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Alfie Moon

Rightmove And Nationwide - Predictions?

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Both up 2% or so

Sounds about right, though I'd expect RM to be higher than NW.

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Both up 2% or so

I have to agree.

Not that it means that the crash's over, mind :lol:

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I have to agree. Not that it means that the crash's over, mind :lol:

Shhh. ;)

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The only way NW won't be up is if the recent increase in volumes has made more sellers cut their losses than hang on for higher prices. Otherwise I think we'll see increases of 1-2%. As above, totally to be expected in this phase of the crash as the last suckers get bled by the banks and other leaches.

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Rightmove is utterly meaningless - it's based only on asking prices, it's not mix adjusted in any meaningful way, and it's only based on new additions to the RM site, meaning that any reductions in asking prices on pwoperdees that have been on the books for a little while are excluded. In short it's worthless. This is borne out by the ludicrous volatility of the index. This month's figures could easily be anything between about +5% and -5%.

NW - I can't begin to imagine. It does seem that we may be in a bit of a bounce... so somewhere between -0.5% and +1.5% is my best guess?

Edited by the flying pig

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Depends on whether they tell the truth. Ignore them and use land registry figures, a little delayed but a real reflection of events.

Never buy a house if you think you may have any dificulty selling it. (so that rules out 2009/10 then....)

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Predictions

No 'significant recovery' in house prices as lending falls, says CML

House prices will not see a significant recovery in the coming months, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned, as figures show mortgage lending dropped further last month.

It said mortgage numbers fell a further 2 per cent in May, following a decline of 9 per cent the previous month.

It brings gross mortgage lending to just £10.3 billion, the second lowest level since the CML began its current series in 2000 and 58 per cent lower than this time last year.

the Bank of England said in its Trends in Lending report that mortgage lending fell from £8.8 billion in April to £8.6 billion in May.

David Hollingworth, of mortgage brokers London & Country, said: "Although there have been more encouraging signs of buyers returning to the market these subdued lending figures act as a stark reminder that mortgage availability remains restricted. "

And Nick Hopkinson, of preropty recovery specialist Property Portfolio Rescue, said: "The dire lending figures demonstrate what a Herculean task it is to get a mortgage at the moment. Even where buyers qualify with a huge deposit and perfect credit rating, rising unemployment and consumer concerns about taking on more debt mean we will not see any recovery in house sales this year."

I could go on and on and on...........despite a few blips of upward trends due to a 60% drop in property instructions, there can be little doubt that property will start to show significant falls soon. Mortgage lending is restricted, interest rates are starting to go up, at the weekend we were told there were 97% fewer mortgages available for FTB's and people even with a hefty deposit still stood a 2 in 3 chance of being turned down.

Last week we also heard that even borrowers who had had offers were being left high and dry :

Homebuyers Left High and Dry as Mortgage Offers Cancelled

And that :

Realistic Valuations Are Breaking Chains

If we are talking RM , as you know Miles Shipside has been saying since January 2009 that sellers needed to reduce prices 25% (that has to be 30% now):

In March he said: Rightmove Index: Raised Asking Price Doing More Harm than Good

The latest release of Rightmove's house price index shows asking prices on UK property rose 0.9% this month compared to last month.

The report admits that agent's are being forced to up initial advertising prices to win new instructions, amid the fierce competition for the few quality properties that are currently being put onto the market.

That makes the asking price rise, for me, more like bad news than good news. I understand that agent's are trying to survive in a difficult market, but we need to firm out the price drops that we have had, before we can ascertain if they are enough to bring the market to bottom, and accelerate any further drop that may be necessary

In short, by humouring unrealistic vendors over asking prices, agents may be doing nothing more than prolonging their own misery.

The report also said that lack of mortgage availability is hindering market recovery as sellers who have dealt with the market reality and drastically dropped their asking price are faced with buyers unable to obtain finance. Rightmove commercial director Miles Shipside said:

"Some sellers are still pricing wishfully high, though it is encouraging that elements of the market have adapted relatively quickly to find a new price floor at a discount of around 25% from peak.

"

"Until banks get their own houses in order, the active minority of sellers and agents who have drastically adjusted pricing will remain frustrated by the limited functioning of the financial services sector."

So, after its initial optimism the Rightmove index enforces the realisation that the UK property market recovery hinges on two things: vendor realism and mortgage availability. The latter more than likely hinged on a recovery to the wider UK economy, which in my opinion is also necessary to increase buyer numbers sufficiently to bring vendor realism

Nationwide last month:

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "Although the short-term trend in house prices has clearly improved from where it was at the beginning of the year, it is still too early to say that the market is turning definitively.

During the downturn of the early 1990s, there were many months during which prices rose, only to fall back down again in subsequent periods. "

"In the current downturn, the combination of rapidly rising unemployment and tight access to credit implies that the last of the price declines has probably not been seen yet." ....

......Nationwide said the recent improvement in prices was likely to have been caused by a shortage of homes on the market, due to a combination of lower building levels and sellers either delaying putting their home on the market, or opting to rent it out instead. ...

....Mr Gahbauer said: "If the supply of homes onto the market does increase, the recent moderation in the pace of house price falls may not be sustained.

Edited by Sybil13

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Guest happy?
According to the FX calendar Rightmove are due to release their monthly asking price index stats on Sunday and Nationwide are due to release their MoM house price index stats on Monday. Any predictions, thoughts or expectations?

See: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/index.html...ortanceFilter=|

On such small volumes movements either way are meaningless. The numbers being sold is the only one that matters.

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Nationwide up, not as much as last month though.

would be very surprised to see a fall at this point.

I wouldnt.

With volumes this low, I would be surprised to see sustained rises. Its all "noise" at the mo, but once houses start coming back on the market, prices will fall significantly. The only people selling are those accepting 10% off the price. The only ones that can afford to do that are homeowners with equity. Typically, FTBs dont have much equity and thus at the mo, the low volumes are being distorted by house type.

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Nationwide +0.3%. Similar figures until August, then the crash starts.

I think +0.3% is the most likely N/Wide figure. It has been a pronounced spring bounce/dead cat bounce/bull trap which many of us had predicted.

Although I have noticed a few "bears" still very bullish and buying over the last few weeks I still believe June was the crossover month and with the money markets forcing up the cost of money the main and only real reason for it (see numerous posts about no return on cash, inflation devaluing cash, very cheap finance, better putting money even in a depreciating asset than holding devaluing money etc etc) has disappeared. Money will become expensive. Cash is king when it is scarse.

I expect N/Wide july to show a fall with August and September figures back to the massive 2%+ falls seen last year.

I have read the crash fairly accurately to date and although timing is difficult if all factors are taken seriously it is not that difficult to predict reasonably accurately where we are going.

I still think an average price of around £130,000 will be seen in the N/Wide figure at year end.

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The reason for the current stimulation in the housing market is very simple- it's that big yellow thing in the sky. It overheats the brains of simpletons.

Once it's September and it's lashing down with rain, cold, and getting dark in the evenings, gloom will descend across the land, the market will come to a virtual standstill and prices will fall continuously until the big yellow thing re-appears next March.

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Guest theboltonfury
Could be anything almost.

they are a useless measure as they are mostly miles out.

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I can see Nationwide making the increase whatever it needs to be to get close to the Halifax average indice of £158k

Nationwide is a mutual, they have no need to fiddle the figures.

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:lol::lol::lol: When will you understand that the crash is over. Don't you understand figures!! Are you thick!!

I've called it 100% correctly so far, since I sold my house in 2007.

And it's because I understand figures that I am going to continue renting until next year.

God, my talents are so wasted as a truck driver! B)

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