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HPvsEUR.gif

I am trying to explore the relationship between the fall in house prices since the peak and the fall in the value of sterling vs. euro.

The data sets are Nationwide Quarterly Average House Prices for UK (whole) and N.Ireland. GBP/Euro is also shown (x10000) for comparative purposes to coincide with quarterly dates. Ideally I would like RoI HP data as well so if anyone knows where i can get this please PM me.

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Osborne's numbers:

In the next 4 years Government's total current spending will be:

2011-12: £651 bn ........ Projected tax receipts: £551.0bn as % of GDP - 35.8

2012-13: £665 bn ........ Projected tax receipts: £583.0bn as % of GDP - 36.0

2013-14: £679 bn ........ Projected tax receipts: £621.0bn as % of GDP - 36.3

2014-15: £693 bn ........ Projected tax receipts: £657bn as % of GDP - 36.4

2015-16 Tax receipts £691bn as % of GDP - 36.3

Tax receipts since 1963 for UK govt

To make sense of what's being claimed you need to see what they are projecting in tax receipts, I've added in the projected tax receipts into the original post. Clearly the recovery is well under way.

Based on the figures given by Osborne in the Comprehensive Spending Review.

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Year       Tax     %of       Tax income            Income  GDP    difference from                           previous year    %growth increase/decrease of receipts1963-64    9.1    29.2            1964-65    10    29.5        0.9            91965-66    11.4    31.2        1.4          12.280701751966-67    12.3    31.8        0.9          7.3170731711967-68    13.8    33.6        1.5          10.869565221968-69    15.6    35        1.8          11.538461541969-70    17.7    37        2.1          11.864406781970-71    19.3    36.3        1.6          8.290155441971-72    20.8    35        1.5          7.2115384621972-73    22    32.6        1.2          5.4545454551973-74    24    31.9        2                8.3333333331974-75    31.1    34.5        7.1          22.829581991975-76    39.5    35.3        8.4          21.265822781976-77    46    35.1        6.5          14.130434781977-78    52    34.1        6          11.538461541978-79    57.8    33.1        5.8          10.034602081979-80    70.3    33.5        12.5          17.780938831980-81    84.9    35.5        14.6          17.1967021981-82    100    38        15.1          15.11982-83    109.7    38.2        9.7          8.8422971741983-84    117.9    37.7        8.2          6.955046651984-85    128.6    38.2        10.7          8.320373251985-86    138.2    37.4        9.6          6.9464544141986-87    146.8    37        8.6          5.8583106271987-88    162.1    36.8        15.3          9.4386181371988-89    176.8    36.1        14.7          8.3144796381989-90    189.8    35.4        13          6.8493150681990-91    201.2    34.9        11.4          5.6660039761991-92    205.3    33.8        4.1          1.9970774481992-93    205.4    32.7        0.1          0.0486854921993-94    211.8    31.8        6.4          3.0217186021994-95    232.2    33        20.4          8.7855297161995-96    250    33.6        17.8          7.121996-97    269.4    34        19.4          7.2011878251997-98    296    35.1        26.6          8.9864864861998-99    316.5    35.5        20.5         6.4770932071999-00    335.3    35.5        18.8          5.6069191772000-01    359.3    36.3        24          6.6796548842001-02    369.1    35.8        9.8          2.6551070172002-03    375    34.3        5.9          1.5733333332003-04    397    34.3        22          5.5415617132004-05    427.1    35.2        30.1          7.0475298522005-06    456.8    35.9        29.7          6.5017513132006-07    486    36.1        29.2          6.0082304532007-08    516    36.4        30          5.8139534882008-09    508    35.4        -8          -1.574803152009-10    479.7    34.1        -28.3          -5.8995205342010-11    516    35        36.3          7.0348837212011-12    551    35.8        35          6.3520871142012-13    583    36        32          5.4888507722013-14    621    36.3        38          6.1191626412014-15    657    36.4        36          5.4794520552015-16    691    36.3        34          4.92040521

Tax receipt growth appears very erratic although it would appear that this past year tax receipts have somewhat shrunk and the ones for this year seem optimistically based on a huge recovery after 2 years of recession.

Interesting that the declining tax revenues have been far greater than the contraction in GDP.

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http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/tax_receipts/table1-2.pdf

An interesting break down of tax receipts over the past 10 years.

These figures seem different to the ones I quoted:

Amounts: £ million

2001-02 321767

2002-03 324731

2003-04 343864

2004-05 371075

2005-06 397912

2006-07 423659

2007-08 451053

2008-09 439107

2009-10 (7) 397001

These figures are significantly down on the above figures.

Corporation tax and NI appear to have fallen off a cliff and stamp duty halved.

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Trade balances, latest 12 months ($bn)

Biggest surpluses: Germany +208.2; China +182.9; Japan +86.8; Ireland 55.7 (!) (excluding oil/gas exporters)

Biggest deficits USA -621.4; Bitain -140.8; India -121.8

http://www.economist.com/node/17312143?story_id=17312143

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates

Oct 21st 2010

20101023_INT400.gif

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report.

UK Total Debt (Gov.+ Households + Companies) / GDP still going up.

(IMO only partially explained by the UK GDP reduction of around 5% since the crisis IIRC.)

First solid data that I am aware of since the McKinsey report showed total debts up to 2008. This BIS report comes all the way to 2010.

Thread in the forum main section: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=153952&view=findpost&p=2771813

Source: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1009e.pdf

debttogdp2010.png

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Very interesting charts in this PricewaterhouseCoopers report (PDF format) :

http://www.pwcwebcast.co.uk/ukeo_nov2010_debt.pdf

UK Total Debt (Financial companies + Non-financial companies + General government + Household) above 500% of GDP.

Notice that this PWC report does include Financial companies, unlike last week's BIS report (link in post #623 above).

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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