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On 19/09/2018 at 08:53, Sausage said:

+1 I'd like to know too!

 

On 10/09/2018 at 00:51, warrior88 said:

What does this mean? (please pardon my financial ignorance). 50 year gilt yeild is less than 30 years - what are the implications?

 

The 50-year below the 30-year doesn't mean much. It's saying growth is expected to be lower from 2050 to 2070.

When the 10-year is yielding less than the 1-year or 2-year does it get interesting.

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On 02/05/2019 at 17:21, kzb said:

I think it means jobs depend on house prices and not the other way round.

Not unreasonable with all the jobs depending on customers borrowing money.

I think your misunderstanding is that you assume that the event visible in the data first must be the cause (house price change), and the one appearing later must be the effect (employment statistics). However, this isn't always the case.

There are lots of counter examples to this, like the Baltic Dry Index (effectively the cost of shipping goods) - this famously leads changes in economic activity by some time but it doesn't cause the changes in economic activity - it is an effect of the change in economic activity which has not yet appeared in the data.

Consider the announcement of the closure of the of the Honda factory. I think we can agree that this will likely affect both house prices and job statistics. However, I would not be at all surprised if the house prices dropped first, before the redundancies actually occur and the actual job market spikes down. My guess is this also happens on a micro scale throughout the country - sales staff notice the shop is quiet and hold off on that new house, long before any job losses occur.

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On 19/05/2019 at 17:27, Up the spout said:

When the 10-year is yielding less than the 1-year or 2-year does it get interesting.

This has been happening on and off for a while now and each time the yield curve inverts we get the same articles on zerohedge and other hype websites saying it proves the imminent crash.

Of course, they'll be correct coincidentally at some point, having predicted 294 of the last 1 crashes.

The fact is that we're in a low yield world where central bank policy has skewed everything. Anomalies now seem to be regular. Who knows what this stuff means anymore.

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The 70s saw massive changes in oil prices 1970 = $3.50 1980 = $35. Neoliberals love to try blame the run-away inflation on Unions and Labour power but it was clearly the OPEC embargo and Iran crisis which pushed oil price up 1000%.
We also saw the rise of financialisation where Capital demands it's pound of flesh..they created a whole new layer of wealth in finance which far out-stripped the productive economy...sound familiar?

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On ‎07‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 16:00, StuartMc said:

I think your misunderstanding is that you assume that the event visible in the data first must be the cause (house price change), and the one appearing later must be the effect (employment statistics). However, this isn't always the case.

There are lots of counter examples to this, like the Baltic Dry Index (effectively the cost of shipping goods) - this famously leads changes in economic activity by some time but it doesn't cause the changes in economic activity - it is an effect of the change in economic activity which has not yet appeared in the data.

Consider the announcement of the closure of the of the Honda factory. I think we can agree that this will likely affect both house prices and job statistics. However, I would not be at all surprised if the house prices dropped first, before the redundancies actually occur and the actual job market spikes down. My guess is this also happens on a micro scale throughout the country - sales staff notice the shop is quiet and hold off on that new house, long before any job losses occur.

Yeh I suppose I accept this.  You shouldn't assume correlation is the same as causation.

On the sentence I have highlighted, nothing affects house prices or the job statistics.

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On 09/06/2019 at 03:14, Millaise said:

productivity-vs-wages-2012.png

https://www.futurist.com/2012/05/15/the-mission-reconnect-wages-and-productivity-growth/

Lots of metrics started to diverge from their long-term trends in the 1970s. Was it trickle-down economics; the repeal of Breton-Woods; the diminution of Glass-Steagal? Or something else? 

"Globalisation means that you are competing with a billion people in India for your job. And they are hungry."

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On 09/06/2019 at 00:14, Millaise said:

productivity-vs-wages-2012.png

https://www.futurist.com/2012/05/15/the-mission-reconnect-wages-and-productivity-growth/

Lots of metrics started to diverge from their long-term trends in the 1970s. Was it trickle-down economics; the repeal of Breton-Woods; the diminution of Glass-Steagal? Or something else? 

The bit where the lines start to diverge in the 70's is when the the gold standard was dropped so they could and print, print, print money from thin air.

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On 09/06/2019 at 01:14, Millaise said:

productivity-vs-wages-2012.png

https://www.futurist.com/2012/05/15/the-mission-reconnect-wages-and-productivity-growth/

Lots of metrics started to diverge from their long-term trends in the 1970s. Was it trickle-down economics; the repeal of Breton-Woods; the diminution of Glass-Steagal? Or something else? 

I think we might (I am guessing) learn something from French peasants of 230 years ago. They did not demand more wages, but that things were cheaper. The material progress is a product of the productivity, which means things are cheaper. It is not he banks that make the average person richer, but the engineer and scientist.

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On 11/06/2020 at 23:13, Killer Bunny said:

Inflation linked Treasuries in relation to fixed interest treasuries 

clearly if ratio rising the mkt expects inflation 

But that ratio has clearly risen sharply at other points in the last decade, so why is now different, from the perspective of the market's expectations?

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