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On 23/01/2018 at 12:10 PM, ElPapasito said:

2 out of 3 times the delinquency rate has spiked like current spike it presaged a recession, but in 1995/96 it didn't so not reliable indicator of recession 2018.

A factor to consider, to explain the lack of recession on the occasion you mention, is the 'speed' of the rise in delinquencies?  That mid-90's rise was more gradual and spread over nearly 3 years.  The other, and most recent, rises are genuinely much more of a 'spike' in nature.

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Ah well, the higher cost of delivering post is a small price to pay, as when the UK sold Royal Mail it managed to raise enough to offset it's pension liabilities for the taxpayer :huh: oh.

Or maybe mail worker's wages soon followed a similar profile to that graph? no :rolleyes:.

But I'm sure it was all worth while (for some) ;) and the 'competition' will eventually yield some bennefit.
Hmm (*strokes chin thoughtfully*).

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Just noticed, someone has updated the Nationwide average house prices adjusted for inflation figures but not the graph since 2016:

image.png.4905fee5d714c9879be5cee15cbb5af7.png

 

Period Covered
House Price
"Real" House Price
Trend in "Real" House Prices
2018 Q1 £211,792 £211,792 £235,571
 
2017 Q4 £211,433 £212,559 £234,045
2017 Q3 £211,672 £214,507 £232,529
2017 Q2 £209,971 £214,900 £231,022
2017 Q1 £206,665 £214,519 £229,525

 

 

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On ‎06‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 09:54, Up the spout said:

erwt-1.gif

That's odd isn't it.

House prices LEAD employment figures and not the other way round !

It's almost as though it's not a free market, or maybe that the figures are fiddled.

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On 24/04/2019 at 12:15, kzb said:

That's odd isn't it.

House prices LEAD employment figures and not the other way round !

It's almost as though it's not a free market, or maybe that the figures are fiddled.

Or it could be that when things start to look tough economically, people can cancel a visit to the Estate Agent quicker than jobs get lost in significant numbers?

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1 minute ago, StuartMc said:

Or it could be that when things start to look tough economically, people can cancel a visit to the Estate Agent quicker than jobs get lost in significant numbers?

I think it means jobs depend on house prices and not the other way round.

Not unreasonable with all the jobs depending on customers borrowing money.

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