R K Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ed Conway @EdConwaySky 1h1 hour ago Great long-run dataset from @ONS, including this, showing the UK's credit cycle http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_430114.pdf … Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed 6h6 hours ago Residential investment collapsed well before the start of the Great Recession http://******/1OpglFc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 (edited) ^ Chart above - the left hand units should be $ (USD) as referred to at the top of the chart. Edited January 14, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've updated this famous graph which has one glaring omission that no one could have though remotely possible: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 (edited) ^ Spot on. Edited January 20, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Currently about $59 billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 (edited) That's up to Q2 2011. The McKinsey link below gives brief commentary up to 2015 and there's also a link there to the "Full Report". The report seems to conclude that there hasn't been much delevering since the financial crisis and indeed quite the opposite in the UK with public sector debt. It also looks like the UK's financial sector hasn't delevered much since the start of the financial crisis - Exhibit 22. As for "going Japanese" some would say the UK has been there for quite some time in terms of debt (at least since the mid noughties and that's about 10 years ago now - although there are of course some well reported differences in other things) http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging Edited January 22, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 There's an interesting chart ("Economic growth per dollar of debt increase") in the 2010 article below. http://investmentwatchblog.com/economic-growth-per-dollar-of-debt-increase/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automotive Engineer Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm very excited. I found this fantastic tool on the economist site: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 (edited) I'm very excited. I found this fantastic tool on the economist site: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices Thanks for sharing this. It is very good indeed. What a mess the UK is in. Edited February 4, 2016 by bubbleturbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Paragon Group "mortgages for rental properties hit £401m in the final three months of 2015, up 80pc on the same period a year earlier, while Paragon's pipeline of future loans was up 43pc to £595.7m." Total lending for 2015: £1.5bn. Here's the share price crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Cavey Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I'm very excited. I found this fantastic tool on the economist site: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-pricesReally interesting tool. If you baseline from Q2 2008, Canada clearly wins the losing race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The Chart Of Doom: When Private Credit Stops Expanding... Three out of the five major economies are already experiencing stagnant or negative private credit growth. Three down, two to go. Helicopter money--government issued "free money" to households--is no replacement for private credit expansion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Obvious isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Obvious isn't it? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes. It would be interesting to see a London graph of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Another collection of redundant hockey-stick forecasts. This time from Lagarde's mob at the IMF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 gold is screwed. Obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man o' the year Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Another collection of redundant hockey-stick forecasts. This time from Lagarde's mob at the IMF. I think we're gonna need a lower graph! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 (edited) What if the rest of the OECD is as ineffective at escaping from the private debt trap as Japan has been? Then the best case scenario for global credit growth is that it will match what has happened since Japan “hit the credit wall” in 1990. We can guess at that by shifting Japan’s credit growth data forward 18 years, since its crisis began in 1990 while the rest of the world landed in the trap in 2008. Figure 3 shows the result of that exercise—here measuring credit growth as a percentage of GDP—and that predicts an average growth of credit from now till 2035 of 0.5% of GDP a year. It’s worse still when you consider that most of Japan’s post-crisis credit growth occurred in the first half decade or so after its crisis. Take those early post-crisis years out, and the average rate of growth of credit in Japan has been minus 3 percent of GDP a year. Rather than adding to the money supply, banks have been reducing it for the last 20 years. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2016/02/06/our-dysfunctional-monetary-system/2/#2956954b40dc Edited March 12, 2016 by zugzwang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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