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That works out at an increase of 37% by 2050 or 9.5 bn people

Yes, the UN thinks so too. And then stabilisation, and then decline. In the next centuries the fight will be to slow down the population decline. (But if you want to debate this, please start a thread on this topic. It is better if we leave this thread for charts only. Cheers.)

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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At the last Rightmove quarterly survey, almost 3 months ago, house prices expectations were still for increases (and surprisingly so: 12.2% expected falls, 50.5% increases - see below). Rightmove should release the new survey in a few weeks. It should be very interesting to compare the new with this:




Table: http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/9109/hpexpectations.png

Source: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2010/05/ccs-quarter-2-2010.pdf

(Apologies for data not being in chart format.)

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.


Chart from Calculated risk and refers to US unemployment.

Employment Recessions Aligned at bottom July 2010

Edited by interestrateripoff
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This "Ratio of sales to unsold stocks on surveyors’ books" has been the best indicator for short term (2 to 6 months) direction of House Prices.

RICS - July 2010 http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7173&fileExtension=PDF


The chart below matches, historically;

- A Sales To Stock Ratio (STSR) of around 33 to HP stability = zero HP change.

- Any STSR below 33ish have caused prices falls.

- Current STSR looks to be around 24 now (and should keep falling).

- In the past a 24 STSR has meant an annual house price fall of around -8%.


Source: RICS. Link to Source

LINK to thread commenting on this post: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=148963&view=findpost&p=2663281


Edited by Tired of Waiting
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Source: CML Research, Bank of England

1. Total gross lending gives the total value of loans secured on dwellings that are newly advanced by institutions in the period. All the figures were sourced from the Bank of England except the estimate for the most current month.

2. The CML estimates of gross lending for the latest month were based on the lending figures provided by a sample of lenders that represent around 80% of the mortgage market. The aggregate of these figures were scaled up to represent the whole market.


Yay, go 2010, go go go. Oh! :blink:

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One of the many "The Economist" warnings. This from July 16, 2005:


Source: http://www.economist.com/node/4079027

Title: "The global housing boom - In come the waves. The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops" "NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. (...) the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history."

Thread in main section: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=149260&view=findpost&p=2670250

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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Data from Rightmove

"National Asking Price Trend by Property Type"


If I used my MS Works Spreadsheet correctly, these are the % monthly variations, by property type.

Interesting to note the crash of detached properties, from almost +4% in April, to -2.5% now.

RightMove Monthly Change by Type.bmp

RightMove Monthly Change by Type.bmp

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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A couple of charts fro the US you may wish to look at.

Seven Faces of '“The Peril”'

James Bullard


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review

September-October Issue


In this paper I discuss the possibility that the U.S. economy may

become enmeshed in a Japanese-style, de‡ationary outcome within

the next several years. To frame the discussion, I rely on an analysis

that emphasizes two possible long-run outcomes (steady states) for

the economy, one which is consistent with monetary policy as it has

typically been implemented in the U.S. in recent years, and one which

is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, de‡ationary regime

observed in Japan during the same period.


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