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The Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb 2010) predicts that by the end of 2011 we

will have either 0.5% deflation or about 5% inflation, or anything in between:

________________________________________________________________________

boeinflationprojfeb2010.png

Source: Bank of England - Inflation Report, Feb 2010.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir10feb.pdf

.

I think have been hust a gone through a secular downtrend in inflation and interest rates/yields. Not convinced we are headed for secular uptrend either. Chart below from -http://wp.me/pTU04-3 shows secular downtrend in inflation and base rate. Currently the economy does not appear to have excess capacity to cause demand pull inflation, but experiencing cost push. Much hard for policy makers to fight cost push

RPI BASE RATE.jpg

post-25690-12779064978853_thumb.jpg

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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/03/87006/goldman-sachs-up-12-mth-gold-forecast-to-1350toz/

Goldman Sachs commodities forecast.

You too can party like a Squidster, or come back in 3,6,12 months and laugh at them..........again.

Well their 6 month gold forecast was virtually spot on - they said $1,260 and 6 months later today it's $1,240!

Not so good on silver ($20 vs actual $18) or oil ($90 va actual $75) though.

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Inflation adjusted wages over the last 800 years

picture1xq.jpg

zzzzgg.jpg

Let me summarise in my own way, using some nearby dates:

0 / ???? (1348) : The Black Death, 1348-50 kills 1/3 of Europe's population

1 / 1495 (1492) : 1492-Columbus discovers America (and "new markets" for Europe)

2 / 1688 (1694) : Glorious Revolution begins- William & Mary / BofE establised-1694

3 / 1744 (1749) : British fleet defeated by Fr.&Sp. at Toulon; High infl., Mass. 1745-49

4 / 1800 (1800) : Act of Union, creating UK; Prices jump 36% in 1800, highest on record*

5 / 1866 (1865) : US Civil War ends 1865; reopening American market,1866

6 / 1915 (1918) : World War I / WW1 Ends 1918, reigniting World trade

*(note: the chart shows "real prices", so earnings were discounted at inflation rates)

Edited by Confounded
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Some good news, for a change: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for global growth this year, from 4.2% to 4.6%.

1.jpg

IMF Press Release: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/update/02/

Full IMF Report: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm

Thread on the same topic here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=146964&view=findpost&p=2616669

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Some good news, for a change: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for global growth this year, from 4.2% to 4.6%.

Are these the same IMF economists that never saw any of this coming? Past data is okay (depending on the quality), but forecasts from TPTB are worse than useless, they are dangerous because the people making them need to tell nice lies to keep their government paymasters happy.

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Are these the same IMF economists that never saw any of this coming? Past data is okay (depending on the quality), but forecasts from TPTB are worse than useless, they are dangerous because the people making them need to tell nice lies to keep their government paymasters happy.

I think it is better if we keep this thread just for charts, avoiding debating topics here.

I've started a thread for this topic, and copied your reply there. Link: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=146964&view=findpost&p=2617131

Cheers

ToW

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This chart and table are 6 months old, but I think it's still informative.

CFN682.gif

CFN683.gif

http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=2764524&story_id=15179388

Above data from article published Dec 30th 2009.

Below, data from article published 8 Jul 2010.

http://www.economist.com/node/16542826?story_id=16542826

201028fnc795.gif

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