are currently being put onto the market.

That makes the asking price rise, for me, more like bad news than good news. I understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery. ...........

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak. "

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

The Firstrung article linked to this thread said RM's average asking compared to average selling is showing a 40% decrease in property prices. I honestly cannot therefore see ANY reason for Rinoa to be saying that Miles Shipside GOT THIS WRONG IN JAN / FEB/ MARCH this year when he was saying sellers need to reduce 25%.

Last week we had it confirmed that :

Realistic Valuations Are Breaking Chains

Rinoa will know that the Nationwide / Halifax approval figures are based on offers prior to valuation.

Yet in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary Rinoa and McTavish continue their tiresome baiting of bears for amusement! I think it is so sad they have not get anything better to do with their lives. I know the same could be said for me, but I do actually believe in what I am doing. I am not on here for a bit of amusement, I post on here in the hope of being able to offer even just one bear of little brain some pointers with regards what is ACTUALLY happening in the property market when you strip away the spin , the ramping and the vested interests! I may not do that as effectively as others more able on this website but I DON'T come here every day to taunt bulls, but to try to do something supportive of my belief , my hope that the market will stabilise at sustainable levels not those that are skewed towards bullish self interest.

Recent figures from the people Rinoa calls the "muppets" and believes I should dismiss in favour of what he has to say.

First-time buyers who want to get on the housing ladder have seen the number of mortgages available to those without a large deposit slump by 97% over the last two and a half years, according to new research released today....

Rates have also started rising after a year of falls. Yesterday, a number of big lenders put up the cost of their fixed-rate mortgages and experts suggest other lenders will follow suit.

First-time buyers are already paying a high price for their borrowing – in January 2007, the base rate stood at 5% and the average interest rate on a 90% home loan was 6.2%. Today, the average rate on a first-time buyer loan stands at 6.23%, 5.73% above bank base rate.

Ray Boulger, of mortgage broker John Charcol, said the increase in price had been driven by a lack of competition and by new rules under which lenders have to set aside more capital to cover high loan-to-value mortgages. "The cost to the lender of making one 90% LTV loan available can be four or five times the cost of offering a mortgage at 60% LTV," he said. "We're in a situation where the more lending a lender does at 90% the less lending they are able to do overall."

Boulger said tightened lending criteria meant first-time buyers applying for a large loan had a two-in-three chance of being rejected, with lenders only interested in "squeaky clean" borrowers with perfect credit records.

Although figures this week from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed a rise in new borrowers in April, numbers remain low by historic standards and experts say the market cannot recover until first-time buyers can find loans.

No 'significant recovery' in house prices as lending falls, says CML

House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month.

It said mortgage numbers fell a further 2 per cent in May, following a decline of 9 per cent the previous month.

It brings gross mortgage lending to just £10.3 billion, the second lowest level since the CML began its current series in 2000 and 58 per cent lower than this time last year.

At the same time, the Bank of England said in its Trends in Lending report that mortgage lending fell from £8.8 billion in April to £8.6 billion in May.

The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a historic low of 0.5 per cent.

Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, said it suggests that the various measures taken by the Bank of England and the government to boost bank lending have yet to have a major impact.

"This is worrying for recovery prospects," he said.

David Hollingworth, of mortgage brokers London & Country, said: "Although there have been more encouraging signs of buyers returning to the market these subdued lending figures act as a stark reminder that mortgage availability remains restricted.

And Nick Hopkinson, of preropty recovery specialist Property Portfolio Rescue, said: "The dire lending figures demonstrate what a Herculean task it is to get a mortgage at the moment. Even where buyers qualify with a huge deposit and perfect credit rating, rising unemployment and consumer concerns about taking on more debt mean we will not see any recovery in house sales this year."

I could just go on and on , I will leave it up to you to decide who is the muppet here. ;)

Edited by Sybil13

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I could just go on and on , I will leave it up to you to decide who is the muppet here. ;)

Yep, no use getting overheated over Rinoa, McTavo et al. We know who the real delusional losers are and it ain't us ;)

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