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RBS Economics ‏@RBS_Economics 22m22 minutes ago

From 25% in 1996 to 100% now. How far the average deposit for a house vs. a first time buyer's income has changed.


That doesnt even illustrate the full obscenity of the situation because it only monitors the incomes of those able to buy and ignore's those now frozen out from ownership who would have been able to buy in '96.

For example, the average FTB wage in 1996 is shown on the graph as about £19,000 against a 1996 national average salary for all earners of £14,000...ie a FTB only needed a salary 40% higher than the average. The 2014 figure shown on the graph is about £50,000, ie a FTB now needs a salary 100% higher than the national average salary of £25,000.

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The last two US recessions have severely damaged the growth rate in global trade. In each case, the trend growth rate of trade since 1991 (which is when the CPB World Trade Monitor data begins) was effectively cut by at least a percent. Emerging markets have helped to keep global trade afloat especially relative to developed markets, however, even in emerging markets we have seen a step down in the growth rate of trade.

In each of the charts, we index import or export data at 100 starting on 1/31/1991. We then plot growth trend lines as an easy way of identifying a pick up or slow down in trade. For example, world imports grew at growth rate slightly above 7% from 1991 to 2000. By the end of the technology stock bust, trend growth had fallen to about 6%. World imports again picked up steam starting in 2003 and nearly reached a 7% growth rate before the global financial crisis. Since the financial crisis, however, trend growth since 1991 has fallen to nearly 5%. The trajectory in world exports is nearly identical to that of world imports.

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The link below is to a recent article (with charts) refreshing the history and consequences of QE in Japan and comments on their 2% inflation target.


The Bank of Japan has employed QE programs since March of 2001 (in February of 2001, it still claimed that “QE will be ineffective” – it was right then, for the last time).


Edited by billybong
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Bit weird. Had a look at the fund prospectus:


So what does that mean? When INSAX underperforms the broader index, those companies where the insiders are buying stock underperform?

Theres no such thing as "smart money" only hindsight bias.

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Two interesting and upto date charts of petrol prices v crude oil prices with one going back to 1 January 2009 - showing the current disparity between petrol prices relative to the oil price compared to any time since 2009.

Edited by billybong
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Outside London and SE, rent has pretty much flat-lined since 2008. One could surmise that foreign money is sucking up all of the excess property in London and SE and it is not being rented out.


Source: http://downloads2.belvoirlettings.com/marketing/BelvoirRentalIndexSeptember15Q32015Final.pdf

Edited by Eddie_George
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^ very interesting.

To start with from that it looks like for the next 10 years more and more FtBers in the age range 30-40 are at risk of being disappointed. Maybe it partly explains the extra taxes etc on BtLers - maybe being introduced to help to free up BtL type properties.

Edited by billybong
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