Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Darxide

Have We Really Learnt Nothing?

Recommended Posts

It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

EA's proudly claiming the bottom has been reached, and we're now heading back to 'normal'.

I'm even hearing some reports of banks offering high ratio mortgages again!

Even at work, people are talking about how "now is the time to buy", or "I won't be considering offers below my asking price, I'll just wait a few months and get what I want"....

Are we so obsessed with money, that we don't care that we're only setting ourselfs up for another almighty fall?

What do people think caused this crisis in the first place?

Do they really think that the bubble was 'normal'?

And have we as a nation really learnt nothing from this crisis?

Thoughts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

EA's proudly claiming the bottom has been reached, and we're now heading back to 'normal'.

I'm even hearing some reports of banks offering high ratio mortgages again!

Even at work, people are talking about how "now is the time to buy", or "I won't be considering offers below my asking price, I'll just wait a few months and get what I want"....

Are we so obsessed with money, that we don't care that we're only setting ourselfs up for another almighty fall?

What do people think caused this crisis in the first place?

Do they really think that the bubble was 'normal'?

And have we as a nation really learnt nothing from this crisis?

Thoughts?

Big multiples are really worrying, especially as inflation and rates are like to really kick off next year. On the other hand I can see why peple with a large deposit who are borrowing sensibly might want to buy as they are worried about the long term future of sterling, in spite of the recent recovery against the $.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

EA's proudly claiming the bottom has been reached, and we're now heading back to 'normal'.

I'm even hearing some reports of banks offering high ratio mortgages again!

Even at work, people are talking about how "now is the time to buy", or "I won't be considering offers below my asking price, I'll just wait a few months and get what I want"....

Are we so obsessed with money, that we don't care that we're only setting ourselfs up for another almighty fall?

What do people think caused this crisis in the first place?

Do they really think that the bubble was 'normal'?

And have we as a nation really learnt nothing from this crisis?

Thoughts?

Just sane fiscal policy.

It cant be that far away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've found life to be much more tolerable ever since I work from a basic assumption that people are stupid and i hate them. Evidence backs me up on an hourly basis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you click my signature "WAKE UP!" you'll see its a link to a music video of The Matrix.

At one point the song, by Rage Against The Machine, begs "What have I got to do to wake you up?" (from the lies and deception being perpetrated by the vested interests) and ends by the lead singer repeatedly screaming Wake Up! (hence the title).

HPCers saw through the bull's sh1t. This website became a red pill to many, pulling from their eyes the wool of property-propoganda that has wrought such disaster on our country.

Edited by Dave Spart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

EA's proudly claiming the bottom has been reached, and we're now heading back to 'normal'.

And have we as a nation really learnt nothing from this crisis?

Thoughts?

Mostly not yet. But just give it time; give it time...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

...Try Harder - it's easy.

The people talking the market up are those that need to talk the market up.

As Dave Spart says - "WAKE UP!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The low low rates give me that eerie feeling that I got in 2004 when it seemed as if money was growing on trees. The unpalatable truth is being swept under the carpet in an orchestrated onslaught of propaganda and spin. If it seems too good to be true, it usually is too good to be true. You can't keep on printing money and lending it out at low rates indefinitely. Eventually the debt must be repaid. Japan has learnt that lesson well.

What's actually happening is that the cost of risk is being reduced in order to pay for the higher priced risk from the past. Ultimately though, a point is reached where even if risk/burden is high and cost is next to nothing, the burden must still be borne for 2 or 3 decades. The demand for money has fallen so low, in line with the real cost of servicing the debt that they've had to drop rates to try and stimulate the demand again.

As an analogy, it's like increasing the load in a backpack and coping with it by taking smaller steps. The process can continue with the wearer taking smaller and smaller steps but taking longer and longer to reach his destination. If the wearer isn't careful, he might overload his backpack and collapse under the weight. This is what is happening to the economy as we speak.

This is what people fail to realise when they look at the cost of borrowing. They also fail to notice how wages are falling in real terms (and have been for quite some time) and well paid, secure employment is becoming increasingly hard to come by.

Edited by Von Moses

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eventually the debt must be repaid. Japan has learnt that lesson well.

However the gameplan is that it's not us that pay it back it will be those nice people in the future who pick up the bill, but by then it won't be so big because of growth.

It's fool proof.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Parry
Big multiples are really worrying, especially as inflation and rates are like to really kick off next year. On the other hand I can see why peple with a large deposit who are borrowing sensibly might want to buy as they are worried about the long term future of sterling, in spite of the recent recovery against the $.

