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The following chart of the natgas nymex contract is monthly (so pretty crude) which shows a wedge formation following the long decline since Q408:

natgasnymexcontract0911.gif

This is an interesting enough setup of its own accord, but i was scratching my head thinking where had i seen this before (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=98606&view=findpost&p=1761541).......

updated:

pdwedgeQ0109.gif

pd never looked back thereafter, we shall see what happens with natgas

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Three views on the present action in Silver:

Bull Case:

Morris Hubbartt sees that 'the only way is up' as silver is in a tight wedge and needs to breakout:

silver_weekly.gif

(Source - http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt091611.html)

The first thing i notice about this chart is the log scale; having charted silver myself with both linear and log scale, i tend to find that the shorter term set-ups are better looked at with a linear scale. Hence, using a linear scale, the wedge looks broken, with a secondary support line crossing somewhere around $37-38

Bear Case

Clive Maund goes nuclear with tales of a silver meltdown:

silverytd180911.gif

(Source - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30488.html)

One thing i would say about clives silver analysis is that he is the 'boy who cried bear' before (see: http://www.24knews.com/viewtopic.php?p=1325#p1325). Needless to say we all make wrong calls, but he does tend to go a bit ott where the white metal is concerned. Also, looking at the chart, there is a definite case for the first support, but the 2nd support around $20; i think it is highly unlikely ag will fall this far.

(Pseudo) Neutral Case:

OK, my view, which is best described as a 'pseudo' neutral view because i have held the view that ag will hit $50 this xmas since May (after the price collapsed). However, in the meantime I see a directionless silver which will break out of Morris's wedge through sheer apathy without rally picking up a bid till October. (see blog for previous charts)

PS - Natgas long-term wedge on the weekly chart looks on the verge of a breakdown - be careful!

edit - toned down for the goldbashers + fixed links

late edit - added chart below:

agpossoctlow11.gif

i have consulted my crystal balls and they tell me silver looks a tasty treat at $35

Edited by p.p.
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.../....

late edit - added chart below:

agpossoctlow11.gif

i have consulted my crystal balls and they tell me silver looks a tasty treat at $35

UPDATE:

agupdatesept11.gif

not much change really - just got into the 'zone' a bit quicker than expected, hence the zone is now a wee bit bigger

I have added the 'slope of hope' line, because silver needs to clear this to see blue skies again

The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

agresturnedsupport0911.gif

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UPDATE:

.../....

The following chart shows the crucial resistance turned support line which features in the above chart:

agresturnedsupport0911.gif

Well, the words knife and butter spring to mind. A nod to the likes of RK and Clive Maund who predicted it closest to the mark; i thought it would gain support somewhere above $31 through to $34 ('the zone') but with it going down to $26, the big bold bears win the day.

So with many of the technical supports broken, the logical next area around $23 (RK & CM said $20ish iirc), bulls should hope for it to break through the 'slope of hope' first

silveroct11.gif

With Gold still 'technically' holding its bull pattern, a contrast between the two metals is apparent, which suggests one of two things: gold has further to fall or the G:S Ratio is not going down anytime soon - i.e. it will increase!

edit - miscalc

Edited by p.p.
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stick with this - you don't really get the fireworks until 2011

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-rise-hft-machine-visual-confirmation-how-skynet-broke-stock-market-us-downgrade-day

Zero Hedge has not been focusing much on the topic of our broken equity markets recently because if by now, following over three years of coverage, someone is not aware just how fragmented, manipulated and largely broken the market truly is, they never will. Yet every now and then it worth reminding readers who may have stumbled on this blog recently, just how bad things are in graphic format. Our friends at Nanex, who are by far the best forensic analysts of everything that is busted with the US stock market, have completed a masterpiece analysis showing the churning (packet traffic) in the various fragmented US market venues, from the NYSE to the Nasdaq to BATS and so forth, on a daily basis beginning in January 2007 and continuing through today. While the "rise of the HFT machine" over the past 5 years, following the adoption of Reg NMS, will hardly be a surprise to most, what is stunning is the first animated confirmation of the market terminally breaking on August 5, 2011, the day the US was downgraded

DxWer.gif

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default#List_of_sovereign_debt_defaults

The following list includes actual sovereign defaults and debt restructuring of independent countries from 1300 till 2008:[15]

Africa

Algeria (1991)

Angola (1976,[16] 1985, 1992-2002[16])

Cameroon (2004)[16]

Central African Republic (1981, 1983)

Congo (Kinshasa) (1979)[16]

Cote d'Ivoire (1983, 2000)

Gabon (1999–2005)[16]

Ghana (1979, 1982)[16]

Liberia (1989–2006)[16]

