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R I C S Sales to Stock Ratio chart, but by Region now

Released 22 Dec 2010

( Thread in the main section about this topic: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=156581 )


The chart below shows the correlation with house prices.

More up to date version of the chart above (thanks to XswampyX).

Note: In the late 80s there was a delay reaction on prices of about 6 months. But last year prices reacted much faster.


Source: RICS. Link to Source

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US long term unemployment, % of total unemployed for over 27 weeks

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id: LNS13025703Seasonally Adjusted

Series title: (Seas) Of Total Unemployed, Percent Unemployed 27 Weeks & over

Labor force status: Unemployed

Type of data: Percent or rate

Age: 16 years and over

Duration : unemployed/laid off: 27 weeks and over

Percent/rates: Percent of unemployed within group



Edited by northwestsmith2
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House price according to ODPM and median wage according to ASHE ONS regional survey

Not very useful yet but the ratio between median income and house prices does show a natural ceiling even with unregulated mortgage lending going on.

Unltil you get South and the grouping dissovles.


Area	                                           North East	North West	Yorks & Humber	Wales	East Midlands	Northern Ireland	Scotland	West Midlands	South West	East	South East	LondonHouse Price ODPM	                     138,851	153,350	153,690	154,655	162,532	162,740	168,086	171,981	217,505	231,955	271,735	340,006Median Wage ASHE Gross	           381.3	381.3	378.4	369.5	383.6	357.5	393.3	382.0	379.1	421.6	439.8	521.7House divided by median	364.15	402.18	406.16	418.55	423.7	455.22	427.37	450.21	573.74	550.18	617.86	651.73Yearly Gross wage	                     19827.6	19827.6	19676.8	19214	19947.2	18590	20451.6	19864	19713.2	21923.2	22869.6	27128.4
Edited by northwestsmith2
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  • 2 weeks later...

One of the previous charts that I have uploaded to this thread highlighted the link between mortgage approvals and the yr-on-yr change in house prices (post no. 620).

Looking at this chart again I noticed that the rate of decline in yr-on-yr growth for the four periods that we have seen since 2000 (including the one that we're experiencing now) were similar. Plotting these highs and lows in year-on-year growth confirmed this view and suggested that by June 2011 the average price might be 10% lower than that of June 2010.

Below is the chart from post 620 followed by the comparision of declining growth periods:

House price change and mortgage approvals 2.JPG

Historical declines in yr-on-yr house prices.JPG



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  • 2 weeks later...

This is a very interesting chart from http://macromon.word...ng-food-prices/.

Putting aside the inevitability of increased savings levels, higher interest rates, reduced cash availability in the housing market, the dynamics associated to busted bubbles and so on that will crush housing in the UK, here is another factor that is rarely quantified: increasing food prices in the face of stagnant wages.

What we have here is a chart that shows how income is spent on various categories, based on the level of 'development' of a country. It is a good proxy to determine the effect of rising food prices on people's spending behaviour. To see what a doubling of food prices does, move to the left along the x axis to the appropriate level. Based on my readings the UK and US are already at the line between middle and high income countries (at least 10% spending on food) even though housing prices hasn't caught up with this yet (there's still a bit of room left on the credit cards and equity release schemes).

A doubling of food prices (which should come in double quick time IMO) would take us to the line between low and middle income countries. And looky here, I make it a necessary 30 odd % reduction in housing expenditure.

30% fall, just because of one factor... Oh my.


Edit to add: actually it's worse than I thought as the green rent area includes fuel for some reason. We know where fuel costs are going. So the fall in housing related spending should be that much more dramatic. Not by choice, out of necessity.

Edited by _w_
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1. The number of people in both part-time and temporary jobs because they are unable to

find full-time or permanent work has increased sharply during the recession

• The previous peak of part-time workers unable to find full-time work was in Q4 1994 after the

recession of the early 90’s. The number reached 846,000 and levels stayed high for several

years before declining again. The current rise began in 2008 Q3 to reach 1,041,000 in Q4


• There has also been a substantial increase in temporary workers unable to find permanent

work increasing by 40 per cent since the recession began. Note that temporary and part-time

work are not mutually exclusive, so the same worker may be counted in both measures

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