Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Post Your Favourite Charts Here


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

That's a great website.

What's this about?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TRESEGGBM052N?cid=32280

Hmmm, be interesting to correlate this with house prices and net poopulation change:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GBRPERMITAISMEI?cid=32280

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard
Link to post
Share on other sites

Production of Total Industry in the United Kingdom (GBRPROINDMISMEI) by St Louise Fed.

We are now back to 1990s level...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GBRPROINDMISMEI?cid=32280

(Recovering is underway, of course!!...)

Looking at that graph you can see the influence of Land Price Bubbles to divert effort and resource away from industry. See the flatlining in the early 70s, late 80s and 00's and the inevitable drops after the bubbles burst.

Link to post
Share on other sites

More funding - this is from the "Bond Vigilantes" over at M&G, though a superficial reading of the commentary suggests that they misspelled "Delusional Property Ramper" using all the wrong letters in all the wrong order to produce the words "Bond Vigilantes"

Bond%2Bvigilantes%2Bmy%2Brse.png

The "Bond Vigilantes" are making out that they can't understand why if their metrics for lender funding are all getting cheaper mortgages are still getting pricier.

As I pointed out in my thread Fight The Power they are (willfully?) ignoring the fact that the reason for the increased mortgage rates is the increase in the lenders' funding costs which is caused by their return to old-school balance sheet funding, customer deposits, which is pricier than "hot money" from the wholesale funding market or issuing corporate debt. I'd be grateful if someone would check out the thread and give it a bump if they think it deserves it. You never know when a lazy journo may trawl through looking for pre-packaged copy.

If we want to dip deep into paranoia, you might consider that if you were making a living selling fixed interest products that weren't subsidised you'd indulge in some special pleading against the mortgage lenders. Who knows?

(Thread ramping, what am I thinking?)

Link to post
Share on other sites

There's been a huge boom from the 1980's.

Does it look like the house price graph?

Wouldn't those be nominals. With 4% inflation and 4% GDP growth you'd expect the nominal money price for a "share" of the economy's wealth to go up pretty fiercely over 20 years, maybe by a factor of 4 or 5? It does look like there are some pretty healthy bubbles on top of the trend. Surprise, surprise! ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Further to earlier post about the trends in the Bank of England Bankstats data - looking at the fixes according to term...

Fix%2Byour%2Bzombies.png

Google "quantitative easing july 2011", then google "quantitative easing september 2011".

Coincidence?

I checked this data to check my theory.

I still think that the mortgage lenders' treasury departments were not cut off from the hot money in 2009 and 2010 - that IMO is why mortgage rates started falling in this period.

Once the government eliminates credit risk by stepping up behind the balance sheets of the CML lenders and forex moves in your favour if you're trying to make a return on investors deposits with nominals in euros, why not go back to the UK bubble?

With base rates at 0.5% and loans to UK banks to fund their UK mortgages still showing good yield, what else could a central bank do to discourage hot money other than threaten to inflate the investors' gains away?

Thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites

government-debt.png

Chart suspiciously starts rising after Nixon closes the gold window ... hmmm ...

As far as my understanding goes, in the 1970s the US government and US banks could no long continue to create money because the US dollar was linked to gold and they could not greatly increase their supply of the stuff.

As a result we would have seen the US Dollar start to increase in value, something US economists were against ideologically. A similar thing happended in the UK during the late Victorian period, but a strong Pound was seen as beneficial to the economy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is quite interesting too.

Incomes by age over the generations. The lines are stacked on top of one another showing people are getting better off at equivalent ages down the years.

Best generation appears to be the 1955-1964 one - but we'll see if that lasts into retirement. And of course, we'll see if the young today make any progress as we slog our way through the (post?) financial crisis years.

http://video.ft.com/...nxed-generation

vrzvo5.jpg

The salaries of people in their twenties has flat lined for a decade and for the first time fallen below those of people in their sixties.

2m6q13b.jpg

Worthy of a thread on its own.

Link to post
Share on other sites

As far as my understanding goes, in the 1970s the US government and US banks could no long continue to create money because the US dollar was linked to gold and they could not greatly increase their supply of the stuff.

As a result we would have seen the US Dollar start to increase in value, something US economists were against ideologically. A similar thing happended in the UK during the late Victorian period, but a strong Pound was seen as beneficial to the economy.

USD is the global currency.

So all that chart is really showing is the growth in the emerging markets following the abandonment of capital contols/WTO rise as Russia, China, and the other BRICS entered the global economy. Without more dollars how could that have come about? Certainly not with a gold 'standard' - one reason why all prior attempts at gold standards fall apart.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the difference between a 'real' bubble and just an exponential series, whether any real world constraints exist to constrain its march onwards?

Fiat, a human construct, has no real world constraints. The constraining factor is the distribution and real world value of debts on those burdened by them....but then they can be quite easily be re-distributed by defaults, taxation and inflation. And if the numbers on the notes get unwieldy, just knock a zero off. Happened before.

Been thinking about this a lot. IMO, "money" is a deeper emergent property of the relationship between economic actors and the means of production than bankers and Bankers would have us believe. If Banker and bankers make bank notes/deposits meaningless then people switch other forms of "money"; hence all the goldbugs on HPC. The crucial idea is that money is whatever will be accepted as a unit of account, means of exchange and store of value. Hence there is good money and bad money. "Fiat money" is just a system imposed on the great morass of humanity by governments but ultimately saying "this is money" doesn't make it money. Money is whatever works as money. In science we call this an operational definition, it is often a very powerful way of establishing meaning in an unambiguous and consistent way. Or to put it in other words, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it is a duck. If it inflates like buggery and is subject to all manner of unanticipated controls, it isn't a duck.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.