Damn good post. That's how I see it. But sooner or later that STR/savings cash runs out. Without lending returning to the 2007 levels can't see this lasting very long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've found life to be much more tolerable ever since I work from a basic assumption that people are stupid .......

This is largely a foolproof plan up to here. Not sure I agree with part B of your plan, but each to their own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have We Really Learnt Nothing?, What will it take?

I'm sure that many people have learnt, surer still I am of the number who will yet learn over the coming years.

For many HPI was like a drug that took them to an alternative reality of consumer spending chock full of material things they couldn't otherwise have had. Now it's over some don't like the true reality so are keen on returning to the alternative reality (which works when enough people believe that reality to be true) hence the recent ramping and VI dogma.

Once the punitive interest rates, debt burden and taxes really kick in it'll be like slowly waking up on a wet tiled floor with a bad hang over and bangin' headache. A moment of epiphany for quite a few!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the conversation I just had with my taxi driver was anything to go by, there are many out there who not only feel there are no lessons to be learnt but they want what they saw as 'normal service' resumed immediately.

What this should tell you is never underestimate the stupidity and pig-ignorance of the general public. Some people's narrow mindedness and greed is so strong it overwhelms their capacity to see the big picture and to diagnose and accept what went wrong. Most people in the UK seem blissfully unaware of the tax tsunami about to be engulf them.

I can almost understand where estate agents get their sociopathic motivations, but my morals tell me not to join them on the Dark Side.

Edited by Dave Spart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've found life to be much more tolerable ever since I work from a basic assumption that people are stupid and i hate them. Evidence backs me up on an hourly basis.

Sadly true....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest KingCharles1st
Big multiples are really worrying, especially as inflation and rates are like to really kick off next year. On the other hand I can see why peple with a large deposit who are borrowing sensibly might want to buy as they are worried about the long term future of sterling, in spite of the recent recovery against the $.

Inflation AND resets- :rolleyes:

And- there is no more money in any pots, anywhere. Well, rEAL money that is... :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pioneer31

I ask myself why people still fall for Nigerian scams, pyramid schemes (network marketing), chain letters etc...........because for the most part, people believe what they WANT to believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Knowing that its stupid and based on nothing, still didnt stop us being effected by everyone else believing.

Thats the lesson Ive learnt from the last 8 years of HPI.

Yep, sadly true.

"The market can stay irrational for a lot longer than you can stay solvent" (JMK) :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Steve Cook
It's hard to ignore the recent wave of 'optimism' regarding the housing market.

EA's proudly claiming the bottom has been reached, and we're now heading back to 'normal'.

I'm even hearing some reports of banks offering high ratio mortgages again!

Even at work, people are talking about how "now is the time to buy", or "I won't be considering offers below my asking price, I'll just wait a few months and get what I want"....

Are we so obsessed with money, that we don't care that we're only setting ourselfs up for another almighty fall?

What do people think caused this crisis in the first place?

Do they really think that the bubble was 'normal'?

And have we as a nation really learnt nothing from this crisis?

Thoughts?

The lessons people "learn" are based on what is good for them at a given point in time.

In other words, people are motivated by short-term optimal outcomes based on analyses that have access to limited information rather than long-term maximal ones based on analyses that have access to unlimited information.

Obviously, the strategy outlined above will tend to move from short-term optimal to long-term maximal as a function of increased intelligence/information. But, even then, only to a limited degree. Even if someone is intelligent and knowledgeable enough to know that a given market is in a bubble, unless they are able to predict that the bubble will collapse tomorrow, it still makes sense to invest in it, just so long as they sell at the peak.

It's why we are in the mess we are in.

Edited by Steve Cook

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Parry
The lessons people "learn" are based on what is good for them at a given point in time.

In other words, people are motivated by short term optimal outcomes rather than long term maximal ones.

It's why we are in the mess we are in.

http://smoothiecast.co.uk/

Grapezilla

Need a pick up, this will have you buzzing all day long!

* 2 Handfuls of Fairtrade green grapes

* 2 Handfuls of Fairtrade red grapes

* 250ml Grape juice

* Juice of half a small Fairtrade lemon

* 3 Scoops of frozen yoghurt

Add all ingredients to your smoothie maker and you've got one ready to drink sugar rush!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I ask myself why people still fall for Nigerian scams, pyramid schemes (network marketing), chain letters etc...........because for the most part, people believe what they WANT to believe.

The scams you mention aren't institutionalised, the real estate 'market' scam is

The reason we can never get off the merry go round with property, is because the 'market' externalises costs to those 'not involved' (it inflicts costs on people) and creates a prisoner's dillemma

Edited by Stars

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   296 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.