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Realistbear

New Mortgage Lending Falls -- Cml

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More houses sold but less money was advanced to buy them. What does that say to you, Sherlock?

House are 20% cheaper and bank require larger deposits. Of course the amount for each loan has fallen.

Is unemployment going up or down Hamish?

February claimants 130,000. Latest month claimants 39,000.

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Is unemployment going up or down Hamish?
February claimants 130,000. Latest month claimants 39,000.

Thank you for answering the question, even if it was aimed at Hamish. Nice of you to confirm that unemployment is still rising. I'm sure this will be of great help in keeping the recovery going.

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February claimants 130,000. Latest month claimants 39,000.

So an increase of 39 000 new claimants is a fall in unemployment? Nice Bull Math.

National Stats

Makes for very unhappy reading, some quotes:

"The claimant count was 1.54 million in May 2009. It is up 39,300 over the previous month and up 726,100 over the year. The claimant count has not been higher since July 1997."

"The total number of people in employment for the three months to April 2009 was 29.11 million, down 271,000 over the quarter and down 399,000 over the year. This is the largest quarterly fall in the number of people in employment since comparable records began in 1971."

"The number of jobs fell by 108,000 between December 2008 and March 2009 to reach 31.19 million. The sector showing the largest fall over the quarter was manufacturing which fell by 78,000 to reach 2.94 million, the lowest figure since comparable records began in 1978."

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Since last November, unemployment has certainly climbed significantly.

However, in the same period housing transactions have increased 55%.

The general HPC assumption that unemployment and the housing market are directly linked ~ appears to be founded on a myth.

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The general HPC assumption that unemployment and the housing market are directly linked ~ appears to be founded on a myth.

Surely no job = no money?? which will not just impact house prices but everything that relies on people spending..or is it not that simple..

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Is unemployment going up or down Hamish?

And have the Chinese finished stocking up on cheap resources or not? Is the US economy fit again? Did consumer spending go up again last month? Are mortgages getting cheaper? Is lending to business going up by a considerable amount? Or at all? Has the UK govt cleared its massive debt? Has the UK population cleared its massive debt? I just don't understand where people think money will come from to fuel an economy anywhere near that of 2006/07.

Even if the recession ends, the alternative is not strong growth. It may be high unemployment and little movement at all.

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More houses sold but less money was advanced to buy them. What does that say to you, Sherlock?

I thought that the CML figures were more money was advanced to buy houses, just less to remortgage (why bother when rates are so low?).

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Since last November, unemployment has certainly climbed significantly.

However, in the same period housing transactions have increased 55%.

The general HPC assumption that unemployment and the housing market are directly linked ~ appears to be founded on a myth.

So where do you think house prices are going to be at the end of December 2009. I say 10%-12% down from here.

What's your call?

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Surely no job = no money?? which will not just impact house prices but everything that relies on people spending..or is it not that simple..

Of the few hundred thousand extra unemployed, some may want to buy but cannot. But these are out-weighed by the increasing numbers among the 30M working who want to buy and who can.

Do you like to appear ignorant on purpose Rinoa?

Why not make a counter argument if you have one?

Edited by Rinoa

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Rinoa, you think there is no link between the housing market and employment levels?

Not so far. Check the facts. Unemployment up, but house sales up 55%!

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Not so far. Check the facts. Unemployment up, but house sales up 55%!

And you have no interest in breaking the numbers down and asking yourself why? You take it as a self evident truth?

55% up from nothing.

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And you have no interest in breaking the numbers down and asking yourself why? You take it as a self evident truth?

55% up from nothing.

Why do you say there were no houses being sold last November when there clearly were?

Edited by Rinoa

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Why do you say there were no houses being sold last November when there clearly were?

Rather than stating the % why not state how many houses where sold.

Post sales figures from Jan 2006 to present for each month.

% can be very misleading.

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unemploymenthouseprices.png w416.png

Thanks to libspero

Recent recessions are usually the result of the BoE increasing base rates to stop inflation getting out of control.

Rates go up, house prices come down.

But the cause of this recession was different. Rates have fallen, not increased. For the vast majority, this has made houses cheaper not more expensive as has been the case historically.

Maybe that makes a difference.

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Recent recessions are usually the result of the BoE increasing base rates to stop inflation getting out of control.

Rates go up, house prices come down.

But the cause of this recession was different. Rates have fallen, not increased. For the vast majority, this has made houses cheaper not more expensive as has been the case historically.

Maybe that makes a difference.

And still, the crash continues. 1983_red_wine.gif

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Not according to the latest indices.

The bull trap, have been predicting it all year.

Possibly a small rise this month, maybe for the next two months, then the falls will start in earnest. Expect falls of -2% or greater every month from September through 'til March 2010.

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