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Sometimes, they do ring a bell

The remaining signals (record high on a weekly closing basis, fewer than 27% bears, Shiller P/E greater than 18, fewer than 60% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average), are shown below. What’s interesting about these warnings is how closely they identified the precise market peak of each cycle. Internal divergences have to be fairly extensive for the S&P 500 to register a fresh overvalued, overbullish new high with more than 40% of its component stocks already falling – it’s evidently a rare indication of a last hurrah. The 1972 warning occurred on November 17, 1972, only 7 weeks and less than 4% from the final high before the market lost half its value. The 2000 warning occurred the week of March 24, 2000, marking the exact weekly high of that bull run. The 2007 instance spanned two consecutive weekly closing highs: October 5 and October 12. The final daily high of the S&P 500 was October 9 - right in between. The most recent warning was the week ended July 17, 2015.

wmc150727c.png

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150727.htm

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GDP aggregates, the G7 rebased 2008. The UK had fallen to last place (barring Italy) by the general election of May 2010 but exited in May 2015 in third place having achieved growth parity with the US and Canada in those five years and the fastest growth in Europe.

Basically we didn't do austerity (except in the la la land of the BBC question time audience), we borrowed the growth. First place...some austerity. Just got to pay back the doubling of public sector debt.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/figure5_tcm77-402581.png

Edited by crashmonitor
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GDP aggregates, the G7 rebased 2008. The UK had fallen to last place (barring Italy) by the general election of May 2010 but exited in May 2015 in third place having achieved growth parity with the US and Canada in those five years and the fastest growth in Europe.

Basically we didn't do austerity (except in the la la land of the BBC question time audience), we borrowed the growth. First place...some austerity. Just got to pay back the doubling of public sector debt.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/figure5_tcm77-402581.png

...aaaaaaanddd now adjust it for population :D

I mean, Italy looks screwed there, but half the working age italian population seems to have relocated to Cambridge. I doubt per capita is any worse than the UK.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dated November 2014 (Bloomberg chart)

ia.tqzP1acJ0.jpg

Output data is in thousand barrels per day.

^ It doesn't give the full picture on global oil output/production but even so it's a quite interesting chart.

---------------------------------

Then chart below upto July 2015

OPEC-125.jpg

Opec chart from link below


http://

peakoilbarrel.com/opec-crude-oil-production-charts/

Then

B0FGw_hCQAE4fZg.jpg

Edited by billybong
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16 July 2015

http://

www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jul/16/tenants-in-england-spend-half-their-pay-on-rent

Among 16- to 24-year-olds – some of whom face losing access to housing benefit under government plans to scrap it for under-21s – rents made up a massive 88% of incomes without the state payments and 81% once it was included.

The sentence quoted is for a different (younger) and narrower age range than the US charts but with a slight overlap - even so the percentage of income is massive (this isn't a post about housing benefit).

Edited by billybong
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  • 4 weeks later...

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