Madagascar (2002)[16]

Mozambique (1980)[16]

Rwanda (1995)[16]

Sierra Leone (1997–1998)[16]

Sudan (1991)[16]

Tunisia (1867)

Egypt (1876, 1984)

Kenya (1994, 2000)

Morocco (1983, 1994, 2000)

Nigeria (1982, 1986, 1992, 2001, 2004)

South Africa (1985, 1989, 1993)

Zambia (1983)

Zimbabwe (1965, 2000, 2006[16] (see Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe)

Americas

Antigua and Barbuda (1998–2005)[16]

Argentina (1827, 1890, 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2002-2005[16] (see Argentine debt restructuring))

Bolivia (1875, 1927,[16] 1931, 1980, 1986, 1989)

Brazil (1898, 1902, 1914, 1931, 1937, 1961, 1964, 1983, 1986-1987,[16] 1990[16])

Canada (Alberta) (1935)[16]

Chile (1826, 1880, 1931, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1983)

Colombia (1826, 1850, 1873, 1880, 1900, 1932, 1935)

Costa Rica (1828, 1874, 1895, 1901, 1932, 1962, 1901, 1932, 1962, 1981, 1983, 1984)

Dominica (2003–2005)[16]

Dominican Republic (1872, 1892, 1897, 1899, 1931, 1975-2001[16] (see Latin American debt crisis), 2005)

Ecuador (1826, 1868, 1894, 1906, 1909, 1914, 1929, 1982, 1984, 2000, 2008)

El Salvador (1828, 1876, 1894, 1899, 1921, 1932, 1938, 1981-1996[16])

Grenada (2004–2005)[16]

Guatemala (1933, 1986, 1989)

Guyana (1982)

Honduras (1828, 1873, 1981)

Jamaica (1978)

Mexico (1827, 1833, 1844, 1850,[16] 1866, 1898, 1914, 1928-1930s, 1982)

Nicaragua (1828, 1894, 1911, 1915, 1932, 1979)

Panama (1932, 1983, 1983, 1987, 1988-1989[16])

Paraguay (1874, 1892, 1920, 1932, 1986, 2003)

Peru (1826, 1850,[16] 1876, 1931, 1969, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984)

Surinam (2001–2002)[16]

Trinidad and Tobago (1989)

United States (1779 (devaluation of Continental Dollar), 1790, 1862,[17] 1933 (see Executive Order 6102),[16] 1971 (Nixon Shock)

9 states (1841–1842)[16]

10 states and many local governments (1873-83 or 1884)[16]

Uruguay (1876, 1891, 1915, 1933, 1937,[16] 1983, 1987, 1990, 2003)

Venezuela (1826, 1848, 1860, 1865, 1892, 1898, 1982, 1990, 1995-1997,[16] 1998,[16] 2004)

Asia

China (1921, 1932,[16] 1939)

Japan (1942, 1946-1952[16])

India (1958, 1969[citation needed], 1972)

Indonesia (1966, 1998, 2000, 2002)

Iran (1992)

Iraq (1990)

Jordan (1989)

Kuwait (1990–1991)[16]

Myanmar (1984,[16] 1987,[16] 2002)

Mongolia (1997–2000)[16]

The Philippines (1983)

Solomon Islands (1995–2004)[16]

Sri Lanka (1980, 1982, 1996[16])

Vietnam (1975)[16]

Europe

Albania (1990)

Austria-Hungary (1796, 1802, 1805, 1811, 1816, 1868)

Austria (1938, 1940, 1945[16])

Bulgaria (1932[citation needed], 1990)

Croatia (1993–1996)[16]

Denmark (1813)[16] (see Danish state bankruptcy of 1813)

England (1340, 1472, 1596)

France (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812)

Germany (1932, 1939, 1948[16])

Hesse (1814)

Prussia (1683, 1807, 1813)

Schleswig-Holstein (1850)

Westphalia (1812)

Greece (1826, 1843, 1860, 1893, 1932)

Hungary (1932, 1941)

The Netherlands (1814)

Poland (1936, 1940, 1981)

Portugal (1560, 1828, 1837, 1841, 1845, 1852, 1890)

Romania (1933, 1982, 1986)

Russia (1839, 1885, 1918, 1947,[16] 1957,[16] 1991, 1998)

Spain (1557, 1575, 1596, 1607, 1627, 1647, 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872, 1882, 1936-1939[16])

Sweden (1812)

Turkey (1876, 1915, 1931, 1940, 1978, 1982)

Ukraine (1998–2000)[16]

United Kingdom (1749, 1822, 1834, 1888–89, 1932)[16]

Yugoslavia (1983)

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