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VeryMeanReversion

Killer Summer Ahead

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This seems like a good description of where we have got to now that the bull trap phase is coming to an end.

VMR

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/Economic-F...ures-55455.aspx

A highlight from the article:

Several interesting things are likely to happen this summer.

1) Unemployment rates will go up.

2) Rising joblessness will increase rates of defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Not just at the consumer level – but throughout the system... including banks, states, businesses, as well as households.

3) The stock market will take a dive as earnings fall and investors realize that there will be no quick recovery.

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Guest anorthosite
I'd prefer summer of love.

Is that possible?

Not on HPC. Try MSE.

<hugz>

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Whatever happened to the Summer of Trunchons?

Edit:

I'd prefer summer of love. Is that possible?

OD, is that you?

Edited by Timm

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This seems like a good description of where we have got to now that the bull trap phase is coming to an end.

VMR

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/Economic-F...ures-55455.aspx

Several interesting things are likely to happen this summer.

1) Unemployment rates will go up.

2) Rising joblessness will increase rates of defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Not just at the consumer level – but throughout the system... including banks, states, businesses, as well as households.

3) The stock market will take a dive as earnings fall and investors realize that there will be no quick recovery.

4) Bears will excrete in woods? :)

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Based on my highly unscientific reasoning that bad shit doesn't happen when half the workforce is on holiday, I'd say they were jumping the gun by a season.

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Based on my highly unscientific reasoning that bad shit doesn't happen when half the workforce is on holiday, I'd say they were jumping the gun by a season.

Half the workforce is always on holiday, but shortly to have a rude awakening.

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Thanks for the article.

I particularly "like" this bit:

"...even if households kept paying off debt at the current rate it would still take nearly 7 years to get household debt down to pre-bubble levels."

Wonder how long would the equivalent for the UK be, presume not that different from the US. A killer.

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This seems like a good description of where we have got to now that the bull trap phase is coming to an end.

Summer officially starts on Sunday so the bull trap will be pretty much shut by then and the

weak green shoots of spring will just fade awayyyyyyy

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Based on my highly unscientific reasoning that bad shit doesn't happen when half the workforce is on holiday, I'd say they were jumping the gun by a season.

Sorry to be a Irritating-Ian, Moo, but I notice you joined up in August 07...... Wasn't there some sort of seminal 'bad-shit' event that took place back then, and did that event lead to you joining up? ;):lol:

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Thanks for the article.

I particularly "like" this bit:

"...even if households kept paying off debt at the current rate it would still take nearly 7 years to get household debt down to pre-bubble levels."

Wonder how long would the equivalent for the UK be, presume not that different from the US. A killer.

Isn't that assuming that households keep in employment?

7 years of paying of debt, some people are going to be very upset, I don't think they had planned paying back what they had spent.

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This seems like a good description of where we have got to now that the bull trap phase is coming to an end.

VMR

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/Economic-F...ures-55455.aspx

A highlight from the article:

Several interesting things are likely to happen this summer.

1) Unemployment rates will go up.

2) Rising joblessness will increase rates of defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Not just at the consumer level – but throughout the system... including banks, states, businesses, as well as households.

3) The stock market will take a dive as earnings fall and investors realize that there will be no quick recovery.

With liquidity (cash) being unavailable from the Banks i can see a surge in companies wanting to obtain Stock Market listings in order to raise capital. Would it not make sense now to ease the restrictions on the nursery exchanges like AIM and FOREX in order for companies to attract new capital. After all, we are going to see huge opportunities for investors as asset prices collapse. This might mean a return to good old fashioned capitalism though, which I sense seems to wrankle on this site. It would also give an opportunity to small investors to get a share of what could be a long bull run on the markets starting later this year.

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<br />Manchester vibes in the area.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Just what I was thinking, except the London version, summer of 90, 92.55FM Weekend Rush (to the bass).

White dove anyone?

TFH

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This seems like a good description of where we have got to now that the bull trap phase is coming to an end.

VMR

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/Economic-F...ures-55455.aspx

A highlight from the article:

Several interesting things are likely to happen this summer.

1) Unemployment rates will go up.

2) Rising joblessness will increase rates of defaults, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Not just at the consumer level – but throughout the system... including banks, states, businesses, as well as households.

3) The stock market will take a dive as earnings fall and investors realize that there will be no quick recovery.

See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

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See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

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Based on my highly unscientific reasoning that bad shit doesn't happen when half the workforce is on holiday, I'd say they were jumping the gun by a season.
Sorry to be a Irritating-Ian, Moo, but I notice you joined up in August 07...... Wasn't there some sort of seminal 'bad-shit' event that took place back then, and did that event lead to you joining up? ;):lol:

dammit - you beat me to it!

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Guest spp
See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

YOU will realise what is on it's way soon enough, or over a number of years...if your lucky!

:ph34r:

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See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

When the excess debt is repaid or defaulted, as opposed to simply issuing more debt to service existing debt. And not a day before.

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See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

I think you've got a point.

We need an 'event' to create the next tipping point. What is that likely to be, when will it occur?

I think that the slow road to death by taxation has been embarked upon. There isn't another 'big event' coming, just the pain that will become the norm.

I hope that house prices aren’t allowed to grow at a silly pace again, but there are plenty out there that would have it that way. There's no leadership. The treasury and BoE can't sing the same tune. This country seems hell bent on coupling the economy to house prices, so a slow recovery will probably relate to slow price growth.

I hope I am wrong but the Governments have too much to lose. It won't be a killer summer although they do say it will be a hot one.

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See you bears still saying the same old crap. More and more desperate by the day.

Look at the indices they are all pointing to the fact that the worst is over. This is no bull trap this is the bottom.

When will YOU realise this!!

So you don't think unemployment will go up to 3 million?

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